Coronavirus

[Old Man]

 

7 minutes ago, Ragitsu said:

People who want to help on the economic front should be protesting against the federal government in order to receive more than a one-time paltry check

 

I'm trying to keep this on topic, and not veer off into something that belongs in the Political Thread.  But you are absolutely right here.  While it's true that recessions have casualties, they do not have exponentially growing casualties.  And while there is nothing that can be done about the virus directly, government stimulus can protect most people from a recession.  There's no longer a valid argument that the government can't afford it, when the government has already spent $6T to keep Wall Street afloat and clearly intends to spend more.

 

Again, the current lockdown environment has barely managed to drive R0 down to 1.  Any relaxation will result in a more exponential spread and a higher death toll.  It's beyond ridiculous that these people can cherry pick one extremely noisy statistic from one state and pretend that it's safe to go back to normal.

[Ragitsu]

7 minutes ago, Old Man said:

 

 

I'm trying to keep this on topic, and not veer off into something that belongs in the Political Thread.  But you are absolutely right here.  While it's true that recessions have casualties, they do not have exponentially growing casualties.  And while there is nothing that can be done about the virus directly, government stimulus can protect most people from a recession.  There's no longer a valid argument that the government can't afford it, when the government has already spent $6T to keep Wall Street afloat and clearly intends to spend more.

 

Again, the current lockdown environment has barely managed to drive R0 down to 1.  Any relaxation will result in a more exponential spread and a higher death toll.  It's beyond ridiculous that these people can cherry pick one extremely noisy statistic from one state and pretend that it's safe to go back to normal.

 

Sorry. I'll try not to let the politics of this crisis bleed over here so much.

[Old Man]

58 minutes ago, Pattern Ghost said:

Very not safe for work rant:

 

Even moving the months to the back end of the loan just means accumulating more interest on the principal, unless that too is accounted for.

[Lord Liaden]

50 minutes ago, ScottishFox said:

 

Also, I keep seeing this false dichotomy of choosing economics or lives.  They are very much related.  There have been multiple studies on the link between unemployment and increased rates of suicide and death from lack of food, medicine, shelter, etc.

 

I'd like to think that most people who are concerned with the severity of the shut down are worried that we'll do more damage than good - in terms of total lives lost - and are not just thinking about $$.

 

The fact that the initial IMHE estimates of 500k dead in the UK if they do nothing and 250k dead if they take action being reduced to 20k makes me seriously concerned that the lethality of this bug was grossly over-estimated and we'll end up losing more lives to the economic and social ruin (mental health, increased rates of domestic abuse/homicide, drug addiction, etc.).

 

As the absolutely magnificent Internet ranter linked to above eloquently expresses it, there's a great deal the government and financial institutions have it within their power to do, right now, to ameliorate the financial burden on the public. Sadly, I've seen little from the current American administration to lead me to believe they're more concerned with lives lost than with $$. While you're (legitimately) concerned over a false dichotomy between economics and lives, I'm concerned over a false dichotomy between saving lives from preventative measures, and saving lives from opening the economy.

 

As for estimates of mortality from the IMHE, their methodology is questioned by other prestigious medical organizations: https://www.forbes.com/sites/hershshefrin/2020/04/18/what-makes-the-covid-19-mortality-forecasts-upon-which-the-white-house-relies-seem-so-low/#444c620e2f70

[Old Man]

4 minutes ago, Ragitsu said:

Sorry. I'll try not to let the politics of this crisis bleed over here so much.

 

Just trying to make sure no one else gets PMed by people they've managed to offend in this thread.   I try to put medical stuff here and economics in the Other Thread, but the question of reopening America kind of falls in between.

[ScottishFox]

17 minutes ago, Old Man said:

 

 

I'm trying to keep this on topic, and not veer off into something that belongs in the Political Thread.  But you are absolutely right here.  While it's true that recessions have casualties, they do not have exponentially growing casualties.  And while there is nothing that can be done about the virus directly, government stimulus can protect most people from a recession.  There's no longer a valid argument that the government can't afford it, when the government has already spent $6T to keep Wall Street afloat and clearly intends to spend more.

