Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[Lord Liaden]

Germany has announced that it is sending 1,000 anti-tank rockets and 500 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. They're also dropping some restrictions on other countries sending German-made arms to conflict zones.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60541752

[archer]

8 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

Germany has announced that it is sending 1,000 anti-tank rockets and 500 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. They're also dropping some restrictions on other countries sending German-made arms to conflict zones.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60541752

 

And they aren't doing it secretly or anything. Their chancellor stood up in public and announced it. So this is a very major change for them.

[Lord Liaden]

I anticipate these developments, if they continue to follow this course, will have a significant impact on public opinion among Americans. If there's one thing that's always swayed them, it's an underdog who won't give up.

[Lord Liaden]

8 minutes ago, archer said:

 

And they aren't doing it secretly or anything. Their chancellor stood up in public and announced it. So this is a very major change for them.

 

Big morale boost for Ukraine, and will probably sway more nations in Europe to follow suit.

[Cygnia]

23 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

I anticipate these developments, if they continue to follow this course, will have a significant impact on public opinion among Americans. If there's one thing that's always swayed them, it's an underdog who won't give up.

You would think that.  And yet...

 

[Lord Liaden]

I refuse to believe those deluded fools represent the majority of Americans. As it becomes increasingly obvious that what Trumpist Republicans and right-wing media have been telling them about Ukraine is a lie, I expect those politicians to suffer for their allegiance to Vladimir Putin.

[archer]

In Finland, the petition for the country's accession to NATO has gained the necessary 50 thousand signatures, which will allow it to get to the parliament for consideration...

 

According to the established procedure, signatures must be checked, after which the appeal will be sent to the Parliament for consideration. 

 

https://translate.yandex.com/translate?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcensor.net%2Fua%2Fnews%2F3319615%2Fu_finlyandiyi_petytsiya_pro_vstup_do_nato_nabrala_potribni_golosy_teper_yiyi_peredadut_do_parlamentu&lang=uk-en

[archer]

 

[Tom]

Just saw from BBC that Putin has placed Russia's nuclear deterrent on "special alert".

 

Seriously?

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621b82160ce87e491a0ed58b%26Russian move does not signal intent to use nuclear weapons%262022-02-27T13%3A56%3A05.258Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:a0123d9e-83d8-4199-be2f-92361aab4ea7&pinned_post_asset_id=621b82160ce87e491a0ed58b&pinned_post_type=share

[Ragitsu]

 

[L. Marcus]

On 2/26/2022 at 4:48 AM, Old Man said:

Putin has threatened to attack Sweden and Finland if they join NATO, which sounds like the best possible way to get them to join NATO.

 

I also know at least one fearsome Swede who could probably repel any such attack singlehandedly, through sheer intellect and force of will.

Yo.

[TrickstaPriest]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Just saw from BBC that Putin has placed Russia's nuclear deterrent on "special alert".

 

Seriously?

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621b82160ce87e491a0ed58b%26Russian move does not signal intent to use nuclear weapons%262022-02-27T13%3A56%3A05.258Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:a0123d9e-83d8-4199-be2f-92361aab4ea7&pinned_post_asset_id=621b82160ce87e491a0ed58b&pinned_post_type=share

 

Yeah, seriously.

 

"Let me invade or I burn down everything" is pretty much what you'd expect from... if North Korea had lots of nuclear weapons.

[DShomshak]

Thanks for keeping up on this, Archer. It's important to remember how Western leaders face choices that are more complex than we ever hear from normal media. (Even responsible media that are really trying to inform.) I am really, *really* glad that I can sit here huffing in outrage and don't have to play this three-dimensional chess game in person.

 

On Saturday, ATC once again spoke to Eastern Europe expert Prof. Timothy Snyder. He rather mocked Putin's recent argument for why Russia, Belarus and Ukraine are, always were, and always must be one nation. Apparently it all comes down to some Viking chieftan baptizing himself Christian a thousand years ago. Sorry, Prof. Snyder says, quite a bit of history has passed since then. But, as Snyder also pointed out in his On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century, totalitarian despots (and would-be despots -- the book was specifically written in response to Trumpism) never engage with real history, in all its messy complexity and ambiguity. They construct ultra-simplified narratives of heroic examples and ancient grievances.

 

Snyder also argued that Ukraine, a place most of us never paid the least attention to, has actually been in the heart of the major historical trends and events for at least a hundred years. Early nationalist movement, challenging the Russian Empire; brutal repression by Stalin; a major goal of Hitler, to become Germany's new breadbasket; post Soviet, finding a new path caught between Russia and the West; even the problem of growing income inequality; more. Interesting stuff.

