Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[Lord Liaden]

 

[Iuz the Evil]

I try to watch that guy’s videos, I really do. Can’t make it through. 
 

Can I get a synopsis on what his personal opinion of Musk’s purchase means? 
 

The increased advertising focus makes sense to me. Nobody spends $43 billion in investor funding not looking to make a profit…

[Lord Liaden]

The tl;dr version : Public discussion of Musk's purchase has revolved around his well-publicized advocacy for absolute free speech, including moderation of social media. Debate has split over whether that would be a good or bad thing. Beau's take is that moderation of Twitter is part of its existing policies, to protect its users from potential harm, and thereby protect the company from legal liability. Moreover, less moderation would create a more toxic environment that would drive away many of the app's core users. Musk's lawyers are certain to make that case to him, forcefully.

 

Beau expects we'll see a big PR campaign claiming that Twitter has changed, but not much will actually change.

[DShomshak]

6 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

 

I understand that reasoning, but I'm not sure I agree with it. I suspect Xi is more observing the West's long-term resolve over this conflict. I don't believe Xi or anyone else expects NATO to intervene to an extent that utterly crushes Russia, unless Putin goes full-on Dr. Strangelove. The alliance has already shown it wants to avoid making Putin so desperate that he'd consider using his nuclear arsenal a necessary step to survive. So a swift end to this war looks like a low probability. Moreover, China is in a much better position to absorb any short-term shock, economic or military, than Russia.

 

However, Xi appears to be following a policy of economic imperialism, and pressure from the West on that front could make any provocative action by China, e.g. invasion of Taiwan, too expensive to China to be worth it... if the West shows it's willing to sustain that pressure, even if that's detrimental to itself.

I meant that I don't see the advantage in deliberately prolonging the Ukraine war as a way of tying up Russia, which apparently some people thing is the plan. If NATO & allies can turn the Ukraine invasion into a humiliating and catastrophic defeat for Russia, without firing a shot themselves, doing it quickly might make a better show of power than dragging it out just to show we're willing to keep going that long.

 

If it becomes a direct shooting war between Russia and NATO, well, that's a whole different calculation. The issue also has articles on escalation and nuclear strategy, but that's a whole other discussion.

 

Dean Shomshak

[Lord Liaden]

Remember that it doesn't have to be a "hot" war. "Cold war" between Russia and Ukraine would serve the same purpose. If everything ends abruptly, Russia even damaged will still be a factor in the world, and can recover. Practically speaking, Russia has already suffered a crushing and humiliating defeat. Putin might salvage something he can sell to his people as a victory, but everything he hoped to accomplish has rebounded in his face, and Russia's weakness has been exposed to the whole world.

 

As far as a measure of power, Russia vs NATO in a conventional war was never a realistic scenario, even if the Russian military was as good as previously believed, and all world governments know it. America's armed forces alone grossly outclass Russia's, and with the assistance of its other members NATO could have pushed Russia completely out of Ukraine in a week. If not for those pesky A-bombs.

[Cygnia]

Russia appears to confuse ‘The Sims’ for SIM cards in possible staged assassination attempt

[Lord Liaden]

That was so sloppy it's laughable, especially the letter signed, "signature illegible."   The FSB looks to be as rigid and hidebound as the Russian military. Putin's ex-KGB, you'd think he'd at least set up a professional espionage service.

[Cygnia]

Chances are, Putin defenestrated anyone intelligent enough in the FSB who could have been a threat to him already...

[L. Marcus]

... Jösses.

[DShomshak]

The article mentioned the online group Bellingcat. By coincidence, yesterday's All Things Considered interviewed the maker of a documentary about Alexei Navalny. You may recall that Bellingcat found the chemist who cooked up the poison used against Mr Navalny, and that Navalny called the man, pretending to be an FSB agent involved in the failed plot. The director was actually present at that scene and filmed it: You can see it in the documentary.

 

Like LL, the director pointed out then that, yeah, Russia's reputation for incredible spycraft may not be deserved. Not that it takes great skill to murder civilians as they go about their lives, which seems to be the FSB's forte in foreign operations. Shoot or poison, then run back to Russia. (Or killing the chemist to whom Mr Navalny spoke -- the director noted that the man seems to have disappeared several months ago.)

 

Now, if it's actually a Ukrainian setup to make the FSB look dumb, it's brilliant. But I find it easier to believe the FSB really has people who are that stupid.

 

Dean Shomshak

[unclevlad]

16 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

I've been running uBlock Origin and Adblock Plus so long I forgot YouTube had ads.

 

Then again I don't watch Beau's unwatchable videos either.