 

Again, the current lockdown environment has barely managed to drive R0 down to 1.  Any relaxation will result in a more exponential spread and a higher death toll.  It's beyond ridiculous that these people can cherry pick one extremely noisy statistic from one state and pretend that it's safe to go back to normal.

 

Here's an example of what I'm concerned about.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-children-un/u-n-warns-economic-downturn-could-kill-hundreds-of-thousands-of-children-in-2020-idUSKBN21Y2X7?fbclid=IwAR1Xt95mutsPUjMfLhP9mKBFlQ7vAXgxbOzBF0OoupNvDZnWgvLRChxREIo

 

We could lose hundreds of thousands of children to this mess and the number of children dying directly to Coronavirus is extremely low.  Certainly much lower than this by orders of magnitude.

[Old Man]

3 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

As for estimates of mortality from the IMHE, their methodology is questioned by other prestigious medical organizations: https://www.forbes.com/sites/hershshefrin/2020/04/18/what-makes-the-covid-19-mortality-forecasts-upon-which-the-white-house-relies-seem-so-low/#444c620e2f70

 

Yeah the IHME forecast was largely modeled on the Wuhan response and data.  Did we lock down as hard as Wuhan?  No.  Does anyone trust the numbers out of Wuhan?  No.  Does anyone really think the pandemic will effectively be over by August 4?  Lol.

[Lord Liaden]

As others have pointed out on this thread, mortality is only part of the consequences of contracting COVID-19. Severe long-term illness is often inflicted even on people who survive the infection. Those can produce disabilities which will prevent the victims from working, adversely impacting both lives and the economy.

[Old Man]

5 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

As others have pointed out on this thread, mortality is only part of the consequences of contracting COVID-19. Severe long-term illness is often inflicted even on people who survive the infection. Those can produce disabilities which will prevent the victims from working, adversely impacting both lives and the economy.

 

Exactly.  This is nothing like the flu.  There is no question it's more lethal than the flu, and it's orders of magnitude more contagious than the flu.  We don't even know if long-term immunity is possible.  We don't even know if a vaccine is possible.  So taking the parachute off now is unbridled lunacy.  We can have an economic downturn, or we can have an uncontrolled pandemic and an economic downturn.  Anyone care to guess as to which option kills more kids?

[Lord Liaden]

46 minutes ago, ScottishFox said:

 

Here's an example of what I'm concerned about.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-children-un/u-n-warns-economic-downturn-could-kill-hundreds-of-thousands-of-children-in-2020-idUSKBN21Y2X7?fbclid=IwAR1Xt95mutsPUjMfLhP9mKBFlQ7vAXgxbOzBF0OoupNvDZnWgvLRChxREIo

 

We could lose hundreds of thousands of children to this mess and the number of children dying directly to Coronavirus is extremely low.  Certainly much lower than this by orders of magnitude.

 

Please note this passage from that article: “We must act now on each of these threats to our children,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said. “Leaders must do everything in their power to cushion the impact of the pandemic. What started as a public health emergency has snowballed into a formidable test for the global promise to leave no one behind.” in other words, the Secretary-General is saying governments have a responsibility to use their financial resources, acquired from the populace through taxes, to assist the populace through this difficult time. Countries with a low level of financial resources need at least short-term assistance from more affluent ones to mitigate these impacts.

 

There is no reason why at least some of the many billions of dollars the American government is prepared to expend to subsidize corporations impacted by this virus, can't be diverted to the populace hardest hit by it. This is not a matter of a response to a pandemic inevitably causing economic hardship to working-class citizens. That's the line the elites are trying to sell us. This is a matter of those who have wealth, those who consider themselves the controllers of national economies, attempting to retain their wealth by shifting all the financial burden onto the working class. "Labor or lives" is a much more compelling slogan than "Lives for profit."

 

 

[Sociotard]

My state, represent!

 

 

[ScottishFox]

2 minutes ago, Sociotard said:

My state, represent!

 

 

 

That is a truly magical level of reasoning skills on display.  Get yourself arrested - on purpose - while you have your kids with you.

 

She needs help.

[Badger]

1 hour ago, Old Man said:

 

Even moving the months to the back end of the loan just means accumulating more interest on the principal, unless that too is accounted for.

