Hermit Posted April 22, 2020 Report Share Posted April 22, 2020 ScottishFox 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrickstaPriest Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 I'm glad for the memes to cool the conversation down. Insofar as economy and death goes. I seem to recall a tidbit of information I had once upon a time that said the Fed has the calculation of an American life being 'worth' 6-8 million dollars. That is to say, that's the estimate they use when they decide if the cost of intervention into the loss of American lives is high enough to spend effort on. Keep in mind that the number may be a decade old... I suppose that's just an interesting FYI tidbit, but I would love to know how accurate/inaccurate that assessment is. I've noticed AZ has had almost no increase. But AZ has almost no testing, and apparently never has. I heard that they had a 'hit rate' of 33% of the tests they used, but that was just from one location. So in short, who knows what the American numbers are? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Sociotard said: The series continues, and the sequel manages to be dumber than the original. I don't know if the link will work, but there was a follow up protest ... at the officer's home! https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10220133035028298&id=1598383277 EDIT: and at 4:09 you can see Ammon Bundy. The guy who took over that building in Oregon a few years back. Sorry, couldn't watch anything close to that long. I have dinner cominig soon, I want it to stay down. What worries me is that...the next escalation is to violence. The good news is the vast majority of comments I saw were roundly denouncing this total idiot...but if they continue to manipulate by showing just snippets (like Brady just being arrested without the prior background) it's gonna be inflammatory beyond belief. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrickstaPriest Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Also, the hundreds of thousands of child deaths are in reference to a UN report. I think they are referring to children not exclusively in the US. The main reason I bring this up is that it means it's not saying we are saving a hundred thousand adult lives by trading them for a hundred thousand children - it's saying that if we don't plan for this economic burden, a lot of US and other children could starve around the world. By that, I mean it's not a report exclusively about US response, but the individual responses of economically vulnerable countries as a whole. Lord Liaden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, TrickstaPriest said: I've noticed AZ has had almost no increase. But AZ has almost no testing, and apparently never has. I heard that they had a 'hit rate' of 33% of the tests they used, but that was just from one location. So in short, who knows what the American numbers are? Their overall pattern is upward. And they're not at almost no testing, but they're still low. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Each of the columns is sortable. Arizona is 6th worst in per capita test rate as I write this. So, yes, the uncertainties are heavily on the "there's more out there than we know of" side. On the flip side, it means rates of severe and fatal cases would be lower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrickstaPriest Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, unclevlad said: Each of the columns is sortable. Arizona is 6th worst in per capita test rate as I write this. Yeah, that's more or less what I expect. A big feature of PHX is that it's dry and spread out. There isn't a reliance on public transportation (unfortunately). That's probably kept us from knowing how spread it is, but you are right in that it also changes how dangerous it might be. The China data being off is pretty sensible. I have wondered today about something else - historical data on plagues and their fatality rate is probably heavily biased towards lethality as well. This is because they had no means of identifying viruses/bacteria unless they showed serious symptoms... It's a topic I don't know much about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 The China data is beyond plausible. Yes, that concerns a lot of people. Mortality rate estimates are...erratic for earlier pandemics. It's not correct to say they're biased towards lethality because one thing we also don't know is the infection rate. Heck, the estimates of the numbers killed by the Spanish flu vary by about a factor of 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrickstaPriest Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, unclevlad said: The China data is beyond plausible. Yes, that concerns a lot of people. Sorry, must have misread an earlier post. 12 minutes ago, unclevlad said: Mortality rate estimates are...erratic for earlier pandemics. It's not correct to say they're biased towards lethality because one thing we also don't know is the infection rate. Heck, the estimates of the numbers killed by the Spanish flu vary by about a factor of 3. Was digging into that, I was curious about per capita comparisons. It's hard to estimate that, true. Maybe more work has been applied towards figuring the infection rates than I thought, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were numerous 'uncounted' infected with those - not that it makes them any less, but that it shows how a infectious pandemic can cause massive disruption if not stopped... then again, maybe I'm just guessing wildly... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 24 minutes ago, TrickstaPriest said: Was digging into that, I was curious about per capita comparisons. It's hard to estimate that, true. Maybe more work has been applied towards figuring the infection rates than I thought, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were numerous 'uncounted' infected with those - not that it makes them any less, but that it shows how a infectious pandemic can cause massive disruption if not stopped... then again, maybe I'm just guessing wildly... Recognize tho... Country # Cases # Deaths Est Mortality USA 848994 47676 5.6 Spain 208389 21717 10.4 Italy 187327 25085 13.4 France 159877 21340 13.3 Germany 150648 5315 3.5 UK 133495 18100 13.6 We know the number of cases is almost certainly wrong, but the Italy, France, and UK data in particular...if they're only finding 1 in 10, you're still looking at around 1.5% mortality...as opposed to the usual 0.1% for flu. And Germany has one of the most widespread testing programs...but still a 3.5% mortality rate. If 30% of 350,000,000 people get infected, a 3.5% mortality rate is 3.5 million dead. If only 3% get infected...it's still 350,000 dead. There's room for a LOT!!!! of slack in that mortality rate before we leave utter NIGHTMARE land. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrickstaPriest Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 23 minutes ago, unclevlad said: Recognize tho... Country # Cases # Deaths Est Mortality USA 848994 47676 5.6 Spain 208389 21717 10.4 Italy 187327 25085 13.4 France 159877 21340 13.3 Germany 150648 5315 3.5 UK 133495 18100 13.6 We know the number of cases is almost certainly wrong, but the Italy, France, and UK data in particular...if they're only finding 1 in 10, you're still looking at around 1.5% mortality...as opposed to the usual 0.1% for flu. And Germany has one of the most widespread testing programs...but still a 3.5% mortality rate. If 30% of 350,000,000 people get infected, a 3.5% mortality rate is 3.5 million dead. If only 3% get infected...it's still 350,000 dead. There's room for a LOT!!!! of slack in that mortality rate before we leave utter NIGHTMARE land. I'm not disagreeing. I think I actually sat down with the numbers and even 2.5 million dead is more than most historical American events (wars, plagues, and terrorist attacks) put together... not per capita, but. My thought is that other historical pandemics might have had something like a 5% mortality rate instead of the high numbers we give them, if they had the possibility of asymptomatic carriers as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazza Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazza Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Sociotard 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazza Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazza Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazza Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazza Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazza Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottishFox Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 3 hours ago, TrickstaPriest said: My thought is that other historical pandemics might have had something like a 5% mortality rate instead of the high numbers we give them, if they had the possibility of asymptomatic carriers as well. Ventilators and modern medicine probably would play a large factor in those mortality rates as well. When I compare the mortality rate of New York to Collin County, TX (plano, frisco, etc.) there is a stark difference (roughly 10% vs. 2.5%). Is that due to the level of stress on the medical system or some other factor, because being 4x more likely to die would incline me to live somewhere else. The few areas I've dove down into the numbers tell me there are probably radically different approaches to collecting the numbers and the volumes of people being tested. The illness being 4x more deadly in NY compared to TX which is 10x more lethal than Singapore... Something doesn't add up here. Also, I miss going to the movies and working full time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazza Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Pariah and Matt the Bruins 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazza Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Lee and tkdguy 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazza Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Steve 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazza Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazza Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazza Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazza Posted April 23, 2020 Report Share Posted April 23, 2020 Las Vegas mayor calls for re-opening of casinos as 'control group' https://amp.smh.com.au/world/north-america/las-vegas-mayor-calls-for-re-opening-of-casinos-as-control-group-20200423-p54mes.html Huh? Is she really risking the lives of people “for science”? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.