Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[unclevlad]

Yeah, Beau's elucidating why I think this is a fundamental, existential crisis for Disney.  If they lose in court, there is no path forward. 

 

The second big point is huge, and yeah, I'd not thought about it per se.  Florida has just cut its own throat.  This move has made Florida...and potentially, Texas, which feels like they'd try to do something similar...toxic to long-term investment and development.  In many ways, it feels much like Trump's unilateral withdrawal from the Paris accords.  It's quite similar:  US politicians will refuse to honor existing commitments based strictly on personal whim.  

 

Tom:  interesting take there.  Trump's only loyalty was to Trump;  he made that clear.  Even bare your teeth at Trump...you didn't have to bite the hand...and he'd toss you under the bus.  DeSantis is probably closer to a classic petty tyrant here, but it's along the same lines:  opposition will not be tolerated, and damn the consequences.

 

A part of me wishes that this does go through.  The catastrophe has to be total...as we all think it would be.  It feels that's the level of negative consequence needed to stop Trumpism.  If Disney wins in court, that'll just be more fodder for Fox News to rail about liberal courts blocking necessary progress.  They'll just use it as fuel to stoke their base.  OTOH...first, the precedent would TRULY be a disaster.  It might be worse than the Texas abortion lawsuit permission.  I'd have to think about it.  It's at that level, tho, pretty clearly.  Second, this would destroy so, so, so many lives.  All the locals, of course...but Disney stock *tanks* and guess what?  Pension plans most likely own a LOT!!! of Disney stock.  There may be plans that collapse based on the degree of loss.  The entire surrounding area becomes an economic black hole.

[Pattern Ghost]

On 4/22/2022 at 4:03 AM, Lord Liaden said:

A political commentator I follow pointed out

 

Were his initials N.M. by any chance?

[Lord Liaden]

No.

[Pattern Ghost]

Did he look like this, by any chance?

 

 

Because that idea seemed quite . . . Machiavellian.

[Iuz the Evil]

It’s a bad time to be a Russian rocket scientist…

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10746369/Cover-25-military-scientists-killed-fire-Russian-weapons-research-facility.html

 

or Oligarch…

 

 

 

Or general…

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_generals_killed_during_the_2022_invasion_of_Ukraine
 

Damn. That’s a bunch of dead generals.

[Lord Liaden]

Building a movement around Alexey Navalny, Putin's jailed nemesis

 

Biden vows to take in Ukrainians — but not as official refugees

 

Why a tiny Pacific nation’s China deal is getting global attention

[Ragitsu]

Watford?!

[assault]

7 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

Why a tiny Pacific nation’s China deal is getting global attention

US warns against allowing Chinese military base in Solomon Islands, promises to fast-track reopening an embassy

There are times when "reopening an embassy" sounds like a threat.

More broadly, there will be massive US/Australian interference in the next election campaign. If that doesn't work, expect "unrest", followed by Australian peacekeepers and a coerced resignation of the elected government.

Because China is a threat to democracy in the Solomons.

[Iuz the Evil]

Interesting report on Ukraine’s decision in the 1990s to surrender the nuclear arsenal left behind following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

 

https://www.npr.org/2022/02/21/1082124528/ukraine-russia-putin-invasion

 

Unfortunately, the current events are going to be pointed to by any nation in the future. A political “guarantee” to protect your security is apparently not worth as much as having nuclear capacity. Nobody really seems to think Russia would be invading were Ukraine a nuclear capable nation. And it is inherently in the interest of the United States to prevent the emergence of new nuclear powers.

 

I thought it was interesting to consider in light of the current military situation.

[Cygnia]

California man arrested and charged with making threats against Merriam-Webster

[Pattern Ghost]

1 hour ago, assault said:

Because China is a threat to democracy in the Solomons.

 

Probably concerned about something like this:

 

 

[assault]

Sorry, can't see the video. "The uploader has not made this video available in your country".

[Pattern Ghost]

It was a Daily Show video about China colonizing Africa through economic shenanigans / loansharking. Here's a couple text articles:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2019/10/03/what-china-is-really-up-to-in-africa/?sh=7c65d8df5930

 

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/jul/31/china-in-africa-win-win-development-or-a-new-colonialism

[Cygnia]

Congressman says he got advice from 'cult deprogrammers' to learn how to deal with his extremist Congress colleagues

[DShomshak]

On 4/22/2022 at 4:03 AM, Lord Liaden said:

 

A political commentator I follow pointed out that it's in the interests of the West, more specifically America and NATO, to keep the war in Ukraine dragging on, although not necessarily as intensely as it has been. If Ukraine keeps Russia's attention and resources focused on it, that takes Russia off the chessboard of the rest of the globe, and frees up the West to concentrate on dealing with China. In the meantime the military-industrial complex continues to profit.

 

As said commentator frequently says, national governments' foreign policy isn't about morality. It's about power.

