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Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)


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1 hour ago, Ragitsu said:

Can someone explain to me the logic of "Russia is fighting discrimination (i.e. Neo-Nazis) in Ukraine." while homosexuality continues to be seen as a crime in Russia?

 

Being a neo-Nazi is a crime and being a homosexual is a crime so they're being internally consistent? I dunno, the government of Russia no matter who is in charge has never made sense to me....

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Catfishing the Invaders: Russian soldiers are apparently trying to find matches with Ukrainian woman on Tinder. (!!) Some of these women are feeding details provided by the soldiers to Ukrainian military leaders, who are using the data to track troop movements. 

 

Financial Times article

 

New York Post article

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2 hours ago, Ragitsu said:

Can someone explain to me the logic of "Russia is fighting discrimination (i.e. Neo-Nazis) in Ukraine." while homosexuality continues to be seen as a crime in Russia?

 

The logic is that there is no logic.  Ukraine is run by a democratically elected Jew.  It's the kind of justification that only plays to weak minded people in a media bubble.  Which is still a significant percentage of the population.

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S&P Global has cut Russia’s credit rating to “junk” status in the latest sign that western sanctions are already dealing a severe blow to the country’s financial markets...


S&P said it could reduce Russia’s rating further over the next three months once its analysts have “more clarity on the full macroeconomic repercussions of the existing sanctions and the evolution of the geopolitical conflict”.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/9690aae4-97e2-4009-a84e-da61ef2fd827?shareType=nongift

 

====

 

Moscow braces for ruble to crash at least 25% as new sanctions hit

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/27/ukraine-moscow-braces-for-market-meltdown-monday-as-new-sanctions-hit

 

And that may be optimistic: Bank in Vladivostok sells USD for 250 Ruble- Friday's rate was around 80 (which had been a severe drop. I can't confirm the tweet is true, but oh boy.

 

 

Also

 

 

And

 

 

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Russia Hikes Interest Rates to 20% on Monday in a dramatic attempt to stabilize the country’s financial markets (the previous rate was 9.5%).

 

Russia’s Finance Ministry also said it would mandate companies to sell at least 80% of their foreign currency earnings on the domestic market — a move that will force them to buy rubles, thus creating demand for the under-siege currency.

 

Russia’s exporters brought in close to $600 billion in 2021, meaning the forced sales could provide more than $1 billion to the market a day. Economists said the move was designed to replace the Central Bank’s typical role in stabilizing the currency, which was hit by the freezing of its assets held in the West.

 

The regulator also banned non-Russians from selling shares in companies listed on the Russian stock market 

 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/28/russia-hikes-interest-rates-to-20-a76642

 

I must say that I never really expected a significant meltdown due to sanctions....

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10 hours ago, Old Man said:

Photoshop of Zelenskyy as Captain Ukraine:

 

8s305z6iphk81.jpg?width=548&auto=webp&s=

 

Wish Zelenskyy really had a vibranium shield, word is Putin sent 400 Wagner Group mercs into Kyiv to find and liquidate him.

 

 

 

If that happens at this point, Putin creates a martyr and a symbol for Ukrainians to rally around. Zelenskyy is potentially more dangerous to Russia dead than alive.

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8 hours ago, archer said:

I must say that I never really expected a significant meltdown due to sanctions....

Nor I, but these sanctions have been much greater, and come *much* more swiftly, than I imagined possible. I imagined weeks of dithering while governments argued with each other and tried to make up their own minds. Putin probably did as well. While I am no military expert (nor mind reader), I suspect his plan was to wage a short, victorious war and present the rest of the world with a fait accompli. Governments would huff and puff, but nobody would be ready to go to war with Russia for the sake of a country already conquered. The Eurowimps would wag fingers, but would admit they needed Russian gas and oil more than they needed principles. Americans would be hamstrung by internal hyper-partisanship, and wouldn't act without strong allied support.

 

I have not words to say how happy I am this has not happened. Putin is clever, but this time he totally misread the room. It appears he did not, in fact, have a strategy tree by which he could change his plans to win something no matter what the West did in response. He can still "win" in Ukraine, but it will be a bloody, brutal slog instead of a chess-master's brilliant gambit. Instead of breaking up, NATO looks like it's getting new members and new resolve. Russia's trade and financial ties are unraveling. While Europe still needs Russian oil and gas, this will accelerate the search for alternate energy sources, steadily impoverishing Russia and reducing its economic leverage. And, intangibly, just an attitude of disgust toward Russia. Machiavelli warned that while it can be good for a prince to be feared, no prince can survive contempt.

 

Not one path to defeat, but all paths to defeat, in one field or another. I hope the Russian people -- and the Russian generals -- are coming to understand this.

 

Dean Shomshak

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Understand:  I am not even slightly opposed to any of the aid measures for Ukraine, or the sanctions against Russia.

 

But it also worries me.  I fear that Putin will view all of this as aggression against Russia, particularly if the economy continues down the tubes.  And if he thinks it's aggression against Russia...what will he NOT do?  

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17 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

But it also worries me.  I fear that Putin will view all of this as aggression against Russia, particularly if the economy continues down the tubes.  And if he thinks it's aggression against Russia...what will he NOT do?  

 

Been thinking about the same.  Hopefully this will be what ousts him BEFORE he can do anything extreme.  ie- other people's fears he might try

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2 hours ago, unclevlad said:

Understand:  I am not even slightly opposed to any of the aid measures for Ukraine, or the sanctions against Russia.

 

But it also worries me.  I fear that Putin will view all of this as aggression against Russia, particularly if the economy continues down the tubes.  And if he thinks it's aggression against Russia...what will he NOT do?  

 

Lots and lots of online speculation along these lines.  Is Putin crazy enough to attempt limited use of small yield nuclear weapons?  Probably.  Can we afford to let him benefit from nuclear blackmail?  Probably not.

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3 hours ago, unclevlad said:

Understand:  I am not even slightly opposed to any of the aid measures for Ukraine, or the sanctions against Russia.

 

But it also worries me.  I fear that Putin will view all of this as aggression against Russia, particularly if the economy continues down the tubes.  And if he thinks it's aggression against Russia...what will he NOT do?  

 

1 hour ago, Old Man said:

 

Lots and lots of online speculation along these lines.  Is Putin crazy enough to attempt limited use of small yield nuclear weapons?  Probably.  Can we afford to let him benefit from nuclear blackmail?  Probably not.

 

If he would do so under these circumstances, he would do so the next time he tries to expand his empire and faces any opposition. And if he isn't forced to pay a severe cost for this invasion, there will be a next time. Appeasement doesn't work with a megalomaniac. He has to be faced here and now, before he gets any bigger, in territory and in his own head.

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2 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

Lots and lots of online speculation along these lines.  Is Putin crazy enough to attempt limited use of small yield nuclear weapons?  Probably.  Can we afford to let him benefit from nuclear blackmail?  Probably Absolutely not.

 

Fixed that for you.

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