Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[archer]

On 3/19/2022 at 11:43 AM, Old Man said:

 

Turkey is also in talks to lend their S-400s to Ukraine.

 

Turkey buys a lot of war material from Russia. If they take Moscow's side on this, I'd expect Putin to cut off their weapons access.

 

Turkey's leader, fairly openly, talks about wanting to restore a Muslim Caliphate across the Middle East using Jerusalem as its most holy city rather than Mecca. And with Turkey and himself being the center of power.

 

So most other NATO nations have been somewhat reluctant to sell them weapons. And the US removed at least part of its nuclear weapons from Turkey because it was concerned that Turkey would seize the weapons for themselves.

 

Maybe the S-400 deal will come together. But if it does, I'd expect NATO to have to give up far more than they're comfortable with.

[Lord Liaden]

Are weapon sales from Russia not already under sanctions by NATO countries anyway? Turkey can afford the short-term hit a lot better than Russia can right now. And the relationship between Putin and Erdogan of Turkey has been very ambivalent in recent years, because both have made obvious moves to expand their influence in the Middle East.

 

If Turkey had to find an alternative weapons supplier, I expect China would be more than happy to pick up the slack.

[Cygnia]

*facepalms*

 

Boogaloo Boi's attempt to fight in Ukraine ends in disaster and him fleeing: report

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, Cygnia said:

*facepalms*

 

Boogaloo Boi's attempt to fight in Ukraine ends in disaster and him fleeing: report

 

Brings to mind, IIRC, Hemingway and the push to fight in the Spanish Civil War.  Glorifying fighting, when the reality is something entirely different.

[archer]

15 hours ago, Cygnia said:

*facepalms*

 

Boogaloo Boi's attempt to fight in Ukraine ends in disaster and him fleeing: report

 

C'mon, he's a Trump fan going over to fight to keep Ukraine safe from Russia while Trump is busy gushing over how Putin is smart and how he loves his country enough to go out and conquer another country to add to the collection?

 

This guy's attempt didn't end in disaster but in a complete propaganda victory for Russia, as intended.

 

He even scammed other people into paying for his plane ticket.

[archer]

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, 73, has been hospitalized with flu-like symptoms since Friday.

 

Tests showed he had an infection, and he has been receiving intravenous antibiotics. They apparently waited to notify the public until they figured out he was going to get better.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/supreme-court-justice-clarence-thomas-hospitalized-flu-symptoms-rcna20806

[Cygnia]

Russia's Elite Want Putin Out, Successor in Mind: Ukraine Intel Chief

[Lord Liaden]

22 minutes ago, Cygnia said:

Russia's Elite Want Putin Out, Successor in Mind: Ukraine Intel Chief

 

You'd expect Ukrainian intelligence to report something like this whether it's true or not. Its propaganda value is obvious. But with Putin in full scapegoating mode for the failure of the Ukraine invasion, a lot of his (former) inner circle will be looking to their own survival, including possibly getting rid of him. Still, if the report is well-founded, the choice of the official responsible for assessing Ukraine pre-invasion as a Putin replacement is an interesting one. Alexander Bortnikov is either incompetent or a yes-man, which suggests to me he's someone the elites think they can control.

 

Eyeing China, Japan breaks with past for strong Ukraine response

 

Japan looks likely to take a more assertive defense strategy and to build a more robust military, which will impact the balance of power in the Far East. How China responds to this long-term will bear watching.

[pinecone]

19 hours ago, Cygnia said:

*facepalms*

 

Boogaloo Boi's attempt to fight in Ukraine ends in disaster and him fleeing: report

Once again, the louder the talk, the less the courage...smh. Deserter, and a coward. I am sure his far right friends are a good fit for him.

1 hour ago, Cygnia said:

Russia's Elite Want Putin Out, Successor in Mind: Ukraine Intel Chief

Major grain of salt. Likely trolling Putin into more paranoia and mistakes....

[DShomshak]

Well, I *hope* influential Russians are scheming how to kill or otherwise replace Putin. Though as the article mentions, and Beau argues, Lindsey Graham's "suggestion" was so not helpful. (Additional reason, besides the ones Beau gave: It would not be good for Russian oligarchs or other elites to imagine the US will solve their problem for them, in a way that lets whoever takes over next rally the Russian people behind "Revenge for Putin".)

