Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[Cancer]

https://bgr.com/politics/russia-ukraine-war-the-unexpectedly-funny-videos-of-the-invasion/
 

Some rather funny video clips.  Lots of f-bombs, though.

[unclevlad]

Being reported today:  FIFA and UEFA suspended the Russian national team;  the NHL (which has about 50 Russian players, and thus likely substantial business connections) suspended all business relationships.

 

Obviously, the degree of world interconnection now is massively, massively higher than in the past, but the level to which this is happening is amazing.  This is the aspect that gives me hope.

 

EDIT:  the ITF also cancelled all events in Belarus today.  These are grassroots level events for tennis players trying to climb the ranks;  there's quite a few of them every year.

 

Here's a rundown of all sanctions:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/business/list-global-sanctions-russia-ukraine-war-intl-hnk/index.html

 

 

 

[unclevlad]

Another report:  a very destructive chunk of malware was being targeted at Ukraine.  Microsoft helped shut it down, and announced several isolating steps of their own.

 

https://www.zdnet.com/article/microsoft-finds-foxblade-malware-on-ukrainian-systems-removing-rt-from-windows-app-store/

[Ranxerox]

4 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

Lots and lots of online speculation along these lines.  Is Putin crazy enough to attempt limited use of small yield nuclear weapons?  Probably.  Can we afford to let him benefit from nuclear blackmail?  Probably not.

 

I'm not buying it.  Is Putin a sociopath?  Sure.  That is pretty much in the job description for being head of the KGB.  However, he is a very, coldly rational person, which is also part of the job description.  It is basic game theory that in order to get any political mileage out of having nuclear weapons, you have to act like that you are crazy enough to maybe use them.  That is what we are seeing, an act.  

 

He is not going to start lobbing nukes just because things go badly in the Ukraine.  Not unless, a major power swoops in and attacks Russian soldiers, and none of them have any plans on doing this.  So, there are currently a thousand things to worry about, but imminent nuclear war is not one of them.

[Lord Liaden]

Although Putin is generally coldly rational, I anticipate his emotional commitment to this campaign will be one of the biggest stumbling blocks to peace. Vlad has long waxed nostalgic for the Soviet empire he grew up in. He's publicly stated that Ukraine and Belarus are part of Russia, not separate countries. It looks like restoring that empire is the legacy he dearly wants to leave. Having to backtrack from that will be very difficult for his ego to swallow, and may undermine his reputation with his fellow Russians even further than has already happened. It will probably be only temporary in any case.

 

Nonetheless, peace talks are currently under way in Belarus between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators. If Ukraine and its supporters can find a face-saving way for Putin to withdraw, the war may be resolved sooner rather than later. If not, it will drag on for months, if not years.

[unclevlad]

I agree with LL here.  I'll go further:  it's not simply his pride on the line as he suggests...I think it's his career, and possibly his life.  If Putin has to withdraw, I feel he won't be able to remain in power, and if things go particularly badly, his removal from office may be forcible.  

 

I think this is possible if the sanctions really do serious damage.  Also, if they seem to be...is that not, in itself, an attack on Russian sovereignty?  And therefore grounds for reprisal?  

[Ranxerox]

1 hour ago, Lord Liaden said:

Although Putin is generally coldly rational, I anticipate his emotional commitment to this campaign will be one of the biggest stumbling blocks to peace. Vlad has long waxed nostalgic for the Soviet empire he grew up in. He's publicly stated that Ukraine and Belarus are part of Russia, not separate countries. It looks like restoring that empire is the legacy he dearly wants to leave. Having to backtrack from that will be very difficult for his ego to swallow, and may undermine his reputation with his fellow Russians even further than has already happened. It will probably be only temporary in any case.

 

Nonetheless, peace talks are currently under way in Belarus between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators. If Ukraine and its supporters can find a face-saving way for Putin to withdraw, the war may be resolved sooner rather than later. If not, it will drag on for months, if not years.

 

It should be pretty easy for Putin to save face, all he needs to do is pull a Trump.  He has created the problem of the supposed shelling of the Russian separatist regions of the Ukraine by the Ukrainian government.  Since this was never a real thing, it is easy for him to make it stop and then claim credit for stopping.  Trump used to do this all the time, "solving" problems that he himself created and maintained and then claiming credit. 

