Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[Michael Hopcroft]

To be fair to Donald Trump -- not a phrase I expect to use much -- there was an "If" in his threat.

 

At the moment, though, I trust the rationality of North Korea's leadership more than I trust the rationality of ours. Which is terrifying in itself.

 

Dean Shomshak

The nature of Trump's threat is that is was worded in a way that makes the cause more likely. It's like he's saying "I want you to attack us so we can annihilate you, because you deserve annihilation and i need an excuse."

 

Of course, he has no problem with South Korea and Japan dying in the process of his vendetta. Because hey, he's great and everyone should respect fear appreciate be amused by him.

 

We're all mad here.

[Sociotard]

Would it really be so bad to finally formally recognize North Korea as a sovereign, legitimate country?  

[Pariah]

Why, do you think it would help?

[Sociotard]

Yes. NK has ever lived in fear of being overthrown. Thats the whole reason they have their nuke program.  Recognizing them would be such a small gesture, but I think it would help.

[Cassandra]

Yes. NK has ever lived in fear of being overthrown. Thats the whole reason they have their nuke program.  Recognizing them would be such a small gesture, but I think it would help.

 

During Bush 41 the U.S. removed all it's nuclear weapons from South Korea because North Korea said it was precondition in talking about preventing it from building Nuclear Weapons.  They proceeded to negotiate and stall until they tested one in 2006.

 

Diplomacy will have no effect because they simply can not be trusted to abide by any agreement.  At best we can hope for is they want the same multi-billion dollar deal that we have with Iran (i.e.,, the promise not to build more weapons for money.)

 

That's the best case scenario.

[Michael Hopcroft]

For the first time a kneeldown during the National Anthem has taken place in major league baseball. Oakland A's catcher Bryce Maxwell took a knee before a home game in Oakland Saturday.

 

Maxwell is a military son. He was born on an army base in Germany. He is by no means a superstar, hitting .244 with three homeruns and 21 RBI in 71 major league games this season. And the A's seem to be backing him unequivocally.

[Lawnmower Boy]

I have to admit being a bit torn, here. Nuclear war with North Korea wouldn't be so bad. They don't have many nukes, and they'd be firing them at you guys. I mean, maybe they'd miss by a bit and hit Canada by mistake, but probably not. And in the mean time, it's been really fun watching Kim Jong Un own your President on TV. Pretty much the best thing about this insane reality TV show I fell into last November.

 

On the other hand, there's a good chance that some posters would get blowed up, and I'd miss you guys. I mean, sure, some of you have some weird ideas about Aquaman, but I think, at the end of the day, I'd find that wouldn't matter  very much. 

 

So: Takedowns versus someone I know getting turned into superheated, irradiated plasma. It's a pretty tough call. It's a good thing that the Pyongyang regime seems to be on top of the translation game. Gives me hope that there's an adult in the room. 

[Tech priest support]

You know, we're hearing a lot of thinks about how terrible Kim jong un or whatever his name is and how he wants a war so much.

 

Well, I remember a few other things we heard too. Like when the Russians invaded Afghanistan we heard the horror stories about how the rooskees ;)were using poison gas on villages and dropping boobytrapled toys to maim Afghan children and demoralize their parents. (All bunk.)

 

Later I heard how the evil rushuns were supplying ak74s (yes there was an ak 74 model Soviet assault rifle) to rebel forces in Lebanon and how they were so evil they we're using poisoned bullets! (The 5.45mm round the ak74 used had a small hollow space behind the tip to cause it to tumble after entering a body by throwing off the center of gravity. There was never one single case of this hollow proven to contain poison and the CIA admitted they manufactured that story just to make the Soviets look bad.)

 

Then of course we had the sobbing Kuwait woman blubbering to Congress about the eyerakees were pulling babies out of incubators in Kuwait hospitals before Bush 1 went to war on Iraq. (Later cheerfully admitted to be a lie to stir up public support.)