 

That said, I hope the allies' intelligence and diplomatic services *are* reaching out to those business, political and military elites with words of encouragement.

 

A few times here, I've mentioned the lecture I heard from an old international relations professor about his time with the Roosevelt administration and its propaganda strategy against Japan. Part of the extremely focused propaganda effort directed at the few people in Imperial Japan's government that had real power was assurance that even if Japan offered unconditional surrender, the Emperor would be spared.

 

Nowadays, I hope the message directed at Russia's elites is the opposite: So far, everyone accepts this is Putin's war. No one who isn't his hand-picked crony asked for it. No one outside him and his inner circle will be blamed. If Putin is removed now and Russia withdraws from Ukraine -- completely, to the 2013 status quo ante -- Russia can escape the sanctions and go back to business as usual. Not even any reparations to Ukraine: The allies will take care of that. Zelenskyy is canny enough to sell the Ukrainian people that membership in NATO and the EU, with consequent assured freedom from Russia, are reparations enough.

 

But the longer this war goes on, the more complicit the elites become, and the greater the bitterness and demand for revenge after Russia finally admits it lost. There *will* be demands for reparations to Ukraine. To pay for them, perhaps the allies demand that Russia cede control of its oil and gas industry. There may be territorial demands -- Japan still wants the Kuril Islands back, for instance, and will Russia still be strong enough to hold them? Disarmament demands: No more hiding behind the nuclear shield while menacing other countries. Don't expect too much help from China, which can be bought off with a slice of Siberia (settlers already cross the Amur River, legally or not, into territory the PRC views -- like Tibet -- as a land without Han Chinese for Han Chinese without land. Or at least that's what I read several years ago.)

 

So act soon. This offer will not be repeated.

 

Dean Shomshak

[wcw43921]

Some time ago I saw this meme that said, as best as I can remember--"If I had to choose between free speech and the right to bear arms, I would choose to bear arms--because then I could say whatever I want, because I have a gun."

 

Reminds me a bit of the scene in the first Avengers movie when Loki forces the crowd to kneel before him.

 

It also reminds me of this item.

[archer]

5 hours ago, Cygnia said:

Russia's Elite Want Putin Out, Successor in Mind: Ukraine Intel Chief

 

From my experience with birthday wishes: don't tell who it is or it won't come true.

[Pariah]

2 hours ago, wcw43921 said:

It also reminds me of this item.

 

Dammit, one of the mentioned counties is where I grew up. These counties are are largely agricultural, meaning they all have large Latino populations. Just the thing for insecure white Trumplodytes looking to beat their chests. 

[assault]

5 hours ago, DShomshak said:

But the longer this war goes on, the more complicit the elites become, and the greater the bitterness and demand for revenge after Russia finally admits it lost. There *will* be demands for reparations to Ukraine. To pay for them, perhaps the allies demand that Russia cede control of its oil and gas industry. There may be territorial demands -- Japan still wants the Kuril Islands back, for instance, and will Russia still be strong enough to hold them? Disarmament demands: No more hiding behind the nuclear shield while menacing other countries.

Obviously none of this will happen.

There aren't going to be Ukrainian tanks in Moscow any time soon.

[Lord Liaden]

No need for them to be. There will be Russian tanks in Moscow after sanctions bite deeply enough for the public to grow restive. I believe DShomshak is talking about the economic squeeze the West can put on Russia, and that the longer Russian oligarchs back Putin, the more they'll be tarred with the same brush and subject to the same punitive measures.

[DShomshak]

Indeed; I thought that was obvious. Putin has made clear for decades that his vision was Russia Against the West: The Western world (and a good deal of the rest) have woken up that Ukraine is merely the current battlefield, and is fighting back with a force and in modes that Putin didn't expect.

 

That might change, if Putin expands his war by attacks on Poland, say, or by really damaging cyber attacks. In that case, NATO and others might take a more direct hand -- and gain direct grievances that must be satisfied.

 

Plenty of military experts are saying that Russia is going to lose, as long as other keep backing Ukraine and sanctioning Russia. (And maybe even if they don't.) Even if Putin decides to just annihilate Ukraine, it will be such a Pyrrhic victory that Russia itself might collapse.

