Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[DShomshak]

21 minutes ago, Pattern Ghost said:

As for nukes: Only mildly concerned. There are reports of Putin's failing health. He could potentially spite nuke if he's dying anyway, but his own people would probably ignore the orders after the damage he's done to his own rep, if not actively try to take him out. Barring that, our nuclear deterrence capabilities are probably a couple of decades ahead of what anyone thinks they are.

I hope you're right. Paradoxically, defeating Russia might require convincing the people around Putin that Russia will not be defeated so completely that its territorial integrity will be at stake. NATO tanks rolling over the border into Russia? At that point, I'd expect a nuclear response. Russia hemmed in, left to rot until Putin dies (by whatever means) and the new regime decides it'd like to rejoin the world? That may be the best we can do. It doesn't give justice for the people of Ukraine, but they may have to settle for living well.

 

Dean Shomshak

[Pattern Ghost]

I don't think breaching Russia's border would be necessary. Destroy what they bring, push them back, then sanction them. Of course, there's the issue of avoiding the level of sanctioning post-WW I that helped lead to WW II.

[Lord Liaden]

8 minutes ago, Pattern Ghost said:

I don't think breaching Russia's border would be necessary. Destroy what they bring, push them back, then sanction them. Of course, there's the issue of avoiding the level of sanctioning post-WW I that helped lead to WW II.

 

That's my concern as well. As I'd mentioned earlier, a great many Russians are already convinced much of the world is out to get them. Putin is stoking that fire with propaganda to prop up support for his war. If Russia is repressed too hard over this, it may lead to another imperial nationalist resurgence in a generation or two. OTOH Russia has been in decline for decades. Their population is aging and shrinking, and many of their best minds are leaving the country. They may not be able to sustain a threat in future.

[DShomshak]

Possibly of interest as another case of, "Um, that wasn't the plan": Some in the British Parliament want to reform libel laws that make it very easy for well-heeled malefactors to squelch inquiries into them and their ill-gotten gains -- laws that Russian oligarchs use with great enthusiasm.

 

https://www.marketplace.org/2022/04/29/brits-push-back-against-slapp-lawsuits-that-gag-critics-of-oligarchs/

 

Linked from this, an interview with a sociologist who studies oligarchs. He says the sanctions are hitting the oligarchs a lot harder than the mere financial impact -- because the world of the giga-rich is a lot more like middle school than you may have thought.

 

https://www.marketplace.org/2022/03/11/russian-oligarchs-elite-sanctions-sociology/

 

Dean Shomshak

[csyphrett]

I seem to have lost a couple of posts from earlier one was in response to the housing thing in other news and one here. The one here was Republican running for local school board owes thousands to IRS and child support and might be unqualified to sit in a position to vote on where money should go for school planning

CES

[DShomshak]

Just heard on BBC: Over the weekend, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov opined that there was nothing nutty about accusing accusing Ukrained Jewish Pres. Zelenskyy of Nazism because, after all, Adolf Hitler may have been part Jewish.

 

Reaction from Israel has been, hm, vehement.

 

Here's a story with the details:

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-61296682

 

Up until now, Israel has kept quiet and tried not to take sides in the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Ye gods, is Russia's government trying to gin up more enemies?

 

Dean Shomshak

[unclevlad]

55 minutes ago, DShomshak said:

Ye gods, is Russia's government trying to gin up more enemies?

 

Dean Shomshak

 

Of course not.  They don't need to try.  

 

Not like Israel would be their buds regardless, for that matter.

[Cygnia]

Trump on BLM Protesters: ‘Can’t You Just Shoot Them?’

[assault]

10 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

Not like Israel would be their buds regardless, for that matter.

 

They appear to have built up a tacit collaboration in Syria, with the Russians conspicuously failing to oppose Israeli airstrikes against Iranian-linked targets.

Israel obviously would rather Assad be a Russian client, rather than an Iranian one.

By itself, this episode won't change this, although the distraction of Russian attention presents an opportunity for Iran.

[unclevlad]

2 minutes ago, Cygnia said:

Trump on BLM Protesters: ‘Can’t You Just Shoot Them?’

 

Haven't there been similar revelations in the past?  

[unclevlad]

Just dropped in my inbox, this little bomb from NYT:

 

Quote

Leaked Supreme Court Draft Would Overturn Roe v. Wade

 

We had some hope, I suppose, they wouldn't...but I don't think many are particularly surprised.

 

This is 2022, not 1922.  But the way laws in many states are going...1822 might be closer.

[Lectryk]

2 hours ago, unclevlad said:

Just dropped in my inbox, this little bomb from NYT:

 

 

We had some hope, I suppose, they wouldn't...but I don't think many are particularly surprised.

 

This is 2022, not 1922.  But the way laws in many states are going...1822 might be closer.