The Russia-China entanglement was the cover story for the March 19, 2022 issue of The Economist.  Their analysis is that Xi Jinping finds Putin and his war useful as a tool to gauge the power and resolve of the West in general, and the US in particular, as a guide for his own geopolitical strategy -- and as a tool to weaken American power. As such, they suggest how the US responds to Putin's invasion is a way of dealing with Chinese ambitions. If the alliance to support Ukraine goes wobbly, Xi may conclude that he can afford the price to move against Taiwan or ramp up his bullying of other East Asian neighbors. Conversely, if the US, NATO and further allies back Ukraine to the degree of dealing Russia a catastrophic defeat -- its military exhausted and humiliated, its economy shattered, and Putin possibly deposed and dead -- why, Xi will decide he needs to play a longer game in his quest to seize primacy from the US.

 

It seems to me that by this logic, the swifter Russia's defeat, the better for curbing China.

 

Dean Shomshak

[Lord Liaden]

2 hours ago, DShomshak said:

 

 

It seems to me that by this logic, the swifter Russia's defeat, the better for curbing China.

 

Dean Shomshak

 

I understand that reasoning, but I'm not sure I agree with it. I suspect Xi is more observing the West's long-term resolve over this conflict. I don't believe Xi or anyone else expects NATO to intervene to an extent that utterly crushes Russia, unless Putin goes full-on Dr. Strangelove. The alliance has already shown it wants to avoid making Putin so desperate that he'd consider using his nuclear arsenal a necessary step to survive. So a swift end to this war looks like a low probability. Moreover, China is in a much better position to absorb any short-term shock, economic or military, than Russia.

 

However, Xi appears to be following a policy of economic imperialism, and pressure from the West on that front could make any provocative action by China, e.g. invasion of Taiwan, too expensive to China to be worth it... if the West shows it's willing to sustain that pressure, even if that's detrimental to itself.

[unclevlad]

7 hours ago, Cygnia said:

Congressman says he got advice from 'cult deprogrammers' to learn how to deal with his extremist Congress colleagues

 

Trumpism is very much like a cult, so...makes sense to me.  Many of us have encountered similar issues;  getting advice from people experienced here?  Can only be a Good Thing.  (Cuz what's going on counts as a Stranger Thing.)

[Starlord]

[unclevlad]

But 'straight' is equally an expression of sexual orientation.

 

Now, OK, the bill's language is classroom instruction, and 3rd grade and under.  That said, how long would it be before

a)  "classroom instruction" is expanded...maybe at first to books or TV shows, and later to advertising, so any mention of something about orientation/identity which a young kid *might* see, is covered

b)  the age group just grows higher and higher.  I'd worry somewhat less about this, but pushing it up to...say...10 or 11?  4th, 5th grade?  I could see that being attempted, easily.  Up to 13 might be straightforward enough, using the PG-13 rating as a baseline.

[Iuz the Evil]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/25/tech/elon-musk-twitter-sale-agreement/index.html
 

Interesting, this is a significant financial investment - to say the least. Internet and twitter reactions aside, I wonder what it all means?

 

[Starlord]

1 hour ago, Iuz the Evil said:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/25/tech/elon-musk-twitter-sale-agreement/index.html
 

Interesting, this is a significant financial investment - to say the least. Internet and twitter reactions aside, I wonder what it all means?

 

 

 

[unclevlad]

Hard to turn down 38% over market valuation.

 

Who knows?  This might be the opening Microsoft has been hoping for, to get an alternate outlet going.  That's presuming, as we fear, that the lies and disinformation and complete BS return to past levels.

 

Another possibility is, this'll push more aggressive limits on data sharing/data use for targeted advertising.  I say that because he's gonna have to make a great deal more money to satisfy his creditors and investors.

 

Also:  this year in particular, ads have gotten MUCH more intrusive on YouTube.  Go back 18 months...watch 3-4 of Beau's videos, maybe a few music-related videos...ads were quite minimal.  Now...every 8-10 minutes, something seems to interrupt.  It's been a tendency;  CNN had relatively few, and they were short.  But now...they're like 30 seconds long and there was no Skip Ad.

[csyphrett]

10 hours ago, Cygnia said:

Congressman says he got advice from 'cult deprogrammers' to learn how to deal with his extremist Congress colleagues

Raskin has said some things to his colleagues in open speeches that might be construed as Why are you so stupid.

CES 

[unclevlad]

36 minutes ago, csyphrett said:

Raskin has said some things to his colleagues in open speeches that might be construed as Why are you so stupid.

CES 

 

Well, if it was about Marjorie Taylor Greene, what else is there to say?  And "why are you so stupid" is never gonna get anyone anywhere, even if it's the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.

[Old Man]

45 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

Also:  this year in particular, ads have gotten MUCH more intrusive on YouTube.  Go back 18 months...watch 3-4 of Beau's videos, maybe a few music-related videos...ads were quite minimal.  Now...every 8-10 minutes, something seems to interrupt.  It's been a tendency;  CNN had relatively few, and they were short.  But now...they're like 30 seconds long and there was no Skip Ad.

 

I've been running uBlock Origin and Adblock Plus so long I forgot YouTube had ads.

 

Then again I don't watch Beau's unwatchable videos either.