Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[archer]

Mini-news roundup since I nearly wrecked myself trying to install a new mailbox post and can't do anything now but sit in a chair. Mise.

 

====

 

Nord Stream 2, the company behind the controversial pipeline that was halted amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has officially filed for bankruptcy and laid off all its employees.

 

Not surprising considering Shell pulling out, Germany putting a hold on the approval process, and sanctions against Russia in general. But welcome nonetheless.

 

====

 

Ukrainian ambassador to attend Biden's State of the Union this evening.

 

====

 

EU agreed to exclude seven more Russian banks from SWIFT.

 

Slow-rolling it to keep ramping up the pressure.

 

====

 

Ford is suspending operations in Russia until further notice. Mostly they built commercial vans in Russia and sold other Ford products through local car dealers.

 

====

 

Ukraine and Poland open two additional border crossing locations.

 

====

 

The world’s three biggest container lines (Maersk, CMA, and MSC) on Tuesday suspended cargo shipments to and from Russia except for medicine and humanitarian aid. MSC is a Swiss company. Maersk is in Denmark. CMA is in France.

 

Singapore-headquartered Ocean Network Express and Germany’s Hapag Lloyd had already done this so this effectively cuts off Russia from all the world's biggest shipping companies.

 

On the other hand, all those containers which might have otherwise been used for Russian shipments are now available to ease supply chain issues elsewhere.

 

(Maersk also owns 31% of Russian port operator Global Ports, which runs six terminals in Russia. They haven't yet announced how they're planning on dealing with that.)

 

====

 

Ukrainian's State Border Service states 80,000 Ukrainians have returned to the country from abroad since the invasion began. Most returned to join the Armed Forces, other military formations and Territorial Defense Forces. (Presumably the rest are things like doctors, nurses, and aid workers.)

 

https://t.me/mvs_ukraine/8991

 

====

 

Russian-owned and registered ships banned from Canadian ports and their waters

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-russian-ships-banned-from-canadian-waters/

 

====

 

Eight Kiev TV stations are back on the air after a Russian attack earlier today on Kiev's TV tower.

 

https://www.facebook.com/kirill.timoshenko/posts/5073347172709026

 

The attack on the TV tower killed five people.

 

====

Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of UkraineAlexey Danilov spoke today during a telethon about the elimination of the" elite " Kadyrovites (Chechen's who work for Putin) who planned to kill the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky.

 

You might remember the stories a couple of days ago about the 400 mercenaries who were sent to assassinate Zelensky. This is apparently what happened to them.

 

He said the Ukrainian government were tipped off about the assassins' location by members of Russia's FSB (the successor to the KGB) who oppose the war.

 

https://translate.yandex.com/translate?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.unian.net%2Fwar%2Fplanirovali-ubit-zelenskogo-likvidirovany-elitnye-kadyrovcy-danilov-novosti-donbassa-11724325.html&lang=ru-en

 

https://www.unian.net/war/planirovali-ubit-zelenskogo-likvidirovany-elitnye-kadyrovcy-danilov-novosti-donbassa-11724325.html

 

[archer]

CNN's White House and national security reporter

 

[Lord Liaden]

1 hour ago, archer said:

Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of UkraineAlexey Danilov spoke today during a telethon about the elimination of the" elite " Kadyrovites (Chechen's who work for Putin) who planned to kill the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky.

 

You might remember the stories a couple of days ago about the 400 mercenaries who were sent to assassinate Zelensky. This is apparently what happened to them.

 

He said the Ukrainian government were tipped off about the assassins' location by members of Russia's FSB (the successor to the KGB) who oppose the war.

 

https://translate.yandex.com/translate?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.unian.net%2Fwar%2Fplanirovali-ubit-zelenskogo-likvidirovany-elitnye-kadyrovcy-danilov-novosti-donbassa-11724325.html&lang=ru-en

 

https://www.unian.net/war/planirovali-ubit-zelenskogo-likvidirovany-elitnye-kadyrovcy-danilov-novosti-donbassa-11724325.html

 

 

I've heard and read comments observing that the Ukrainian forces seemed particularly "lucky" in knowing where Russian forces were going to be, to avoid them or to attack. We might have a bit of a fifth column in the Russian government assisting Ukraine. Although I have to wonder whether it was prudent for Danilov to make that bit of data public.

[Old Man]

 

Either that or the Ukrainians are somehow benefiting from Western surveillance and satellites.

 

Meanwhile, Lukashenko candidly leaked Russia's invasion objectives yesterday, including a planned invasion of Moldova:

 

[L. Marcus]

Well, wasn't that nice of him.

