Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[Cancer]

2 hours ago, DShomshak said:

As for Hamas: What were they thinking?

 

I think it's very possible that Hamas (or whomever feeds them information) knew something about internal workings of the Israeli government and realized this was a perhaps unique opportunity.  It would not surprise me in the slightest if Netanyahu has shifted Israeli intelligence resources and priorities onto internal dissenters; identification and preparations for liquidation of dissenters has long been a fixation of dictators and wannabee dictators, and yes, it seems likely to me that Netanyahu has been thinking like a dictator.  Dictators also have a habit of choosing tactics that are not received well in the West, so perhaps Hamas is trying to provoke retaliation from Netanyahu of a form that will cost him international support, when the West is already wary of the absolutism his faction seems to be trying to build.  Very risky, but it is a type of opportunity that has not existed before.

[Pattern Ghost]

Cyberwarfare against Israel has started. Russian-backed hacker group Killnet is claiming responsibility and making threats of more attacks. A WSJ article (paywalled) reports that US intelligence say there haven't been any serious attacks so far, just DDOS and defacing attacks against Israeli government websites. I'm not linking anything. because it doesn't appear anyone really knows anything yet. No point in posting any rush to be first articles.

 

 

[Old Man]

3 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

1. Disrupt normalization talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel

2. Provoke Israel to destroy itself from within, in a manner similar to American's self destruction after September 2001

 

Forgot to add

 

3. Martyrdom and heaven for killing Jews

[unclevlad]

My, my.  Mamas, don't let your co-conspirators turn state witnesses..................

 

George Santos' campaign treasurer, Nancy Marks, gave testimony about...oh, quite a few Bozo No-No's he committed.  As a result?  Prosecutors file a superseding indictment today, adding another 10 counts, including wire fraud, access device fraud, and aggravated identity theft...the allegation is he repeatedly charged his donors' cards, without authorization.  Along with More of the Same with some of the campaign tomfoolery.

 

 

[Iuz the Evil]

https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-10-10-23/h_72b24198b48f49dae4a02f53b6f9da81
 

Israel has “released all constraints” on the IDF in their war against Hamas. The Israeli defense minister was quoted as saying, “Hamas wanted a change in Gaza, it will change 180 degrees from what he thought. They will regret this moment. Gaza will never return to what it was”

 

This is going to be happening for a while, I think there’s very little likelihood for anything but a re-occupation by the IDF, but we will see what happens. Right now they’re shelling, have cut off power, water, and are massing forces. Oh and Israel is looking really hard for evidence of Iranian involvement (which is likely, in the opinion of most intelligence agencies I’ve seen quoted, but they currently do not have proof of this).

 

[unclevlad]

X is also under serious scrutiny for the dis- and misinformation about the war that they're allowing.  As in, the EU is demanding action...and has a law that allows them to fine X up to 6% of its annual revenue.

 

Musk made another major mis-step here the other day...promoting that followers should use 2 users to track updates.  Yes, well, the users have clear anti-Semitic ties and have spread disinformation.  He has since yanked that one, and X is taking down Hamas-linked users...but whether this is happening fast enough to satisfy EU enforcement officers remains to be seen.  

[csyphrett]

One of the headlines I saw was there was a chance that Trump leaked Israeli intelligence.  I don't know if there will be any confirmation until after his 91 counts and two civil suits are settled.

CES

[Lord Liaden]

No firm evidence of that yet, but there is a credible time line. Trump blabs secrets to Putin six years ago, Russia passes that info on to Iran (perhaps in exchange for drones), Iran forwards it to their puppet Hamas, which uses it to help penetrate Israel's "iron dome" air defense.

 

If that connection could be established, it appears to satisfy the American legal definition of "treason."