 

Dean Shomshak

[Pariah]

10 minutes ago, DShomshak said:

 But, as Snyder also pointed out in his On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century, totalitarian despots (and would-be despots -- the book was specifically written in response to Trumpism) never engage with real history, in all its messy complexity and ambiguity. They construct ultra-simplified narratives of heroic examples and ancient grievances.

 

This. This right here. The real world is a complex place, and real conflicts require complex analysis and complex solutions. 

 

Simple answers are for simple minds, charlatans, and despots. 

[Lord Liaden]

But there's an abundance of people in the general populace who want simple-sounding answers to complex problems. That's the bread and butter of populist politicians. Populism is the easiest platform to campaign on, hardest to govern from.

 

And in a universal democracy, simple minds also get to vote.

 

6 hours ago, archer said:

 

 

That should scare any Russian soldier in Ukraine who hears about it. France throws Legionnaires into every messy conflict they don't want French troops dying over. These guys are as tough, disciplined, and ruthless as it gets. Only this time they'll be fighting for their own country.

[Old Man]

1 hour ago, Lord Liaden said:

But there's an abundance of people in the general populace who want simple-sounding answers to complex problems. That's the bread and butter of populist politicians. Populism is the easiest platform to campaign on, hardest to govern from.

 

And in a universal democracy, simple minds also get to vote.

 

 

That should scare any Russian soldier in Ukraine who hears about it. France throws Legionnaires into every messy conflict they don't want French troops dying over. These guys are as tough, disciplined, and ruthless as it gets. Only this time they'll be fighting for their own country.

 

The French Foreign Legion is already sending their Ukrainian members.  There are also accounts of some English-speaking spec ops volunteers gearing up to head into Ukraine.

 

While it pleases me that the Russians are encountering such stiff resistance, I won't be happy unless they are forced to pull back, and without a collapse at some level that's hard to see.  Putin very nearly has his land corridor to Crimea, and if he gets it that would count as a win for him.

[Lord Liaden]

It's highly unlikely that any military action we can practically expect to see deployed in Ukraine will be enough to outright force Russia to pull back. The Ukrainian government's plan, which they made no secret of, is to mount an ongoing resistance that will make it too costly for Russia to remain, in lives, materiel, and money. It looks to be shaping up that Ukraine has a shot at that.

[Pariah]

The good news is, there's a perfect blueprint for how to do that. Look at the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Heck, look at the American occupation of Afghanistan.

 

Ukrainian mujahideen, anyone? (As long as it doesn't become the Ukrainian Taliban when it's over.)

[archer]

5 hours ago, DShomshak said:

Thanks for keeping up on this, Archer. It's important to remember how Western leaders face choices that are more complex than we ever hear from normal media. (Even responsible media that are really trying to inform.)

 

Dean Shomshak

 

I'm glad you appreciate it. I'm constantly worrying that I'm posting too many stories and am boring people rather than informing them. I have to put up with a lot of people on other websites who think they need to post every story that they see...and who seem to have no way of gauging whether the story is important or not.

 

So to those who might be borderline irritated, please rest assured that I'm posting only a tiny fraction of what I'm seeing and am not deliberately trying to bury you under a blizzard of irrelevant information.

 

I'm trying to stick to items which have already come up in the conversation, major changes on the ground, and slow-rolling changes which might turn into something very important over the coming days (like the Finland vote and the potential of a new uprising in Belarus).

 

But if people have specific requests of things they'd like to see as I come across them, let me know. 

 

@Old Man

Thought you'd enjoy this story in light of earlier conversations:

 

Ukrainian troops defending Chernihiv region blew up 56 tanks of diesel fuel that were being transported by a Russian military convoy.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/02/26/7326282/

 

Also:

 

 

[unclevlad]

Which means that Putin will continue to spin up the threats.  I figure he'll trot out the old Soviet line about "don't interfere in the internal business" of Russia.

 

I don't *think* he has any intention of using those nukes, but even a tiny, TINY chance he might...and we have to concede at least that much...is cause for grave concern.  NOT for making concessions, because that's why he's making the threats.