 

As long as neither the Ukrainians or the West insist on collecting a pound of flesh from the Russians over the pain and chaos that they have caused, then it will appear that he has cowed them into submission and saved the separatist from genocide.  What a hero!  Of course, both the Ukrainians and the West will want to punish him and Russia, but will they want it so much that they are willing to subject Ukraine to years of war, death and struggle?  No.  They will do what the Democrats always did with Trump, the sane and reasonable thing.  Just as the Democrats always provided the necessary votes to keep government running or solve whatever Constitutional crisis Trump had precipitated, the West will drop most of the sanctions against Russia and pick up the tab for putting the Ukraine back together.  It sucks, but it beats the hell out of a protracted war in Ukraine. 

[archer]

News roundup

 

I'm not providing links to every story this time since finding links which mentioned all of the information which I found relevant proved to be very time consuming. So instead, I'm writing up the information and throwing in links when the link would be more helpful than confusing or incomplete.

 

====

 

MSNBC tv's daily Meet the Press show on Monday revealed how removing Russia from SWIFT was accomplished: there's a carve out for Italy and Germany to continue making their energy payments to Russia using SWIFT, even to banks which are sanctioned from SWIFT for other purposes.

 

That sidesteps the concerns that Russia's own payment communications system would get a huge boost and also the concern that it would lead to stabilizing the ruble and devaluing the dollar, like I discussed a couple of days ago.

 

Really a genius compromise that no one, including myself, had ever publicly considered or discussed.

 

====

 

Shell Oil is following BP's lead in divesting itself of investments in Russian energy companies. Shell's investment in Russia's energy sector is about $3 billion.

 

In particular, Shell operates in conjunction with Gazprom, which is Russia's largest state-owned oil company.

 

Notable investments

1) it was one of the partners in providing funding for Nord Stream 2

2) the Salym Petroleum Development which is the development of three gigantic oil fields in Siberia. It is a 50/50 owner of that project with Gazprom (Russia's largest state-owned oil company) and presumably Shell had provided most of the technical expertise.

3) the huge Sakhalin 2 LNG plant (Shell holds a 27.5% stake) which exports primarily to China and Japan.

 

Japanese trading houses Mitsui & Co and Mitsubishi Corp, which own stakes of 12.5% and 10% in Sakhalin 2 respectively, said separately that they are examining Shell's announcement. 

 

Norway's Equinor, majority owned by the Norwegian state, said earlier on Monday that it would start divesting from its joint ventures in Russia. (Equinor has been partnered with Rosneft searching for oil in several parts of Russia. You might remember that Rosneft is the Russian oil company which BP just dumped. So Rosneft has lost two of its major western partners. But it's still the largest publicly-traded oil company in the world.) 

 

https://news.yahoo.com/shell-exit-joint-ventures-russias-180818488.html

 

====

 

Russia’s stock market will remain closed on Tuesday, Russia’s central bank has confirmed. (Gee, I wonder why?)

 

====

 

FINLAND on Monday announced it will donate 2,500 assault rifles, 150,000 cartridges for the rifles, 1,500 single-shot anti-tank weapons and 70,000 combat ration packages to Ukraine. Also  2,000 composite helmets and 2,000 bulletproof vests, 100 stretchers and equipment for two emergency medical care stations.

 

They're basing their donations on Ukraine's wish list submitted to the EU and on what Finland has immediately available to send. 

 

https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/21099-finland-to-send-assault-rifles-anti-tank-weapons-and-ammunition-to-ukraine.html

 

====

 

The United States announced Monday it is expelling 12 members of the Russian Mission at the United Nations, accusing them of being intelligence operatives engaged in espionage.

 

White House press secretary Jen Psaki responded to the Russian ambassador’s characterization of the expulsions as a “hostile act” by saying: “I think the hostile act is committing espionage activities on our own soil.”

 

According to the U.N. diplomatic directory, Russia has 79 diplomats accredited to the United Nations.

 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/u-s-says-it-is-expelling-12-russian-diplomats-for-engaging-in-espionage

 

====

 

Switzerland and Monaco have both decided to honor the sanctions against Russia.

 

====

 

Cyprus, ‘haven for Russian money laundering’, supports excluding Russia from SWIFT banking and all the other EU sanctions (Cyprus is not in NATO but is in the EU). 

