Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[Pariah]

There's a part of me that hopes President Biden decides not to run for reelection. Not because I particularly dislike him, and certainly not because I think ANYONE from the Republican side would be a better option, but because I don't think he's up for four more years of this. He's not in as dire a situation as the former President, who is narcissistic, delusional, and arguably seriously mentally ill, but I don't think Mr. Biden is the best option for the next four years.

 

Who is? Beats the hell out of me, Roy.

[Cygnia]

How the Right Is Bringing Christian Prayer Back Into Public Schools

[Lord Liaden]

1 hour ago, unclevlad said:

 

I'd say it's closer to "refuses to give us everything we ask for, no matter what" in this case.  Yours is right in some other contexts, tho, to be sure.

 

EDIT:  strike "ask for."  Demand.

  

1 hour ago, archer said:

 

The main reason they're withdrawing is that they think Trump will be the nominee again if he wants it and he can't debate.

 

 

Can you explain what the above amounts to other than, "Don't ask us questions we don't know the answer to or that would incriminate us?" And pursuant to that,

 

1 hour ago, archer said:

 

Everyone on the Republican side except for Trump is eager to get Biden as a debate opponent.

 

I would say that only applies if they can set the ground rules of the debate to avoid discussions of policy (which they have none of) and stick to culture-war talking points; and to not be fact-checked for their numerous lies in real time. When it comes to real debating, the current leading Republicans have all shown themselves to be poor performers. They're only good at rabble-rousing.

[unclevlad]

23 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

I would say that only applies if they can set the ground rules of the debate to avoid discussions of policy (which they have none of) and stick to culture-war talking points; and to not be fact-checked for their numerous lies in real time. When it comes to real debating, the current leading Republicans have all shown themselves to be poor performers. They're only good at rabble-rousing.

 

Unfortunately, it works pretty well for them.

 

EDIT:  another thought about trying to protect Trump from debate debacles.  The Democrats already have a major theme they can hammer...in a 10 second spot, no less.  Put up a picture of Vladimir Putin on one side, a scrolling montage of the atrocities on the other.  Simple voiceover:  "Do you want to put this man's staunch ally back in the White House?"  

[Dr. MID-Nite]

6 hours ago, Cygnia said:

Republican party withdraws from US Commission on Presidential Debates

 

The Dems need to go all out in branding the Reps cowards for doing this.

[archer]

13 minutes ago, Dr. MID-Nite said:

 

The Dems need to go all out in branding the Reps cowards for doing this.

 

Yeah but I don't think it'd make much impact until after the 2024 primaries. And by then, this RNC decision might well be reversed.

[Lord Liaden]

But it might have some influence on the Congressional mid-terms. The Democrats need to go on the attack more in general.

[unclevlad]

If the Republicans can continue to gerrymander as successfully as it appears they may be in Florida, the mid-terms are likely a foregone conclusion.  

[archer]

1 hour ago, Lord Liaden said:

But it might have some influence on the Congressional mid-terms. The Democrats need to go on the attack more in general.

 

Well, the midterms are seven months away and that issue doesn't directly impact the midterm election itself.

 

I'd think they'd be better off trying to pass more legislation and pointing out the benefits of the legislation they've passed. And if they wanted to pull out an unrelated issue for the midterms, talk about how many Republicans are supporting Russia and not supporting Ukraine.

 

I mean, the presidential debate commission is kind of a real "inside baseball" kind of issue that means a lot to policy wonks and fans of the political process. But I don't think it'll have much effect on most people...until the debates either do or don't happen.

[unclevlad]

To continue that, I'm not sure how many people will really notice if there are no presidential debates. My feeling is...not that many.  And if that's close to true?  It's implausible to think it'll make any difference in the fall mid-terms.

 

The first real test for the Republicans should actually be upcoming fairly soon, with the primaries.  How many Trump-endorsed candidates win nomination, how many don't?  Analyzing this may well be tricky, tho.

[wcw43921]

Condemned Man In South Carolina Chooses Firing Squad

[unclevlad]

13 minutes ago, wcw43921 said:

Condemned Man In South Carolina Chooses Firing Squad

 

When no option is palatable, and "no preference" is not allowed, is it really a choice?