[DShomshak]

As it happens, today's episode of "Today Explained" went into the roots of Hamas' attack:

 

 

 

One part that sttood out to me, though, is the co-dependency between Netanyhu and Hamas. For years, Netanyahu and his far-right affiliates have resisted a two-state solution with the Palestinians because they want all the territory of ancient Israel, but without the Palestinians who inconveniently live there. Or at least not granting them citizenship, which would mean the end of Israel as a Jewish state. So every attack from Hamas or similar groups is *very convenient* at forestalling any chance of peace. But conversely -- as Beau points out -- every military crackdown from Israel in response to those attacks is *very convenient* for Hamas, in generating another wave of recruits.

 

Beau's reminder that Hamas' leaders are certainly *not* in Gaza also makes me realize that I was thinking too small in speculating that Hamas could have made a fatal miscalculation -- that Israel might attempt a, shall we say, "final solution" to the problem of Gaza. Hamas' leaders and backers may well think that sacrificing Gaza would be a good strategic move to re-isolate Israel. Maybe I wasn't paranoid enough.

 

Or, you know, they really are just lashing out in blind rage and despair. Sometimes that happens, too.

 

Dean Shomshak

[Lord Liaden]

FACT FOCUS: Misinformation about the Israel-Hamas war is flooding social media. Here are the facts.

[Trencher]

All the pro Palestinian friends and family I know are completely quiet on facebook and social media. 

 

In old media there are still holdouts calling Hamas "warriors" and trying to focus on Palestinian civilian casualties. 

But the long term of this might be that Palestine and its peoples cause loose legitimacy.

I think the reason for this is Hamas use of social media where they display corpses and parade naked civilian women through the city while the crowd is jeering. 

Social media removes the veil and shows the truth, especially to the young. Maybe social media will be what kills Hamas in the long term. 

[Lord Liaden]

But there's also another side to social media, those who use it to deceive in order to shape public opinion. Like a new BBC video report circulating that cited another trusted investigative source that weapons provided to Ukraine were sent to Hamas and used in the attack on Israel. Except that it was a slick fake, both the BBC and the other source denied they had anything to do with that report. Or another recent video purporting to show Hamas paratroopers landing in Israel and attacking civilians, but which was actually a training exercise for Egyptian paratroopers in Cairo.

 

Disinformation is getting very convincing. Nowadays we have to corroborate what we see and hear on social media carefully. Look to see if any other trusted source is carrying the story. Check the website of a source quoted or cited to see if it's also there.

 

 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Lord Liaden

[unclevlad]

So...

House Republicans have chosen Scalise to put up for nomination.  The meaninglessness of that is growing, tho;  the vote was heavily split (113-99, IIRC), several of the hard righters aren't willing to vote for him...and even some nearer the mainstream.  Proof?  The House is moving into recess now...not voting for a Speaker.

 

Republicans want to try to avoid the circus that played out on live TV in January, but this isn't a whole lot better....

[Lord Liaden]

So if something happens to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris before recess is over, does Interim House Speaker Patrick McHenry become POTUS?

 

(BTW I find it quite appropriate that this group of Republicans want to go on "recess," considering they're acting like rowdy primary schoolers.)

[unclevlad]

Not sure the wording, but probably not.  McHenry is only Speaker pro tem.  Yes, technically, this is the same title as across the aisle, but the status is different.  The President of the Senate is the VP;  the president pro tem presides when the VP is not in the chamber, which will be fairly frequent.

 

And, if you're wondering who that is?  Patty Leahy Murray of Washington.  She's in her 6th term now.  (Brain cramp earlier...)

 

Mmm...ok, Wikipedia isn't necessarily the last word on this, but the page on her notes that she is currently 2nd in the presidential succession order "as of October 3rd."

 

We need a political historian to come along with the line for that day, like "....a day that will live in infamy."

 

EDIT:  and no word.  2 hours, I suspect, of internal bickering.  I wonder what the reporters on the spot do to kill the time....  Fairly soon, it's plausible they'll announce they won't come back into session before T time...to allow a dinner break.

 

[Lord Liaden]

I've heard rumors that there's one Republican in the House GOP trying to flip enough Republicans to side with Democrats in making Hakeem Jeffries the Speaker. As unlikely as that seems, they wouldn't need many. And no candidate polled close to a majority of the GOP caucus. (Tellingly, the most votes were for McCarthy, who's categorically stated he doesn't want the job back.)