 

It's a notorious haven for Russian money, the official home of several companies owned by Russian oligarchs and the second biggest bank in Cyprus is Russian. So banning them from access to Cyrus hurts more than keeping oligarchs from vacationing on the French Riviera.

 

So if they're serious about actually enforcing the sanctions rather than letting things slide, it's significant.

 

https://theprint.in/world/cyprus-haven-for-russian-money-laundering-supports-excluding-russia-from-swift-banking/850757/

 

====

Canada

 

Trudeau announces they're supplying Ukraine with anti-tank weapons systems and upgraded ammunition. This is in addition to our three previous shipments of military equipment – and it’s on top of the night vision goggles, body armour, gas masks, and helmets we announced yesterday.

 

“Canada will continue to deliver support for Ukraine’s heroic defense against the Russian military,” he said, according to Reuters. “We are announcing our intention to ban all imports of crude oil from Russia, an industry that has benefited President Putin and his oligarchs greatly.”

 

====

 

German warplanes are flying armed air patrols in the skies over Poland, the German air force said on Tuesday.

“Safeguarding the skies over Poland,” the air force said on Twitter, above a picture of a starting fighter jet, without giving details.

A military spokesperson told Reuters the Eurofighter jets were flying missions out of Germany over Poland.

Germany is also refueling allied jets over Romania with an A400M tanker and supporting a multinational refueling mission over Poland, according to the spokesperson, on top of having deployed six Eurofighters to Romania where they fly armed air patrols for NATO.

On Monday, Germany announced it would send Tornado warplanes and a maritime patrol aircraft to the Baltic Sea area.

 

My Commentary: This looks like pure intimidation to me. It's obvious by the way that Putin has dribbled his forces into Ukraine that he was worried that NATO would respond in force and annihilate whatever he sent in...but leave alone whatever he didn't send in.

 

So he started off sending in less than a third of the forces he'd assembled. When those weren't successful in the first two days, he gradually ramped it up to half over the following couple of days.

 

But now Putin has gone up to a solid 75% of his forces committed.

 

So Germany starts flying cap over Poland (with Germany's military being the "monster under the bed" of Russian fears).  

 

There's no particular military reason to be over Poland at this point since Putin already committed his forces elsewhere. But by putting them there, it's an intimidation move to try to keep Putin from committing the rest of his forces and putting them at risk (since NATO forces would be much less likely to attack Russian forces which actually remained on Russian soil as opposed to being involved in an invasion of Ukraine).

 

It's a pretty smart move.

 

====

 

YouTube has blocked channels linked to Russian state-owned media outlets RT and Sputnik across Europe – including the UK – amid the invasion of Ukraine.

 

(The EU had been talking about turning off both media outlets for the duration anyway. So this might be just YouTube rushing to the head of a parade and pretending to lead it.)

 

====

 

The 17 mile long convoy of Russian military forces on their way to Kiev grew to 40 miles over the last few hours. British military intelligence is saying the Russians are having logistical problems (likely fuel and breakdowns), So rather than the forces moving along in an orderly fashion, they're backing up along the road back to Belarus.

 

The satellite photos on TV show the forces almost bumper-to-bumper for miles. 

 

If the Ukrainians had significant air-to-mud aircraft available, this would be a very target-rich environment (and likely vehicles detonating other vehicles). Makes me wonder if part of the financial military assistance to Ukraine is being devoted to buying more of those Turkish-made drones which have proved so effective against convoys.

 

====

 

Belarus troops enter Ukraine to assist Russian invasion.

 

https://t.me/verkhovnaradaukrainy/6789

 

They're entering along the same invasion route as that 40 mile long convoy so I'd assume that they're mixed in with the Russian traffic jam.

 

====

 

Australia’ commits $70m to provide Ukraine with missiles and ammunition.

 

====

 

UK bars Russian ships from its ports. This includes chartered, controlled, operated, or owned by Russians.

https://www.facebook.com/andrew.guck1/posts/5359593077398270

 

====

 

A breakdown of the aircraft the EU is providing to Ukraine.

 

Ukraine’s Air Force said on March 1 that Bulgaria will provide 16 MiG-29s and 14 Su-25s, Poland will provide 28 MiG-29 units, and Slovakia – 12 MiG-29s.

 

70 total.

 

(I nailed the identities of the three countries providing the aircraft: small personal victory!)