 

Mind, lethal injection has been questioned;  it's not a given that it's just drifting off to sleep.  A side point:  firing squads may remain infrequent enough to make the question meaningless, but...it would be interesting to me, to know how many of the staff decline to do more than one.  The emotional reality/aftermath will be more than some bargained for.  

[archer]

5 hours ago, unclevlad said:

To continue that, I'm not sure how many people will really notice if there are no presidential debates. My feeling is...not that many.  And if that's close to true?  It's implausible to think it'll make any difference in the fall mid-terms.

 

 

 

In 2016, Trump got an excessive amount of free media coverage by all the cable news channels as they showed his rallies repeatedly in their entirety while not doing the same for his opponents.

 

In 2020, only Fox really covered his rallies and I don't know whether they showed them in their entirety. But Trump was able to communicate with his potential voters on social media.

 

I really don't know what a 2024 contest would look like if networks don't show Trump rallies, Trump has no access to social media, he doesn't show himself to the public in debates, and he doesn't have the opportunity to directly confront the sitting president who gets a lot of free media coverage himself because he's a sitting president.

 

I think people would eventually notice that they're not getting anything but campaign ads to tell them about the candidates they have to choose between...and be dissatisfied at the lack of seeing a direct confrontation between them.

 

I don't think Trump at that point will be able to successfully spin, even to his own voters, that he's better off not debating. And certainly won't be able to spin it to his advantage to swayable voters because he won't have access to them in order to sway them.

 

2 cents

[archer]

NATO member Romania has grounded its remaining fleet of 23 to 36 MiG-21 LanceR jets as of Friday given their "considerably high accident rate", and will speed up a planned purchase of second-hand F-16s from Norway, their defense ministry said.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romania-suspends-military-mig-21-flights-speed-up-f-16-purchase-2022-04-15/

 

The MiG-21 is an older generation of fighter than the MiG-29 that Ukraine currently uses. And Ukraine has used the -21 in the past. So it's similar enough that their pilots could use them immediately if they had them. And the -21 was specifically designed to be friendly to low-skill pilots so it could be easily exported to third world countries.

 

Since Romania will no longer use them at all due to a crash in bad weather in March, it'd seem a no-brainer to work out some deal to transfer them to Ukraine.

[Pariah]

The former President doesn't need to spin anything to his voters. They'll vote for him regardless of what he says or does. 

[Iuz the Evil]

So much for “the Moskva sank due to an accidental fire “…

[TrickstaPriest]

Wonder why I'm still hearing stuff from the dems about Trump, not Abbott or DeSantis.  Or better yet, go for the source, Tucker.

 

I kept on telling myself "you know, rejecting an ongoing pandemic would have to be the death of the R party, wouldn't it?  people having to bury their dead, killing hundreds of thousands of Americans due to negligence, that should surely end their popularity."

"you know, inciting massive protests for counting the ballots AS THEY WERE BEING COUNTED would have to be the death of the R party for any sane individual, wouldn't it?" 

"inciting an attempted revolt in the capital would have to be the..."

 

The latest seems to be "siding with Russia as it literally murders thousands of Ukranians would have to be the..."

 

At this point?  I think we have to concede that if these issues aren't heavily advertised, there's no expectation that people will accept 'reality'.

[Iuz the Evil]

25 minutes ago, TrickstaPriest said:

Wonder why I'm still hearing stuff from the dems about Trump, not Abbott or DeSantis.  Or better yet, go for the source, Tucker.

 

I kept on telling myself "you know, rejecting an ongoing pandemic would have to be the death of the R party, wouldn't it?  people having to bury their dead, killing hundreds of thousands of Americans due to negligence, that should surely end their popularity."

"you know, inciting massive protests for counting the ballots AS THEY WERE BEING COUNTED would have to be the death of the R party for any sane individual, wouldn't it?" 

"inciting an attempted revolt in the capital would have to be the..."

 

The latest seems to be "siding with Russia as it literally murders thousands of Ukranians would have to be the..."