 

From what I hear and read, the oligarchs will *not* break with Putin. They are entirely his creatures. That's how they became oligarchs. Likewise, the top tier of military leaders. But the second tiers might not be so dependent on his favor, and so might not be willing to go down with him. If so, I hope that Western agents and diplomats are cultivating them.

 

Dean Shomshak

[assault]

I was reacting to "ced(ing) control of its oil and gas industry" (the basis of its economy), "territorial demands" and "Disarmament demands". This is foreign tanks in Moscow stuff.

[Pattern Ghost]

11 hours ago, wcw43921 said:

 

It also reminds me of this item.

 

Darwin will eventually have his way with the guy in that first pic, I think.

[assault]

You would hope that this kind of Klan stuff would be in the past, but there is always the potential that the response to it could be delayed.

[Lord Liaden]

4 hours ago, DShomshak said:

From what I hear and read, the oligarchs will *not* break with Putin. They are entirely his creatures. That's how they became oligarchs. Likewise, the top tier of military leaders. But the second tiers might not be so dependent on his favor, and so might not be willing to go down with him. If so, I hope that Western agents and diplomats are cultivating them.

 

Dean Shomshak

 

What I've heard and read is more nuanced than that; Putin needs the oligarchs as much as they need him. He's no financier, he has no experience running a market economy. The oligarchs aren't his picked yes-men, they got where they are by being smart and ruthless, which of course includes knowing when to suck up.   They diversified their holdings outside of Russia, but the sanctions from this war are putting those assets in jeopardy.

[DShomshak]

13 hours ago, assault said:

I was reacting to "ced(ing) control of its oil and gas industry" (the basis of its economy), "territorial demands" and "Disarmament demands". This is foreign tanks in Moscow stuff.

Ah, thank you. But given how many things that people thought would never happen have then happened in the last several years, I am not so sure. Before this is over, there may indeed be foreign tanks in Moscow, or something equivalent. Some condition in which Russia has so unraveled, from military exhaustion, economic collapse, and whatever else an increasingly angry Western alliance can inflict, that it literally cannot resist any demands from the victors. I hope someone is encouraging the second-tier business and military leaders to think seriously about such possibilities, and the desirability of steering Russia onto a different and less dangerous path.

 

Dean Shomshak

[Lord Liaden]

This is good news for Ukraine, which demonstrates how waging war goes far beyond guns.

 

 

[Ragitsu]

 

When (US) politicians of a certain stripe start talking, you get the sense that US politics typically move a half-step forward then ten steps back.

[Hermit]

I want to apologize for Marsha Blackburn, she's one of Tennessee's senators. When she first won, I thought she was mostly a corporate shill willing to destroy us for lobbying money. I did not , at the time, realize she thought A Handmaid's Tale was a life goal

[Lord Liaden]

I found this post in the comments of a YouTube video, from "Ganieda Morgan," and thought it worth sharing as one way you can offer people perspective on the Ukraine situation.

 

Terrific analogy sent to me by a (Ukrainian) friend

For anyone that’s confused about what’s happening in Russia and Ukraine, here it is in layman’s terms:

-Ukraine used to be in an abusive relationship with Russia, feeding him, letting him use her car, and giving him whatever he asked for until she built up the confidence to call it quits back in 1991.

-Since then, Ukraine has been working on herself, becoming a strong independent woman with help from friends like France, America, Poland, and others. They give her support, loan her money, and are helping her find her way.

-Ukraine has been enjoying being single for 30 years and looking forward to continuing to grow and create new friendships.

-Now Russia, being the toxic ex that he is, wants her back, and doesn’t want her meeting new people or creating any new relationships.

-A couple of weeks ago Russia started sitting in front of Ukraine’s house & when her friends ask him what was he doing there, he said “Oh nothing, just getting a little bit of exercise in, that’s all.”

-After her friends told her that Russia was potentially getting ready to do something bad to her, he said “They’re lying, they just want you to be scared of me and that’s not what it is.”

-Yesterday Russia broke into Ukraine’s house, beat her up & “took advantage” of her while live-streaming and double-dog dared any of her friends to do something about it. She’s still waiting for help! 🙏🙏