 

Most recently DUH-bya told us how Saddum hoosane was building up an arsenal of WMDs and could make mushroom clouds sprout in 'murca. (The only place these weapons ever existed was on fox news.)

 

So now we have this Korean Pillsbury dough boy and we're being told he's ''Gonna nukee 'merica! Make 'merica go boom! ''

 

You can call me a cynical bastard, or most any kind of bastard for that matter, but I remember all the things we were told that were happening before we got dragged into 'involvement', if not war, by a Republican president that weren't.

[Lord Liaden]

One significant difference here is that it's the North Korean government that's trumpeting they have these terrible weapons and are prepared to use them. And then they provide incontestable proof that they have them, by exploding nuclear bombs where other countries can detect them, and firing missiles over other countries' airspace.

 

Another difference is many years of reporting, from many sources, that the NK government is leaving their own people hungry so they can buy more toys for the army. If they're willing to make their own suffer, what would they do to outsiders?

 

Still, I doubt they'll have the capacity to devastate North America any time soon. Japan, though, very possibly. South Korea, almost certainly.

[Michael Hopcroft]

It wouldn't take nukes for NK to decimate South Korea. Seoul, the South Korean capital, is perilously close to the border, to the point that it's well within the range of Kim's longest-range artillery. They wouldn't even need to send troops across the border to devastate South Korea. (When the North invaded the South in 1950 it only took a few days to sweep into Seoul.)

[Michael Hopcroft]

Quick question: how do you think Kim's army would perform in an actual conflict against a similarly-equipped adversary? Remember that Saddam Hussein had one of the largest, best-equipped armies in the Gufl region -- which completely folded when faced with the Americans invading twice. It was the insurgency following that conflict that, for all intents and purposes, defeated the Americans -- not Saddam's large, expensive army.

 

I suspect North Korea's army would fold just as quickly, if not more so, if faced with an American invasion. That's a large part of the reason Kim Jong Un wants nukes -- so his army will not have to face that test.

 

The bigger problem would be China's army being ready to stream over the northern border in response to a US invasion of North Korea -- and the destruction of a trade relationship that has benefited both the Chinese and US economies immeasurably.

 

If the only choices are a pointless attack that invited catastrophe or accepting the humiliation of letting the NK regime stew and hoping it collapses under its own weight, there isn't really a good option. This is one of the numerous situations around the globe where they is no possible American intervention that would not make things much, much worse. America's ham-fisted interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan should have told us that our power has limits. Heck, Vietnam should have taught us that.

[Tech priest support]

Why, do you think it would help?

Well, we condemn some states for refusing to recognize Israel. Maybe we should recognize NK.

[Tech priest support]

You know my evil side can't help thinking that if a real major plague broke out in NK that SK had the medicines and vaccines to deal with it could cripple NK and possibly eg n collapse it. Such a plague could be blamed partly on the endemic malnutrition in NK weakening the immune systems, or just due to an outbreak of a swine\avian flu virus.

 

I guess that the people with the resources to create such a situation either aren't evil enough to do it or have reasons not to. Either they think it would have negative side effects or they want NK as a viable menace. Possibly they fear that since NK is close to China it might spread to China, and China does have an intelligence agency and a viable nuclear arsenal...

[Lord Liaden]

Plus China absolutely does not want a flood of North Korean refugees pouring over their border. Which is exactly what will happen if the NK regime collapses. Its why China can't put critical pressure on the Kim government, hard enough to actually risk making it fold. And Kim is well aware of that.

 

China also emphatically rejects a buildup of American military force on its doorstep. Force used against North Korea will not just result in fighting North Korea. Kim is aware of that, too.

 

Kim has good reason to believe all the tough talk from the US, China and other countries is just bluster and bluff. As his weapons program moves closer to fruition, his hand will continue to strengthen.