[archer]

43 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

 

I've heard and read comments observing that the Ukrainian forces seemed particularly "lucky" in knowing where Russian forces were going to be, to avoid them or to attack. We might have a bit of a fifth column in the Russian government assisting Ukraine. Although I have to wonder whether it was prudent for Danilov to make that bit of data public.

 

Well, it was likely either an intentional leak or deliberate misinformation. Either way, intentionally mentioned to demoralize Russians about the war effort. And if it's true, there's likely a lot of FSB people who were ticked at Putin turning to mercenaries to do his dirty work. Professional pride and all of that.

 

 

And about Ukrainian forces seeming particularly lucky, I had intended a couple of days ago to post a story about the EU sharing real time satellite intelligence with Ukraine collected by some base in Spain.

 

I honestly don't remember if I posted it here or not. I've had way too many posts (in various places) and conversations to keep everything straight.

 

But eyes-in-the-sky are a tremendous force multiplier.

 

I know Ukraine is using TV to distribute intelligence to the public (which is why Russia targeted Kiev's TV tower today). And I know they're also using publicly-viewable social media posts and likely cell phones.

 

They probably have some other way of communicating intelligence to their citizens. But western media is scrupulously avoiding talking about it, just as they're scrupulously avoiding showing the defensive works going up around Kiev's perimeter and throughout many of Kiev's streets.

 

 

edit: Here's a story about the sharing of satellite data. It's not the one I read earlier but it at least mentions it.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-help-ukraine-with-intelligence-own-satellite-centre-eus-borrell-2022-02-28/

[Old Man]

How to drive a Russian APC, by random Ukrainian girl:

 

 

Just in case, right?

 

 

[archer]

57 minutes ago, Old Man said:

How to drive a Russian APC, by random Ukrainian girl:

 

 

Just in case, right?

 

 

 

That's a hilariously funny video. But it was made last year in Russia by a Russian girl.

 

Just part of the TikTok community digging into archives looking for something to use as pro-Ukraine propaganda. 

 

But it's nice the Ukrainians can use it too.

[Cancer]

Man, and I considered myself lucky in having been inside a decommissioned Leopard tank that was a target out on a firing range back in 1971.  Envious.

[assault]

25 minutes ago, Cancer said:

Man, and I considered myself lucky in having been inside a decommissioned Leopard tank that was a target out on a firing range back in 1971.  Envious.

Yes, being inside the tank was lucky. But it would have been luckier still to have not been out with the targets on the range. That's the best way not not get shot.

[Pattern Ghost]

4 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

Although I have to wonder whether it was prudent for Danilov to make that bit of data public.

It's possible they got the intel through other means and said that to rattle Putin.

[assault]

Reality is starting to look like a bad RPG setting, full of weird events in close succession. Twilight: 2025, anyone?

[DShomshak]

I forget whether it was here or a newspaper article that mentioned Google Maps advising Ukrainians on how to avoid Russian tanks. They're causing traffic jams, you know.

 

Dean Shomshak

[DShomshak]

Yesterday my local paper ran this AP article on the religious landscape of Ukraine and Russia. There's a sectarian aspect to the conflict... though not in Ukraine itself. Even Russian Orthodox Ukrainians who look to the Patriarch of Moscow oppose the Russian invasion.

 

At any rate, another aspect if anyone's interested.

 

https://news.yahoo.com/explainer-russia-ukraine-war-linked-140533566.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall&guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9zZWFyY2guYW9sLmNvbS9jbGljay9feWx0PUF3cmdEdWxtX3g1aVQ0TUFMVFZwQ1dWSDtfeWx1PVkyOXNid05uY1RFRWNHOXpBeklFZG5ScFpBTUVjMlZqQTNOai9SVj0yL1JFPTE2NDYyMjc0MzAvUk89MTAvUlU9aHR0cHMlM2ElMmYlMmZuZXdzLnlhaG9vLmNvbSUyZmV4cGxhaW5lci1ydXNzaWEtdWtyYWluZS13YXItbGlua2VkLTE0MDUzMzU2Ni5odG1sJTNmZnIlM2RzeWNzcnBfY2F0Y2hhbGwvUks9MC9SUz1JT3RiN3VFQU9ocDdwMGJ4RDFXUWJoVGhIanMt&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAL0kfWtSNlvgelWQqHyvvcl_F21CRYPQGX7xLY9hLB8gxJS8zmFNRlQqJ2BGZw2H8be82mDaYwICdVD-FZPPsUWWFrpYHxtiP2YrpW2__nPd9vjYH3JBfCB5V8-8JQ9p-rM6Qe_PBoQqIPDnIATTytvldayHM9RHCAAeOmXtGsQw

 

Dean Shomshak

[Cancer]

I remember in fall 1973 there was a serious flirtation with nuclear war.  In the Yom Kippur War, at one point the Israelis believed there was a serious possibility of them losing, at which point Meir gave permission to assemble nuclear warheads.  (Israel had had the ability to make nuclear warheads for some time, but did not so so for obvious political reasons.)

