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Simon

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Headline from NYT:
 

Quote

As Russia Stalls in Ukraine, Dissent Brews Over Putin’s Leadership

Military losses have mounted, progress has slowed, and a blame game has begun among some Russian supporters of the war.

 

Link, albeit paywalled:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/22/world/europe/putin-russia-military-planning.html

 

TL;DR:  Putin has been an idiot.

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5 hours ago, Hermit said:

I want to apologize for Marsha Blackburn, she's one of Tennessee's senators. When she first won, I thought she was mostly a corporate shill willing to destroy us for lobbying money. I did not , at the time, realize she thought A Handmaid's Tale was a life goal

 

Kinder, Kuchen, Kirche.

 

And the blatant hypocrisy at the start of the clip...oh, the Dems want to ignore the Constitution and put results over process...

 

Almost lost dinner there.

 

I stopped watching the video as they were starting to talk about the multi-pronged approach.  That's why it's been working.  They move minds *slowly*.  The classic analogy of cooking a frog.  You throw him into cold water then let it heat up slowly.  Even Trump serves this purpose.  Trump was nothing but having that pot at a full boil first...but that makes great cover, too, and makes the smaller steps seem...almost reasonable.

 

The slow approach also got them the Supreme Court...so now they can start making the bigger changes.  I still largely expect Texas' law to be overturned on the grounds that it gives too many people standing...but that won't stop the Idaho law.  If they can get that one through, it'll be a massive win...they think.  I think it'll mark a second civil war...this one on a state by state level, in the courts.

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12 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

I found this post in the comments of a YouTube video, from "Ganieda Morgan," and thought it worth sharing as one way you can offer people perspective on the Ukraine situation.

 

Terrific analogy sent to me by a (Ukrainian) friend

For anyone that’s confused about what’s happening in Russia and Ukraine, here it is in layman’s terms:

-Ukraine used to be in an abusive relationship with Russia, feeding him, letting him use her car, and giving him whatever he asked for until she built up the confidence to call it quits back in 1991.

-Since then, Ukraine has been working on herself, becoming a strong independent woman with help from friends like France, America, Poland, and others. They give her support, loan her money, and are helping her find her way.

-Ukraine has been enjoying being single for 30 years and looking forward to continuing to grow and create new friendships.

-Now Russia, being the toxic ex that he is, wants her back, and doesn’t want her meeting new people or creating any new relationships.

-A couple of weeks ago Russia started sitting in front of Ukraine’s house & when her friends ask him what was he doing there, he said “Oh nothing, just getting a little bit of exercise in, that’s all.”

-After her friends told her that Russia was potentially getting ready to do something bad to her, he said “They’re lying, they just want you to be scared of me and that’s not what it is.”

-Yesterday Russia broke into Ukraine’s house, beat her up & “took advantage” of her while live-streaming and double-dog dared any of her friends to do something about it. She’s still waiting for help! 🙏🙏


…and Russia says he’ll leave if she agrees not to join the neighborhood watch (NATO), gets rid of her gun and dog (demilitarizes), doesn’t disagree with him ever in public (becomes officially “neutral”), and abandons “woke” ideologies (ok, so I have no more idea what de-nazification is supposed to be than anyone else).

 

Sound about right?

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Surprise, surprise.

 

Putin says 'unfriendly countries' must buy Russian oil and gas in rubles.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/23/business/stocks-oil-inflation-ukraine#putin-russian-oil-gas-rubles

On Wednesday President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia came up with a way to get his opponents to help prop up his currency, by demanding that “unfriendly countries” use rubles to buy the Russian oil and gas that is still flowing.

“I have made a decision to implement in the shortest possible time a set of measures to switch payments for … our natural gas supplied to the so-called unfriendly countries to Russian rubles,” Mr. Putin said on Wednesday.

Sanctions aimed at the Russian central bank effectively froze hundreds of billions of dollars of assets. The actions immediately drove down the value of the ruble as people frantically rushed to turn their rubles into a more stable currency, like the dollar or the euro.

Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the action means that every time a Western country buys a barrel of oil it would be “propping up his domestic currency.”
“If you’re invoiced in rubles, you’ve got to go out and buy rubles,” he said. “I don’t know if there is workaround.”

 

====

 

That might have been a good idea at the beginning of the sanctions (like I'd speculated on).

 

But now, the EU has barred countries from transferring Euros into Russia and the US has barred dollar transfers.

 

It's not going to have as strong of an effect for countries to go out and buy the Turkish lira or the Mexican peso and use that to buy rubles.

 

In fact, buying the Turkish lira might be a good idea. They're scrambling to stabilize their currency by bringing in foreign currency after having 73% inflation last year.

 

Use Turkish lira to buy rubles. Use rubles to buy gas and oil products.

 

Russia at the end of it is still stuck with a currency that'll lost a large chunk of it's value by the end of the year.

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12 hours ago, Ragitsu said:

Yep...blaming Ukraine for Russia's invasion is the ultimate in victim blaming.

 

That's been Putin's sales pitch to the Russian people all along. Ukraine is controlled by "fascists" and Ukrainians need Russia to "liberate" them. Ukraine wants to join NATO which will somehow lead to an increased threat to Russia. It's the only message Russian state-controlled media is allowed to publicize, and many of them believe it.

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37 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

 

That's been Putin's sales pitch to the Russian people all along. Ukraine is controlled by "fascists" and Ukrainians need Russia to "liberate" them. Ukraine wants to join NATO which will somehow lead to an increased threat to Russia. It's the only message Russian state-controlled media is allowed to publicize, and many of them believe it.

 

Such messaging resonates well with far too many right-wingers at home (they seem to be operating on "She was asking for it." logic); then again, there hasn't been an invasion they didn't like.

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57 minutes ago, Ragitsu said:

 

Such messaging resonates well with far too many right-wingers at home (they seem to be operating on "She was asking for it." logic); then again, there hasn't been an invasion they didn't like.

 

I've seen all sorts of comments about, "Why is Biden worried about that invasion rather than the invasion through our own southern border?"

 

So they're somewhat selective in their likes and dislikes.

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I haven't seen the numbers for a while, but the last data I saw showed that there were more illegals from Canada living in the United States than from Mexico or any other Latin American nation.

 

So maybe we should be worried about an invasion at our northern border.  :angst:

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9 minutes ago, Pariah said:

I haven't seen the numbers for a while, but the last data I saw showed that there were more illegals from Canada living in the United States than from Mexico or any other Latin American nation.

 

So maybe we should be worried about an invasion at our northern border.  :angst:

 

Last I checked, the trend via census data was that the rate of Mexican/Spanish had increased highest in 1990-2010, and has reduced in 2010-2020.  This being the rate, specifically... so the 'problem' is either sudden and recent (possibly b/c of I don't know climate change and economic instability) or that any increase in those population percentage markers is an undesired outcome...

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30 minutes ago, Pariah said:

I haven't seen the numbers for a while, but the last data I saw showed that there were more illegals from Canada living in the United States than from Mexico or any other Latin American nation.

 

So maybe we should be worried about an invasion at our northern border.  :angst:

Garrison Keillor once did a sketch about "Creeping International Canadianism." "Frostbacks comin' through the woods!" <sound effect of helicopter taking off> Portentious announcer voice: "A Canadian takeover of the United States: Could it happen? What might it be like?"

 

Dean Shomshak

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