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Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)


Simon

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No matter how many gaffs Trump or his campaign team make, nothing seems to phase his supporters. This defies all conventional wisdom about modern election campaigns. It really is boggling to watch. :think:

 

The only thing I can actually think of even remotely similar was Bill Clinton.   Whenever a woman came out, accusing him of molesting her, his approval rating jumped 10 points.

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I wonder how much of this is meant as punishment to the status quo as anything else. There is , imo, a large chunk of socially conservative, lower middle class and upper lower class America that feels snubbed, ignored, and taken for granted (And I think they're right about that, oddly enough). For decades, they've seen what career politicians do or don't do for them.... but they've seen it through the lens of dueling propagandas where each side of the status quo tarnishes the other. Should they have fallen for the gloom colored glasses? Well, I'm not sure it's fair to bash them for it when a lot of money has been spent to make sure they did.

 

So... assuming they feel that the democrats aren't going to help them (And indeed are part of the problem from their take), and third parties have no power... well, the only thing to do is take over the GOP ship! And they're going to lash the old standard politicians to the proverbial yard arm and trust in this new captain no matter how mad he seems because at least he's new, he's not one of those who have failed them again and again and again... and if they end up going down into the maelstrom, so be it! At least its different, and maybe when the ship is rebuilt, the survivors will build the next one that is meant for the whole crew, not just the elites...

 

So fly the flag of Cap'n Trump and damn the consequences! Glorious doom is better than even one more decade of being ignored

 

 

But that's just a guess, and I maybe doing folks on all sides a disservice. 

 

Well, since I fall into that group, that is actually more or less true.   I didn't fall for it myself.  I know some though that are desperate enough to, however.    One reason I am sitting it all out in November.  I just absolutely refuse to vote for "a lesser evil" when I personally cant stand either of them to the degree I do.

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So now it's official. A reality show star, a guy with zero political leadership experience, a guy whose greatest talent in business is apparently the ability to turn a substantial fortune into a modest fortune, is now a major Party nominee for the Presidency of the United States.

 

Splendid.

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Yeah...problem with that:  Obama stated (and Patrick verified) that they had shared the quotes prior to Patrick's speech -- i.e. Obama had shared the quotes with Patrick and they both used it.  That's not plagiarism.

You'd be better referencing Biden during his presidential bid...and he dropped out of the race because of it.

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It would also help to look at the responses at the time.  This would have blown over almost immediately for Trump if he/his campaign had simply issued a mea culpa and moved on.  Their continual denial and mental gymnastics on the matter are just making it continue to be a thing long past the point that it needs to be (and yes, we've seen that in the past on the Democratic side -- Clinton and Lewinski)

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Governor Gary Johnson and Gov. Weld are now at 13 percent in a CNN poll. Cracked the teens! They are at 11% in an NBC poll and 10% in a CBS poll. 

Perhaps Trump and his supporters can put their foot far enough in their mouths to gin up a few more percent. Perhaps Secretary Clinton can have a yet another scandal appear leading into the convention to drive a couple more percent. 

 

Soar. 

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He's got a chance to get to 15%. Stein looks like she has zero chance of that. Her ceiling is maybe 6%. The interesting question is who Johnson takes more support from. At the moment, it looks like he takes slightly more votes from Trump than from Clinton. Or, to be clearer, he takes more support from people who might otherwise have supported the R nominee than the D nominee.

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Perhaps. That is most certainly the traditional message on these things. And perhaps that explains why Dr. Stein only has a limited following (she is unlikely to be swaying any traditional conservative voters). But there has been a variety of folks discussing this issue. Here is a 538 article. In essence, when third party candidates are included, the lead that Sec. Clinton has decreases. Also, disaffected Senator Sanders supporters are more inclined to vote for third party candidates when they are included in polls. This seems to imply that the traditional narrative of "upset Republican" is not accurate this time around. So, it would seem that Gov. Johnson is pulling equally from both or possibly more greatly from Secretary Clinton. 

On the spectrum of "traditional left" values, being Anti-war (war in the middle east and war on drugs) are two major stances that Gov. Johnson embraces that Sec. Clinton doesn't / only if strongly poll tested. The typical "but Libertarians want scorched earth environmental policies" cry is deflected by Johnson's more liberal policies in that arena. And trigger issues like Abortion put Gov. Johnson more in the Liberal camp than the Conservative camp.

Soar. 

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I have only encountered  Dan Savage a limited number of times. He generally seemed like a lovely gent. I think maybe he was having a bad day when he had that rant. 

I can't speak for the Green Party but I can speak for the Libertarian party of a bit when it comes to claims about 'building from the ground up and not just running a Presidential candidate every four years'. The Libertarian party is in all 50 states. We run candidates in most every federal and state election. I have been a Libertarian sitting on local county commissions (a voluntary board that submits recommendations to elected folks). The Libertarian party is perhaps more active in national, state, and local politics than a lot of folks realize. 

I think Savage also vastly over calculates potential downsides. And I think that is part of why people tune out some of the rhetoric or run towards the target of that hate. "What? You think Trump / Sec. Clinton is the next Hitler?! Well, I guess I have no choice but to be a Nazi to prove your dumb-ass wrong!"

Soar. 

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