 

At this point?  I think we have to concede that if these issues aren't heavily advertised, there's no expectation that people will accept 'reality'.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/03/15/public-expresses-mixed-views-of-u-s-response-to-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/full-list-31-republicans-voted-against-military-aid-ukraine-1687052%3Famp%3D1
 

The vote was 68-31. Given our domestic politics, that’s an unprecedented show of bipartisanship.

 

(/sarcasm) 

[TrickstaPriest]

1 minute ago, Iuz the Evil said:

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/03/15/public-expresses-mixed-views-of-u-s-response-to-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/full-list-31-republicans-voted-against-military-aid-ukraine-1687052%3Famp%3D1
 

The vote was 68-31. Given our domestic politics, that’s an unprecedented show of bipartisanship.

 

(/sarcasm) 

 

Yeah.  A few, shockingly few, are starting to read the writing on the wall.

 

But people have such a short memory.  It's worth reminding people (via old Tucker Carlson videos on Fox, for example) of how they were fighting to undermine this over the last ten years.  How unbelievable it is to have to see (as a leftist) Right-wing talk-show people and now politicians side-advocating literal violence against me for the last ten years.  And that they have literally hundreds of thousands of American dead on their hands for their constant attempts at undermining the pandemic response (you can even say it was Trump that finally started to try and walk them back... and couldn't) - possibly the single worst self-harming political act from this country in the last century.

 

Because if we aren't actually showing people the videos, if we aren't advertising this actively, it might as well not have happened.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Iuz the Evil said:

So much for “the Moskva sank due to an accidental fire “…

 

While I'm inclined to believe the Ukranians scored with missiles, sacking the responsible admiral doesn't prove the argument.  Commanding officers, and commanding flag officers, get sacked and/or disciplined when major losses occur due to accidents which "should not have been possible" if appropriate training and leadership were in place.

[Iuz the Evil]

49 minutes ago, Tom said:

 

While I'm inclined to believe the Ukranians scored with missiles, sacking the responsible admiral doesn't prove the argument.  Commanding officers, and commanding flag officers, get sacked and/or disciplined when major losses occur due to accidents which "should not have been possible" if appropriate training and leadership were in place.

True, but then there’s this.. 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/pentagon-attributes-moskvas-sinking-to-ukraine-missile-strikes-report-01650042236

[DShomshak]

This is long, but IMO worth it. Academic who studoes corrup;tion assesses the US, China and (for the updated edition) Russia. Biggest takeaway: There are multiple forms of corruption, causing harm in different ways. If you want to reduce corruption, first you need to know what forms of corruption actually take place.

 

https://freakonomics.com/podcast/is-the-u-s-really-less-corrupt-than-china-and-how-about-russia-update/

 

Insight from the update: The oligarchs who rule/own Russia never had much reason to care about sanctions, and still don't. China is in a very different situation. (Sanctions might be difficult, but they would be different difficulties.)

 

Dean Shomshak

[Tom]

I've seen a couple of similar stories.

 

I've just not seen anything claiming more than "medium confidence" or providing anything other than unnamed sources.

 

I find it much easier to believe the Russians got sucker-punched by a missile or two than an accidental fire somehow detonated a magazine, but the latter isn't impossible.

 

I'm more surprised NATO didn't have an AWACs monitoring the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet, but that also isn't impossible depending on the exact when/where,

[Lord Liaden]

2 hours ago, TrickstaPriest said:

Because if we aren't actually showing people the videos, if we aren't advertising this actively, it might as well not have happened.

 

I don't disagree; but the people who most need to see those videos would only watch them if they were run on networks with a vested interest in not showing those videos.

[Joe Walsh]

Revisionaries author A.R. Moxon just published the fourth part of a series of essays on how to change the underlying ideas of society. That is, how to change what's deemed possible within the society (for good or ill). It's about how successful movements get things changed -- and how entrenched interests keep any discussion of real change out of polite conversation. Really good stuff.

Here's a link to part one, which has links to the other three parts:

https://www.getrevue.co/profile/juliusgoat/issues/one-about-the-atmosphere-1037410