 

LL:  I still hope that only the really, seriously Trumpists support this.  OK, Carlson is lowlife slime...but even *he* criticized it.  But the problem is, the party leaders are either not objecting that much, or using it to attack Biden.  Oh, let's just conveniently ignore that Trump was the one to get seriously buddy-buddy with him.  The net effect is to ensure that the American response will be negatively impacted.  It doesn't need to be a majority, or even close.  There are sanctions and other actions that Biden might have available...but would have overly negative impacts.  The pushback will be too strong.

[Lord Liaden]

37 minutes ago, Pariah said:

The good news is, there's a perfect blueprint for how to do that. Look at the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Heck, look at the American occupation of Afghanistan.

 

Ukrainian mujahideen, anyone? (As long as it doesn't become the Ukrainian Taliban when it's over.)

 

In the video I posted upthread, Beau of the Fifth Column offered a more directly relevant example -- Vietnam. A great power fighting in a foreign country, but faced with both a competent conventional military (the North Vietnamese Army) and an unconventional guerrilla force (the Viet Cong) at the same time. Very difficult to deal with both simultaneously. Here we have the Ukrainian army and air force, both still operational, plus the citizen militia that Ukraine has been training and equipping for months, if not longer. And both now being resupplied with arms from foreign governments, not unlike the backing North Vietnam received from China back in the day.

[Lord Liaden]

25 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

LL:  I still hope that only the really, seriously Trumpists support this.  OK, Carlson is lowlife slime...but even *he* criticized it.  But the problem is, the party leaders are either not objecting that much, or using it to attack Biden.  Oh, let's just conveniently ignore that Trump was the one to get seriously buddy-buddy with him.  The net effect is to ensure that the American response will be negatively impacted.  It doesn't need to be a majority, or even close.  There are sanctions and other actions that Biden might have available...but would have overly negative impacts.  The pushback will be too strong.

 

Not necessarily. Hate to go back to the Vietnam example, but the pushback against that war was very strong, too, arguably much worse than what we're seeing now. It didn't keep the American government from prosecuting that war for years. And that was an actual armed conflict that put American lives at risk, not just sanctions that cause inconvenience.

 

Ultimately, in wartime the future becomes very cloudy. No expert expected Ukraine to put up much resistance against Russia, but none of them anticipated the Russian military would screw up so badly. There's still too much in flux to make any predictions at this point, about what will happen on the ground, or about what will play out behind closed doors in the halls of power.

[archer]

International assistance/aid roundup:

 

Of course a number of countries donated money, military assistance, and humanitarian aid before the conflict started. So this is just the last couple of days (and yes, I probably missed a lot).

 

====

EU

 

European Union member countries will supply Ukraine with jet fighters, EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell said Sunday. Mr. Borrell said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has asked for jet fighters that his country’s air force can operate. Those planes would be Soviet-built models, mainly MiG and Sukhoi jets. Some current EU members that were once part of the USSR-led Warsaw Pact still fly such planes or have old ones parked. That's part of a 450 million Euro lethal military aid package.

 

(A Senior advisor to the EU Parliament said those aircraft will be on their way to Ukraine within a couple of hours.)

 

(Slovakia and Poland, for example, both are still flying such aircraft.)

 

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26/card/zjCJ5iME2keSkxfiaIpr

or without a paywall

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/eu-approves-450-million-euros-in-lethal-military-aid-for-ukraine

 

====

 

UK

 

British Petroleum (BP) to end partnership with Russian oil company Rosneft. BP currently owns 19.7% of Rosneft. They're currently in consultations with the UK government to figure out how to divest itself without selling its share to potentially inappropriate buyers. (Without BP resources and technical assistance, Rosneft will likely be partially crippled unless they can find replacement experts.)

https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/bp-exits-partnership-with-russian-energy-company

====

Poland

 

According to a source, the air-to-air missiles which #Poland has delivered #Ukraine today are mostly R-73 short-range Infrared guided air-to-air missiles which will be used by MiG-29s of #UkrainianAirForce.

https://www.aeroflap.com.br/uniao-europeia-fornecera-avioes-de-caca-para-a-ucrania/

 

====

Sweden

 

Sweden will send military aid to Ukraine, including anti-tank weapons, helmets and body armour, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said on Sunday.