 

Supposedly the Soviets detected this, loaded a dozen or so SS-20 missiles with nuclear warheads onto a ship, and tried sending that through the Bosporus-Dardanelles to their client states.  It being impossible to mask such things as you pass through Istanbul, the Americans detected those, and went to full alert.  I lived on a SAC base at the time, and I remember waking up in the middle of the night as every jet engine on base roared to life and the B-52s and their attendant KC-135 tankers got off the ground as fast as they could, so that a preemptive strike would not destroy them on the ground.

 

Again supposedly, a conversation occurred over the Hot Line about this, and the Soviets responded by saying that they assumed the Americans had given the Israelis permission to go nuclear if they needed to, and indicated what they had detected and where they had detected it.  The Americans sent an SR-71 over the site; the Israelis gave the order to shoot it down; they could not.  Meanwhile there was a hostile naval standoff in the Mediterranean between the superpowers.

 

About the time things were getting really gnarly, the Egyptian-Syrian forces started running out of AA missiles and the Israelis drove back the spearheads and started winning the ground war, partly with changes of tactics.  Their warheads were dismantled and the crisis cooled off.

 

How that scenario can inform our current situation is unclear.  Here it is the Russians directly threatening nuclear strikes in raw aggression, as opposed to a client state pulling out what they believed what might be their last chance for survival.  So if the Russians use tactical nuclear weapons, what next? 

 

This expansionism is exactly the sort of crap the Japanese Empire was doing in the 1930s, and when the US imposed crippling economic sanctions on them to bring it to a halt, well, the response was Pearl Harbor.  It is a distortion of the process to say this, but that made the Americans so angry they invented nuclear weapons, and then used two-thirds of their nuclear arsenal in three days.  If the Russians had been hoping that their cyberattacks would be more crippling than Pearl Harbor it seems not to have panned out that way; will they try something more overt?

[Cancer]

And, I think this is the best intermediate-range analysis I've read over the last couple of weeks.

[Ragitsu]

I remember stumbling across this Axis Powers Hetalia piece for Ukraine circa 1986. It works almost as well for today.

 

[Starlord]

[archer]

Russia closed its stock market for the third day in a row.

 

MSNBC tv reported that the value of the Russian ruble dropped even lower today than it was yesterday.

 

I did see one graphic of a Russian bank which is listed on the London stock exchange. On Friday it had been valued around 5.5 per share (I assume pounds). On Monday it opened up at less than .5 per share, so about 1/11th of its previous price.

 

Honestly I don't see how Russia can keep its stock market closed forever. 

 

But it's going to be really hard for them to pretend their economy isn't crashing after it opens.

[Pariah]

33 minutes ago, archer said:

Honestly I don't see how Russia can keep its stock market closed forever. 

 

By having the government seize control of all the affected companies, of course. If Putin's pushing for a return to the good old days of the USSR, this is just one more step along the way.

[archer]

News roundup

 

====

 

South Korea to honor sanctions. They export a lot of semiconductors.

 

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220228005951325?input=red

 

====

 

Anonymous claims to have attacked and disabled railways in Belarus. And claim they will continue to keep the rail system disabled as long as the Russian aggression continues.

 

Russia has been depending on that rail system to supply troops in its invasion corridor where that 40 mile long convoy is now stalled out.

 

====

Ukraine has received a new batch of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 attack drones (the kind which they'd used to destroy convoys in the first couple of days of the war).

 

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/30352-ukraine-says-it-received-new-batch-of-bayraktars-from-turkey

 

Last year, the Ukrainian air force was known to have had 6 of them. But it had ordered 48 more and 12 new control stations for them from Turkey.

 

That article says that the Ukrainians had upped the count of the ones they'd received to around 20 (presumably talking about "by the time the war began"). 

 

So apparently the rest of their order has at least started to arrive.

 

They're really small, and really cheap, compared to a US-made Reaper drone. (The Bayraktar TB2 production cost is estimated at $1–2 million dollars but I couldn't find information on what Turkey is charging Ukraine per drone.) It's also supposed to be able to take off and land on roads rather than needing an airport. 

 

< singing >

Send in the drones.

Where are the drones?

Don't bother, they're here.

 

====

 

Ukrainians are listing used Russian tanks on EBay. There was a T-72 listed with a Buy It Now price of $400,000 before Ebay took the listing down.

 

Nice propaganda move but the delivery charge is likely prohibitive.