 

https://www.facebook.com/kpszsu/posts/324628826371739

 

(And remember Poland had just donated a large number of air-to-air missiles for such jets as I mentioned in my last compilation post.)

 

edit: to give some context

 

Before the war started, Ukraine had 

 

37 MiG-29s

12 Su-24s

17 Su-25s

32 Su-27s

 

So that's 98 total fighters if I did the math right in my head. And the EU just gave them another 70 fighters plus the ammunition to make them effective.

 

I read reports before the war started that Ukraine had more trained military pilots in service than they had aircraft. So it's entirely possible, especially with calling up their reserves and retired military pilots, that they could put those aircraft to use immediately.

 

====

 

EU interior ministers asked EU home affairs commissioner Ylva Johansson to prepare proposals to trigger the EU temporary protection directive, drawn up after the 1990s war in the Balkans. If approved, that would allow Ukrainians who flee the war the right to stay and work in the EU for up to three years.

 

====

 

Taiwan has sent 27 tons of medical supplies to Ukraine, Reuters reports. Taiwan has joined with Western allies in putting sanctions on Russia.

 

Honoring the sanctions is notable because Taiwan is a major source of the world's semiconductors.

 

====

 

Ukrainian ambassador to the US claims Russia used a fuel-air explosive (aka thermobaric weapon, aerosol bomb, or vacuum bomb) in an area with civilians and not on a military target. If true, that's a violation of the Geneva Convention.

 

The international criminal court’s prosecutor is seeking the court’s approval to investigate alleged war crimes.

 

Fuel-air explosions can be made large enough to be the next worst thing in size to a nuclear explosion. Russia previously was alleged to use such weapons in first and second Chechen Wars during battles over Grozny (the Chechen capital city and previously the most populous city of the disputed area).

 

Amnesty International has condemned Russia’s reported use of cluster munitions (a different weapons system) on civilian populations and say the use of them on a pre-school may be a war crime.

 

====

 

Russian troops based in the country’s far east are heading for maneuvers closer to Europe, the Interfax news agency quoted Russia’s eastern military district as saying on Tuesday.

 

===

 

An open letter 

 

"We, the Presidents of the EU member states: the Republic of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, the Republic of Estonia, the Republic of Latvia, the Republic of Lithuania, the Republic of Poland, the Slovak Republic, and the Republic of Slovenia strongly believe that Ukraine deserves receiving an immediate EU accession perspective.

Therefore, we call on the EU Member States to consolidate highest political support to Ukraine and enable the EU institutions to conduct steps to immediately grant Ukraine a EU candidate country status and open the process of negotiations."

 

===

 

Religious figure and former presidential candidate Pat Robertson says that Putin is being compelled by God to invade Ukraine.

(video available at the link)

 

https://deadstate.org/pat-robertson-putin-is-being-compelled-by-god-to-invade-ukraine-and-bring-on-the-end-times/

 

====

 

Ukrainians are posting drive-by firebombing videos as they drive normal cars like minivans by Russian vehicles on the highway and toss a Molotov cocktail out onto them. They use a chase car to catch usable video. Armored personnel carriers seem to burn well.

 

====

 

A poll shows that 74% of Americans oppose Putin's invasion of Ukraine. The other 26% think Trump is President.

— Henry M. Rosenberg

 

====

 

Edited the section on "the donation of 70 fighter aircraft" to compare it to the size of the already-existing Ukrainian air force so as to give you the idea of just how huge of a contribution that was to the war effort.

 

Ukrainian pilots started moving those aircraft from Poland back home yesterday.

[Nekkidcarpenter]

6 hours ago, Ranxerox said:

Trump used to do this all the time

"Used to"?

 

[Pariah]

It's time to admit it: Mitt Romney was right about Russia

 

Quote

 

"Well, I'm saying in terms of a geopolitical opponent, the nation that lines up with the world's worst actors. Of course, the greatest threat that the world faces is a nuclear Iran. A nuclear North Korea is already troubling enough.

"But when these -- these terrible actors pursue their course in the world and we go to the United Nations looking for ways to stop them, when -- when Assad, for instance, is murdering his own people, we go -- we go to the United Nations, and who is it that always stands up for the world's worst actors?

 

"It is always Russia, typically with China alongside."