[Old Man]

It wouldn't take nukes for NK to decimate South Korea. Seoul, the South Korean capital, is perilously close to the border, to the point that it's well within the range of Kim's longest-range artillery. They wouldn't even need to send troops across the border to devastate South Korea. (When the North invaded the South in 1950 it only took a few days to sweep into Seoul.)

Seoul is mostly not within range of North Korean artillery. That's pure NK propaganda that gets repeated by government spokespeople when they need a convenient excuse for why they aren't doing anything about the Kims. Today's 1960s-era North Korean military would struggle to cross the DMZ at all.

[Hermit]

Well, I was promised the end of the world in the 80s and found out they lied to me.

 

But hey, better late than never? 

 

 

Americans (Or at least our armed forces)  have been in a war for over a decade now. And we are exhausted. So good on NK for catching us when the spirit is probably at its weakest...and by good I mean those rat bastards.

 

Exactly why Trump is egging on Iran I don't flipping know. Did we think the Middle East needed shaking up again?

 

Because from what I can tell... Iraq still has problems.

Afghanistan is still a huge mess.

Syria hasn't mysteriously settled down over night.

Terrorists  hate us all.

China is still expanding into the sea one artificial island at a time.

North Korea is lobbing missiles over our allies

Russia has taken Crimea and the Ukraine is helpless to do jack, and the US's election process has been severely compromised by the big R.

 

And our allies look to American leadership to solve it, but at the same time fear American leadership will screw it up more  (Understandable giving who our Potus is)

 

 

Meanwhile the Planet is trying to decide just which element it wants to use most to destroy us and seems to have decided a mix is best. Earthquakes and Fires and Hurricanes OH MY! 

 

Which all signs are we brought on ourselves by not moving on Global warming so even our weather is political. Which absolutely sucks "Hot day isn't it?" "You liberal scum!" "Wha...?" 

 

So I'm feeling a bit overwhelmed by it all. I have gone beyond terrified and am now very much into 'oh get it over with' blah duldrums

[Cassandra]

It wouldn't take nukes for NK to decimate South Korea. Seoul, the South Korean capital, is perilously close to the border, to the point that it's well within the range of Kim's longest-range artillery. They wouldn't even need to send troops across the border to devastate South Korea. (When the North invaded the South in 1950 it only took a few days to sweep into Seoul.)

 

While North Korea could bombard Seoul, the question is how long would they be able to.  The U.S. Army is well equipped and trained to destroy enemy artillery.  Furthermore such an attack would result in U.S. and South Korean Air Strikes into the North.

[megaplayboy]

While North Korea could bombard Seoul, the question is how long would they be able to.  The U.S. Army is well equipped and trained to destroy enemy artillery.  Furthermore such an attack would result in U.S. and South Korean Air Strikes into the North.

A 2-4 hour bombardment of Seoul with thousands of artillery tubes would kill tens of thousands, including (undoubtedly) many American civilians living and working there.  

[megaplayboy]

Puerto Rico has roughly 3x the population of the New Orleans metropolitan area...and they're all US Citizens.  Too bad they don't have an NFL team, maybe Trump would give them some attention.  

[Hermit]

Puerto Rico has roughly 3x the population of the New Orleans metropolitan area...and they're all US Citizens.  Too bad they don't have an NFL team, maybe Trump would give them some attention.  

 

I quite agree.

 

I remember Katrina , the press and some Federal types acted like it had hit ONLY New Orleans.

 

Which if you were in Mississippi or the rest of Louisiana absolutely sucked

[Tech priest support]

A 2-4 hour bombardment of Seoul with thousands of artillery tubes would kill tens of thousands, including (undoubtedly) many American civilians living and working there.

 

Uh doesn't seuol have like bomb shelters? Or even subways?

 

I wonder if we could smuggle in and quietly install something like israel's so called 'iron dome' anti artillery system?