 

Alito isn't wrong in his assessment, Ginsburg also said similar things.  But, what are principled people to do, when the State governments are full of jack asses?

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/02/politics/roe-v-wade-supreme-court/index.html

 

This might be the final spur needed to get liberals motivated to support candidates for Congress, who will take steps to protect rights.  For example, to enact supreme court reforms (impose an age limit, length of service, whatever is best; not pack the court but raise the number to the existing number of circuits rationalizing the system, same for ethics rules, etc).  This new congress could also act to roll back the Federal retrenchment that Republicans are/have been spearheading.

 

I doubt that will happen.  There's nobody in the Democratic Party, who the Party supports, who will come out as the standard bearer for the change that is needed.  It's such a shame - this and the voter rights restrictions are such core values the Democrats ran on in the 50's, 60's, 70's...  rights and freedoms to the people.

 

[Lord Liaden]

33 minutes ago, Lectryk said:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/02/politics/roe-v-wade-supreme-court/index.html

 

 

"According to a CNN Poll conducted by SSRS in January, most Americans oppose overturning Roe, with a majority saying that if the decision was vacated, they'd want to see their own state move toward more permissive abortion laws.

Just 30% of Americans say they'd like to see the Supreme Court completely overturn its Roe vs. Wade decision, with 69% opposed -- a finding that's largely consistent both with other recent polling and with historical trends."

 

Another example of a minority of Americans on the extreme political and social Right maneuvering to usurp the will of the majority, and reverse the advancement of civilization.

 

I'm so sorry, my American friends. I fear you won't be getting off this train until someone blows up the tracks.

[Cygnia]

I need my uterus gone NOW.

[Hermit]

Get ready for a colossal brain drain from red states to blue ones among women, or for that matter, from our whole country. If Canada and the EU found themselves flooded with requests for immigration from American women after this I would not be surprised. 

 

 

[TrickstaPriest]

9 minutes ago, Hermit said:

Get ready for a colossal brain drain from red states to blue ones among women, or for that matter, from our whole country. If Canada and the EU found themselves flooded with requests for immigration from American women after this I would not be surprised. 

 

Most women can't afford that move, I'm afraid  

[Hermit]

1 minute ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

Most women can't afford that move, I'm afraid  

 

Fair point I suppose I should say 'among the middle class and up' but then, those women could afford a 'trip overseas' for medical procedures

 

 

[TrickstaPriest]

Pretty sure it was Texas that made it illegal for doctors to try and suggest/sell women birth control, too?

[TrickstaPriest]

It really does seem as though gay rights is next, judging by the draft.

[Joe Walsh]

Oh, they have a whole menu to choose from based on the draft. Gay marriage, anti-sodomy laws, interracial marriage, contraception...

It seems clear to me that, if they aren't stopped, they'll get to them all, in time, and more.

And Democrats, in control of the other two branches of government, aren't even talking about eliminating the filibuster, let alone expanding the court.

All they're saying is to send them more money and vote harder (curiously, voting rights are another issue they've refused to use their power on).

Dems have had 50 years to codify abortion rights into law, but never did so.

Now they're saying that if we just wait until the next election and give them more money and vote for them, then this time surely they'll do what's needed.

I don't have a lot of hope for avoiding an increasingly fascist, anti-democratic future.

[Hermit]

I will admit, the democratic party seems skittish about big steps but at this point, I think only big steps can course correct. Of course, the senate isn't as much theirs as they hoped it would be

[unclevlad]

10 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

 

I'm so sorry, my American friends. I fear you won't be getting off this train until someone blows up the tracks.

 

Don't think you won't be hit by the shrapnel up there.

And I'm hoping desperately that it's ONLY the tracks that get blown up.

 

Anyone else here read Marc Stiegler's Brain Trust series of near-future sci fi?

[Joe Walsh]

 

[Lord Liaden]

1 hour ago, unclevlad said:

 

Don't think you won't be hit by the shrapnel up there.

And I'm hoping desperately that it's ONLY the tracks that get blown up.

 

Anyone else here read Marc Stiegler's Brain Trust series of near-future sci fi?

 

Believe me, we're acutely aware that such troubles wouldn't stay within your borders. But we won't get the worst of it.

 

"Tracks" was a metaphor for a whole lot of potential stuff. Blown tracks can just block forward progress, or derail and wreck the train.

 

Haven't read Stiegler, sorry.

[Lord Liaden]

5 hours ago, Hermit said:

 

Get ready for a colossal brain drain from red states to blue ones among women, or for that matter, from our whole country. If Canada and the EU found themselves flooded with requests for immigration from American women after this I would not be surprised. 

 

 

5 hours ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

Most women can't afford that move, I'm afraid  

 

Anit-abortion laws always impact women without money or power. You know the families with enough money will be able to get abortions, whatever the law says. And the politicians who challenged Roe v Wade know it to. Those are their donors, the only people they look out for.