 

 

[Cancer]

Recalling something from a couple decades back:

 

"Russia has invaded one its neighbors.  It must be a year starting with '1'."

[Pariah]

No longer accurate, sadly.

[Cancer]

Yeah, might need to change to "year with more than three digits".

[Tom Cowan]

 

[Pariah]

Hey, all you January 6th fanatics who wanted to take up arms in defense of liberty, here's your chance.

 

Americans, Canadians answer Ukraine call for foreign fighters

 

If I were in charge of anything at all, I'd offer amnesty for any January 6th defendant who enlisted and served.

[Cygnia]

6 minutes ago, Pariah said:

Hey, all you January 6th fanatics who wanted to take up arms in defense of liberty, here's your chance.

 

Americans, Canadians answer Ukraine call for foreign fighters

 

If I were in charge of anything at all, I'd offer amnesty for any January 6th defendant who enlisted and served.

I dunno...I wouldn't trust 'em to stay and just jump over to Russia

[Pariah]

Even The Dictionary Is Puzzled By GOP Rep’s Word Salad About Ukraine

 

Of course, we shouldn't really expect clear thinking or elocution for folks who think (or at lest publicly claim) that Joe Biden is more to blame for the Ukraine invasion that Vladimir Putin. 

[Old Man]

37 minutes ago, Cygnia said:

I dunno...I wouldn't trust 'em to stay and just jump over to Russia

 

You mean like this guy from the One Star State?

[Cygnia]

 

[Old Man]

In case anyone is curious as to whether Putin is a rational actor, consider this interview with Putin analyst Fiona Hill:

 

Quote

 

“Every time you think, ‘No, he wouldn’t, would he?’ Well, yes, he would. And he wants us to know that, of course.”

... "This visceral emotion is unhealthy and extraordinarily dangerous because there are few checks and balances around Putin."

 

 

[archer]

Apple has confirmed that it has paused all product sales in Russia.

 

That includes ApplePay. MSNBC had fun interviewing Russians in Moscow not able to get on the subway because they usually use ApplePay. GooglePay has also stopped working in Russia. So there were backups trying to get on the subway from people trying to come up with cash at the turnstile.

 

 

Included in that Apple announcement is that RT News and Sputnik News, two state media sources, are no longer available on their App store.

[DShomshak]

Connecting Russia's invasion and Trumpist lunacy...

 

Mitt Romney laments, "Morons. I have morons on my team." (Apparently a movie quote.) Read the brief version of the article in my morning paper. Here's the full article from the source:

 

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/feb/27/sen-mitt-romney-complains-morons-gop-after-lawmake/

 

In brief, Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Paul Gosar attended the AFPAC conference organized by white nationalist Nick Fuentes, who rose to prominence from the deadly "Unite the Right" rally/riot in Charlottesviklle. There they joined him in a pro-Putin chant. Romney and Liz C?heney have both called them out.

 

I think I shall avoid further comment.

 

Dean Shomshak

[archer]

1 minute ago, DShomshak said:

Connecting Russia's invasion and Trumpist lunacy...

 

Mitt Romney laments, "Morons. I have morons on my team." (Apparently a movie quote.) Read the brief version of the article in my morning paper. Here's the full article from the source:

 

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/feb/27/sen-mitt-romney-complains-morons-gop-after-lawmake/

 

In brief, Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Paul Gosar attended the AFPAC conference organized by white nationalist Nick Fuentes, who rose to prominence from the deadly "Unite the Right" rally/riot in Charlottesviklle. There they joined him in a pro-Putin chant. Romney and Liz C?heney have both called them out.

 

I think I shall avoid further comment.

 

Dean Shomshak

 

It's a case of the blind leading the morons....

[TrickstaPriest]

We talking Fuentes?  I remember Fuentes:

 

(be warned, disturbing commentary)

 

Spoiler

 

 

[archer]

UK government announces sanctions against Belarus government, organizations, and individuals.

 

====

 

EU officials are considering offering asylum and refugee status for soldiers who want to desert the Russian army, as long as they have not committed war crimes.

 

(I still think my idea of offering Russian pilots $1,000,000 plus US citizenship if they surrender themselves and their aircraft is something which should be seriously considered. I tried getting that started as a rumor through contacting Ukrainian media and government sources plus Anonymous but no one has bitten on it as of yet. I think getting the rumor out there if nothing else would be devastating.)