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome

 

Sure it would not be perfect but if it stops 90% of NK artillery and rockets in the few hours it'd take US forces to terminate the north's launch ability it would cut down on damage and casualties a lot.

[megaplayboy]

Uh doesn't seuol have like bomb shelters? Or even subways?

 

I wonder if we could smuggle in and quietly install something like israel's so called 'iron dome' anti artillery system?

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome

 

Sure it would not be perfect but if it stops 90% of NK artillery and rockets in the few hours it'd take US forces to terminate the north's launch ability it would cut down on damage and casualties a lot.

An attack without advanced warning would inflict a lot of casualties before the first Seoul resident set foot inside a shelter.  And would continue to inflict casualties, because the Seoul metro area contains 25 million people.  Let's just say they won't all fit inside shelters or subway stations.  

[Old Man]

A 2-4 hour bombardment of Seoul with thousands of artillery tubes would kill tens of thousands, including (undoubtedly) many American civilians living and working there.

I'm actually not sure they have thousands of artillery tubes in range of Seoul, and I'm also not sure they'd have 2-4 hours to operate before being destroyed by counterbattery fire and/or precision guided munitions. If we pretend that half of North Korea's 14,000 guns are in range of Seoul, and that they are of the longest-range 170mm Koksan type, then that is 7000 * 0.5 rounds per minute (generously) = 3500 170mm projectiles coming down on Seoul per hour, or about 15 per square mile of Seoul per hour. Each round carries about 12kg of high explosive. Dreadful! But hardly worthy of the "sea of fire" rhetoric. And we are deliberately overestimating the number and caliber of tubes, and ignoring the horrible dud rate demonstrated in the shelling of Yeonpyong Island.

 

To be sure, there would be many casualties and lots of expensive property damage. I just need more data before I can buy in to the whole "leveling Seoul" threat. And it has to be weighed against the possibility of North Korea developing a credible nuclear arsenal, which would be way harder on Seoul if launched.

[megaplayboy]

I'm actually not sure they have thousands of artillery tubes in range of Seoul, and I'm also not sure they'd have 2-4 hours to operate before being destroyed by counterbattery fire and/or precision guided munitions. If we pretend that half of North Korea's 14,000 guns are in range of Seoul, and that they are of the longest-range 170mm Koksan type, then that is 7000 * 0.5 rounds per minute (generously) = 3500 170mm projectiles coming down on Seoul per hour, or about 15 per square mile of Seoul per hour. Each round carries about 12kg of high explosive. Dreadful! But hardly worthy of the "sea of fire" rhetoric. And we are deliberately overestimating the number and caliber of tubes, and ignoring the horrible dud rate demonstrated in the shelling of Yeonpyong Island.

 

To be sure, there would be many casualties and lots of expensive property damage. I just need more data before I can buy in to the whole "leveling Seoul" threat. And it has to be weighed against the possibility of North Korea developing a credible nuclear arsenal, which would be way harder on Seoul if launched.

Will we be doing counterbattery fire against MRLS systems as well?

The KN-09 can fire 8 300 mm rockets(which have considerably more than 12kg of HE) up to 200km.  Just entered service.  But they have other, older MLRs as well.  Not just cannon.  Rockets are artillery "tubes" as well. 

[Old Man]

Sure, but how many of those do they have? And how many of them could reach Seoul? The Grad- and Katyusha-based ones can't. Near as I can tell they have a few dozen Scuds too, but those can be defensed with THAAD and Patriot.

 

MLRS systems are interesting to defend against as they can fire in volleys and then immediately change location ("shoot-and-scoot"), but can't be emplaced and have atrocious reload times. One wonders if they can be spotted in mountainous terrain by JSTARS or the equivalent.

 

Where North Korea could really do some damage is with their chemical weapons stockpile. Though again, it's really unclear whether those weapons are fresh or not, especially given the sanctions of the past few years. We do know that Kim Jong-nam was murdered with VX in Malaysia.