"Sweden is now proposing direct support for Ukraine's armed forces. It includes 135,000 field rations, 5,000 helmets, 5,000 body shields and 5,000 anti-tank weapons" Andersson told a news conference.

https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/law-order/1940486-sweden-to-send-military-aid-to-ukraine---pm-andersson?amp

 

====

Croatia

 

About 200 Croatian volunteers arrive to fight for Ukraine

https://dnevnik.hr/vijesti/svijet/dragovoljac-iz-hrvatske-za-dnevnik-nove-tv-o-razlozima-odlaska-u-ukrajinu---697812.html?itm_source=HomeTopRow&itm_medium=Dnevnik&itm_campaign=Naslovnica

 

====

Slovakia

 

Slovakia announces temporary residency, including free healthcare and permission to work, for all Ukrainian refugees - a NYT story that's being tweeted about but I haven't looked up a link.

 

====

Czech

 

After a previous delivery of small arms and artillery shells, Czech Republic sends unspecified "heavy weaponry" worth roughly 16 million euros to Ukraine. (Czech twitter sourced)

 

====

Belgium

 

Belgium will supply Ukraine with 3,000 automatic rifles and 200 anti-tank weapons

https://censor.net/ua/news/3319787/belgiya_postavyt_ukrayini_3_tys_avtomatychnyh_gvyntivok_i_200_protytankovyh_zasobiv

 

====

Norway

 

Norway donates an additional $226 Million humanitarian aid to Ukraine. 

Norway gives 140 million Euros in military aid and equipment, setting aside principle and law not supplying countries engaged in active war with military equipment. 

https://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/7dg0mW/norge-trekker-oljefondet-ut-av-russland

https://www.nrk.no/norge/store-holder-pressekonferanse-om-situasjonen-i-ukraina-1.15872013

 

Norway's $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, will divest its Russian assets following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Norwegian government said on Sunday.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/norway-says-sovereign-fund-divest-180353072.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADlrsS-RsKE4iXp3S5bJqKES6NZymJ2nl9CCINZILwV7E7StyZ-RphDTik1z1SChxCX3Nru78ztsiJtsQr6UCyjgF9uoJoYgyBP7gzR1Z9d1ehqCERYvnzI5qRQYVMKHB_6jPHLolzE5lCZ7MJu5vPBvzubieUPCouvx-dqxxGLw

 

====

Turkey

 

Turkey to implement Montreux Convention due to Ukraine War. That allows them under international treaty to not let Russian warships transit from the Mediterranean into the Black Sea or vice versa.

 

Russia had positioned a couple of missile cruisers in the Mediterranean to in theory be able to threaten a US carrier group there which could support NATO forces in the Balkans and Turkey plus reach as far as Ukraine. But I'm not sure how long the Russian ships can operate without additional fuel and other resupply.

https://thearabtimes.com/turkey-to-implement-montreux-convention-due-to-ukraine-war/

 

====

Germany

 

Germany to Raise Defense Spending Above 2% of GDP in Response to Ukraine War

2% is the supposed minimum to be a NATO member but Germany in the past hasn't been doing even that much. SO this is a big boost. I guess that's not necessarily assistance to Ukraine but if Putin starts worrying about a resurgent Germany, he might not want to squander all of his forces elsewhere. Some other sources such as ABC say this is a multiyear 100 billion Euro commitment.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-to-raise-defense-spending-above-2-of-gdp-11645959425

 

====

Denmark

 

Denmark will send 2700 MANPATS to Ukraine (man-portable anti-tank systems)

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/udland/seneste-nyt-om-konflikten-i-ukraine-putin-og-scholz-holder-moede-ved-det-store-hvide

 

Denmark will let its nationals join international brigades forming to fight in Ukraine against Russian forces, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Sunday.

https://thethreadtimes.com/danish-pm-says-volunteers-can-join-ukraine-fight

 

====

Switzerland

 

Swiss President of the Federal Council: freezing of russian assets 'highly probable' (link in German)

 

That'd be an almost unprecedented step if they actual took a substantial step in an international conflict.

https://www.srf.ch/news/international/krieg-in-der-ukraine-cassis-einfrieren-russischer-vermoegenswerte-wahrscheinlich

 

====

Chechen

 

One of the most famous Chechen leaders living abroad (Ex Prime minister of Ichkeria who has many Chechen supporters from Europe and Turkey) said they are getting ready a Chechen resistance to fight against Russians, Kadyrovists (source foreign language twitter). 

 

Of course it took Russia an immense amount of effort to win the first two Chechen wars in the 1991-2000 era and to install a Russian puppet government there. If things start up again....

[archer]

 

[Ragitsu]

Can someone explain to me the logic of "Russia is fighting discrimination (i.e. Neo-Nazis) in Ukraine." while homosexuality continues to be seen as a crime in Russia?