 

I realized:  I don't have an ad blocker on this Chrome yet.  This is still the new, Win 11 box;  got it on my Win 10.  But that also means having to go through the "turn off your ad blocker" on SO MANY web sites now. that I haven't been in a rush.  May have to do that this afternoon.

 

2 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

That was so sloppy it's laughable, especially the letter signed, "signature illegible."   The FSB looks to be as rigid and hidebound as the Russian military. Putin's ex-KGB, you'd think he'd at least set up a professional espionage service.

 

MANY years ago, I remember reading Ladislas Farago's Game of the Foxes.  It was about Germany's intelligence services before and during WW II.  TL;DR:  spy services are a lot less competent than they make out to be.  CIA has also had its share of...let's say, inglorious moments.

[Cygnia]

Quote

CIA has also had its share of...let's say, inglorious moments.

Can we say "Castro's Beard?"

[DShomshak]

Addendum to above: Could this be malicious compliance? IE, somebody in the FSB does not approve of the invasion of Ukraine (whether morally or just from recognizing that it's a fiasco and the longer it goes on, the worse the damage to Russia). They are sabotaging the hoax while pretending to follow orders... to the letter.

 

I mean, sure, Occam's Razor. When something seems to be done by an idiot, the simplest explanation is that it was done bhy an idiot. But I remain open to other possibilities.

 

Dean Shomshak

[Lord Liaden]

Weeks ago, a Ukrainian official publicly claimed that parties within the FSB had passed on information about Russian troop movements to the Ukrainian government. Naturally that could just be propaganda, but Ukrainian forces did seem exceptionally lucky in anticipating where their opponents were going to be. So IMHO that isn't a far-fetched theory.

[unclevlad]

Just opened up NYT.  Lead headline:

 

Moscow Lashes Out, Accusing West of Proxy War

 

Which side started this again????

[Pariah]

1 hour ago, unclevlad said:

Just opened up NYT.  Lead headline:

 

Moscow Lashes Out, Accusing West of Proxy War

 

Which side started this again????

 

"Moooom! Ukraine hit me back!"

[Lord Liaden]

It's posturing for their domestic audience. They don't care if the rest of the world buys it, that's not who they're selling to.

[unclevlad]

3 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

It's posturing for their domestic audience. They don't care if the rest of the world buys it, that's not who they're selling to.

 

Probably to some degree, but it's also a warning/threat to their "allies."  Back us, or else!!!

[Old Man]

Lol what allies?

[Old Man]

Meetings today at the Kremlin and Rammstein:

 

[Ragitsu]

2 hours ago, Old Man said:

Lol what allies?

 

The secret Siberian bear army, for starters.

[DShomshak]

Speaking of Ukraine's intelligence on Russian movements... Today's All Things Considered had a story on one important source the Russians seem unwilling or incapable of doing anything about: Cell phones.

 

When Russia invaded, soldiers of all ranks carried cell [hones. Ukrtaine had the country's service providers block service to any phone registered as Russian. Oops, the Russian generals don't seem to have thought of that. No problem: They take cell phones from Ukrainians. If those Ukrainians are still alive, they report the stolen phone to their service provider and the government, which then knows whch numbers and signals to listen in on. The Russians don't seem willing or able to set up their own secure communications system.

 

As Judge Judy would say, "Stupid stupid, stupid!"

 

Dean Shomshak

[unclevlad]

4 hours ago, Old Man said:

Lol what allies?

 

Quite a few, far more than you might realize.  Plus, I should clarify:  their significant trading partners like Syria, that are too vested to come out against the invasion. Quite a few of those in Africa, for example.

[Lord Liaden]

The Ukrainian government has released many recordings of intercepted Russian cell 'phone conversations, not just soldier-to-soldier, but soldiers speaking with their loved ones back in Russia. Many of them have been posted to government and private channels on YouTube, usually with subtitles with English translations. FWIW I've read several comments on these recordings claiming to be Russian speakers, who assert that the conversations have Russian accents, syntax and colloquialisms.

 

Assuming they're legitimate, they offer many insights on what's happening on the ground, and the attitudes of the Russians back home.

 

A good place to start is the channel of the Security Service of Ukraine, with a playlist of English-translated recordings:

 

[Lord Liaden]

7 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

 

Quite a few, far more than you might realize.  Plus, I should clarify:  their significant trading partners like Syria, that are too vested to come out against the invasion. Quite a few of those in Africa, for example.

 

Some of those alliances are rather shaky, though. Take Kazakhstan, which only a few months ago received Russian military help to quell demonstrations in that country. A few weeks ago Russia requested Kazakh troops to bolster their Ukraine invasion, but their government declined.

 

Kazakhstan appears to be trying to find a middle of the road between alienating Russia and being punished by Western economic sanctions. https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-seeks-to-thread-diplomatic-needle-over-russias-ukraine-war