[unclevlad]

See, I disagree...particularly if there's ANY other Republican who gets the nomination as well, which was the case for most of the January circus.

 

As soon as 1 Democrat votes for someone who MIGHT win...how many Republicans would switch away from said candidate?

 

The politics of party identification are too strong for a vote like this.

[tkdguy]

 

[tkdguy]

 

[unclevlad]

I think his argument is over-simplistic, to the point of worthless.  I'll grant his starting point...younger adults are probably more likely to use call rejection/blocking than older people.  (But how old is older, for this?  Lots of 60ish people have had PLENTY of exposure to tech for long enough to add a call blocker...or have a standard landline.)  

 

Of those who do answer and interact...how many are actually giving true answers?  Versus, how many are going *@(*#$&@#$@$ POLLSTERS GO TO &&&&!! and give BS answers.  How many polls are organized properly in the first place?  With well-framed questions...this is a huge one...and a plausible cross-section?  

 

 

[Lord Liaden]

Which is why what's most helpful is to look at an aggregate of polls, preferably those with a good reputation. You're more likely to get a picture of ongoing trends.

 

Of course as they say, the only poll that counts is on voting day. 😜

 

Now, below is a wonderful illustration of how polling works, still used in sociology, media, and political science classes.

 

 

[Old Man]

[unclevlad]

So, it's mid-afternoon in DC.  Reports from both NYT and CNN...and even Fox News, which points out that 3 of the votes for Scalise come from non-voting delegates, and without them, another ballot would've been needed, even in the caucus...all suggest the Republican caucus is still FAR away from agreeing on anyone.  

 

Scary op/ed from NYT:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/12/upshot/new-republican-establishment-speaker.html?unlocked_article_code=e4Z2h_qfnKOW9WiNYdXJTdPwkPBKGudJDZWOS7dd803FBOsjeNwD_1Du5cdJFFaPiucr0dxFwu9ZInEpOBhjtQvp9-GBuSU6el6aJyadAXg4pZ4YgMIDfRIz5ghRfvdiWHe-CvzBGW8SmNpFTvYZ9FXgJUAjTilsAD7eG-a-NNEgT8HVW8dGz1Dd0pWjC9UUgiVT2SQR1-bgw1QwEKFfYgXZRGCpN1pKmtU7ldFU0z_x7XjMz2lX3fQc9RB_gzOwltpmIeumgQwwRLZc8dNdDHLjBAKh5vzpHjVROXgFYKG5UO7DnnhQ_AKtQ3rw-rqF3dGy_Xo90jVXcvKEPS-LSPqbp5-u-D49x_3t_Jfe&smid=url-share

[unclevlad]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/12/opinion/scalise-mccarthy-gingrich-house.html?unlocked_article_code=mzNR5FBn1c99_YNbNP1RUdi4tyZolrZWWPHKZ3vRNCPMRTkgpA8iqhuvKTewtQoBxlgD0Oxmsdpkr_1pp_MI6-RegC8Hvb49TjD7QjG1oxjsZ9f1r4RB1fHLSBp4i0G6t2p6BkAUdBIWnXjrlce5K4tG6p9lE-GCjyIap23mbftJKs7lfk2Dv3PaokNlUhb_l5oDX6gaN7vlFD_lHRrYGXdPJxV4kVUCzz5uvBOMuZEgqCUyIZ5rPGxA0lVQ-T1JfzxaX3SmMxOXgSgpyCzl0YnuRx4qzcknXRlJZTlFEySQ4f57n7XLnDLvY9PuvGiRFtd4hJ6Anc59IF86PGI1qzpuY2MHe3BMCTM&smid=url-share

 

A historian's perspective on how the Republicans reached the point they're at now.  I didn't realize RINO dates all the way back to the early 90s.....

[Old Man]

Great articles but they use many words to say "the GOP is corrupt".