 

And I doubt EBay will let any listing stay up long since selling active military hardware has to violate their terms of service.

 

====

 

Ukraine and Russia conducted their first prisoner swap yesterday.

 

Ukraine is also offering to release any Russian prisoner whose mother comes to collect him. (Brilliant propaganda move.)

 

https://censor.net/ua/news/3320764/ukrayina_viddast_rosiyiskyh_polonenyh_yakscho_za_nymy_pryyidut_materi_geraschenko

 

====

 

EU has removed RT (Russia Today) from its airwaves and cable. RT is financed by the Russian government and in the US has been forced to register as an agent of the Russian government.

 

====

 

Massive snowstorm forecast for southern Russia and eastern Ukraine over the next couple of days. Russia is forecast to get 10-30 inches with eastern Ukraine about 8 inches.

 

That could impact Russian resupply efforts. And vastly complicate Ukrainian evacuation efforts.

 

====

 

Russian media now accusing Kazakhstan of “russophobia” and “ukrainization”, whatever that is supposed to mean. Not suggesting Russia will attack Kazakhstan but worth pointing out this is exactly how they built up their narrative about “Nazi Ukraine” (journalist Bakhti Nishanov showing tweeted images from Russian media.)

 

Putin publicly asked Kazakhstan's government to join him in the invasion a few days ago but, surprisingly, Kazakhstan refused.

 

====

 

"According to U.S. officials speaking today, ~100,000 Russian troops inside Ukraine (~70% of its entire deployed force) are running out, or have already run out of fuel & food." - Charlie Lister, an expert who's shown up on a couple of US networks

 

====

 

A $1,000,000 bounty for the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin was offered to military officers by Russian entrepreneur Alex Konanykhin

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-699098

 

He doesn't live inside Russia at the moment.

 

====

 

U.S. believes Ukrainian troops are targeting Russia's stalled 40-mile convoy of tanks and artillery that is "stalled" miles from Kyiv city center: senior U.S. defense official. - Jack Detsch, a national security reporter

 

====

 

President Pedro Sanchez of Spain in a speech to his parliament promises to deliver offensive weapons to Ukraine.

https://www.bayradio.fm/2022/03/02/pedro-sanchez-announces-that-he-will-send-weapons-to-the-ukrainian-resistance/

 

edit: other sources claim it's to be sending 1,300 anti-tank rockets and 700,000 rounds of ammunition.

 

====

 

The United States has delivered hundreds of stinger missiles to Ukraine this week, including more than 200 on Monday, according to two Congressional officials briefed on the deliveries. - NBC News

 

====

 

The World Health Organization says the first shipment of medical aid for Ukraine will arrive in Poland on Thursday. 

The shipment includes 36 metric tons of supplies for trauma care and emergency surgery that will meet the needs of 1,000 patients. It also includes other health supplies to meet the needs of 150,000 people. - NBC

 

====

 

70% of Russian oil struggling to find buyers

https://censor.net/ua/news/3320763/70_rosiyiskoyi_nafty_boretsya_za_te_schob_znayity_pokuptsiv_financial_times

 

====

 

Bank of China's Singapore operation has stopped financing deals involving Russian oil and Russian companies.

 

At least two of China’s largest state-owned banks are restricting financing for purchases of Russian commodities.

 

(At the same time China is assuring Russia that it stands with them economically, they're pulling back somewhat financially.)

 

European banks Societe Generale and Credit Suisse Group have halted the financing of commodities, it was reported on Sunday. The two banks, key financiers to commodity trading houses, are no longer providing the money needed to move raw materials such as metals and oil from Russia.

 

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/bank-of-chinas-singapore-operation-stops-financing-russian-oil-trades-source

 

====

 

An image from part of that 40 mile convoy (near Bucha in the Kyiv Oblast).

 

[archer]

[archer]

Putin on Tuesday signed a decree that prohibits taking more than $10,000 worth of foreign currency in cash and “monetary instruments” out of Russia.

 

Apparently trying to keep people who can afford it from fleeing.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-signs-decree-to-prohibit-leaving-russia-with-more-than-10000-in-foreign-currency/ar-AAUu3Ha

[archer]

Toyota Motor Corp will halt production at its Russian factory from Friday while vehicle imports into the country have also stopped indefinitely

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/honda-suspend-automobile-motorcycle-exports-russia-nhk-2022-03-02/

 

Honda Motor said it has suspended exports of cars and motorcycles to Russia - Reuters

[archer]

A Guide to Ukraine’s Swear Words So You Can Follow the Viral Videos

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/a-guide-to-ukraines-curse-words-so-you-can-follow-the-viral-videos?ref=home