 

Yeah, it would make sense just to put a total freeze on it. as if the months of quarantine never existed.

[Michael Hopcroft]

7 minutes ago, ScottishFox said:

 

That is a truly magical level of reasoning skills on display.  Get yourself arrested - on purpose - while you have your kids with you.

 

She needs help.

So do her kids. Especially now.

[Badger]

1 hour ago, Old Man said:

 

Just trying to make sure no one else gets PMed by people they've managed to offend in this thread.   I try to put medical stuff here and economics in the Other Thread, but the question of reopening America kind of falls in between.

 

Economics would technically be in-between too. But, we know how easy it is to lean it in one particular direction

[ScottishFox]

3 minutes ago, Michael Hopcroft said:

So do her kids. Especially now.

 

I feel like they needed it somewhere between birth and when their birth-giver got herself arrested - on purpose - without any thought about what would happen to them.

 

Notice it's the bystander who is concerned for the kids and not their own mother.  Jesus, that's upsetting.

[ScottishFox]

And for tonight's finale.  Bringing to remembrance the only Mark Twain quote I know - the one about statistics.

 

I saw that on the per 100k charts that Belgium is having the absolute highest rate of death and not by just a little bit.

 

Why?  Well, a recent Politico article points out that they've chosen a very... interesting?... way of counting the Coronavirus deaths.

 

They are counting all nursing home deaths - even when there's no confirmation of Coronavirus infection.  Just count all the dead people from the last place people go before they die.

 

One guy in the article points out that they're probably getting twice the real number.  /ugh

 

“Whoever wants to compare our number with other countries has to divide it by two," Steven Van Gucht, who chairs the government's scientific committee for coronavirus, told POLITICO. 

[Ternaugh]

1 hour ago, ScottishFox said:

And for tonight's finale.  Bringing to remembrance the only Mark Twain quote I know - the one about statistics.

 

I saw that on the per 100k charts that Belgium is having the absolute highest rate of death and not by just a little bit.

 

Why?  Well, a recent Politico article points out that they've chosen a very... interesting?... way of counting the Coronavirus deaths.

 

They are counting all nursing home deaths - even when there's no confirmation of Coronavirus infection.  Just count all the dead people from the last place people go before they die.

 

One guy in the article points out that they're probably getting twice the real number.  /ugh

 

“Whoever wants to compare our number with other countries has to divide it by two," Steven Van Gucht, who chairs the government's scientific committee for coronavirus, told POLITICO. 

 

Reminds me of 

 

[Badger]

1 hour ago, ScottishFox said:

And for tonight's finale.  Bringing to remembrance the only Mark Twain quote I know - the one about statistics.

 

I saw that on the per 100k charts that Belgium is having the absolute highest rate of death and not by just a little bit.

 

Why?  Well, a recent Politico article points out that they've chosen a very... interesting?... way of counting the Coronavirus deaths.

 

They are counting all nursing home deaths - even when there's no confirmation of Coronavirus infection.  Just count all the dead people from the last place people go before they die.

 

One guy in the article points out that they're probably getting twice the real number.  /ugh

 

“Whoever wants to compare our number with other countries has to divide it by two," Steven Van Gucht, who chairs the government's scientific committee for coronavirus, told POLITICO. 

 

Well, I do hate when they talk about US deaths and forget to take into population.  Even without considering the weird counting measures of other countries.  You have to do on a per basis, rather than total sum.

 

30K in the US, isn't worse, than 10K would say in Madagascar (random country that popped into my head)  (US population 10x higher than Madagascar give or take)

[Bazza]

“You know the lockdown rules; only dogs are allowed to go for a walk.” #lockdown2020

 

[Bazza]

[Bazza]

[Bazza]

 

ANZAC Day is a special day in Australia and New Zealand where each country celebrates & hours those who fought (and died) on behalf of Australia  & New Zealand. IT is a day where the ANZACs march down the streets., A bit like Veterans Day in America (probably). 

[Old Man]

I'd like a room in the Silly and Ignorant Girls house, please.

[Bazza]

2 minutes ago, Old Man said:

I'd like a room in the Silly and Ignorant Girls house, please.

 

Done. Enjoy your stay.