Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[archer]

A very fast moving afternoon with Russia and Ukraine.

 

Putin announced Russia is recognizing the two separatist areas of Ukraine to be independent nations.

 

A couple of hours later, the EU and US announced sanctions on Russia. UK said sanctions would be announced tomorrow.

 

Putin a few minutes ago announced he was sending troops into the two separatist areas for peacekeeping operations.

 

=================

 

EU responding with sanctions against Russia
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/02/21/press-statement-by-president-charles-michel-of-the-european-council-and-president-ursula-von-der-leyen-of-the-european-commission-21-february-2022/

UK announcing sanctions against Russia tomorrow

US announcing Executive Order to ban new investment, trade, and financing by U.S. persons to, from, or in the so-called DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine. It will also provide authority to impose sanctions on any person determined to operate in those areas of Ukraine. And will also soon announce additional measures related to today’s blatant violation of Russia’s international commitments.

These are in addition to economic sanctions we have been preparing in coordination with Allies and partners should Russia further invade Ukraine.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/21/statement-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-on-russian-announcement-on-eastern-ukraine/

 

 

Putin orders Russian troops to separatist states for ‘peacekeeping operations’

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/21/russia-ukraine-news-latest-crisis-putin-biden-summit-kyiv-kiev-russian-invasion-threat-live-updates

[TrickstaPriest]

This is going bad fast.

[megaplayboy]

It was headed that way months ago, when Russia started sending Battalion Tactical Groups westward.  2/3 of their ground combat power is now concentrated around Ukraine from 3 directions.  

[archer]

 

[Ragitsu]

Swinging by a McDonald's, maybe?

[archer]

7 minutes ago, Ragitsu said:

Swinging by a McDonald's, maybe?

 

 Maybe.

 

You could see the groove the tanks were tearing into the road surface. That was almost painful for me to watch.

 

I'd hate to see what the McDonald's parking lot looked like after the tanks got through with it...but I think I've seen something very similar in other McDonald's parking lots.

[Pariah]

So once Putin has the rest of Georgia and the Ukraine under his thumb, what's next? Belarus? Kazakhstan? The Baltic states? 

[Iuz the Evil]

24 minutes ago, Pariah said:

So once Putin has the rest of Georgia and the Ukraine under his thumb, what's next? Belarus? Kazakhstan? The Baltic states? 

Baltic States are signatory members of the EU and NATO. Both they and Poland are not really an option on the table, as that will full on trigger WW3

[assault]

Belarus seems like a reliable ally, so not it either 

[Old Man]

Putin has formally recognized Donetsk and Luhansk as "independent territories" and rolled troops in there because that's what you do to respect a territory's independence.  Sanctions to be announced tomorrow by the US, EU, UK, Japan, and some others I'm forgetting.

[Lord Liaden]

I was listening to a theory by a YouTube political commentator, that Putin may be trying out a new strategy to create a buffer zone between Russia and NATO-aligned countries. Rather than overthrowing whole nations on his borders, he may attempt to foment rebellion in regions of countries with separatist leanings, particularly having locally dominant Russian populations; then recognizing their "independence" and moving troops in to "support" them, thereby carving off chunks of other countries' territory.

[TrickstaPriest]

Gabbard's announced her presidential candidacy at CPAC...

[Lord Liaden]

Well, sure, if we could have President Trump, why not President Gender-Bent Trump?

 

[DShomshak]

13 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

I was listening to a theory by a YouTube political commentator, that Putin may be trying out a new strategy to create a buffer zone between Russia and NATO-aligned countries. Rather than overthrowing whole nations on his borders, he may attempt to foment rebellion in regions of countries with separatist leanings, particularly having locally dominant Russian populations; then recognizing their "independence" and moving troops in to "support" them, thereby carving off chunks of other countries' territory.

He already did that with Georgia and Moldova, so, sure. Except that Ukraine is a special thorn in Putin's side because he believes, apparently sincerely, that there is not, never was, and never should be a separate country called Ukraine, the Ukraineans are just deluded Russians. Putin's strategy tree almost certainly involves using any attack on the separatists and their Russian allies as pretext to attack and take Ukraine in toto.

 

One of the great problems in dealing with Putin is that he *does* have strategy trees, and doesn't make a move until he is sure all paths lead to victory. (I suspect that even if Putin pulled his troops back today, he'll have learned a great deal about Western intelligence sources, methods and assets in Russia.) And Western governments are always timidly reactive. Western strategies always seem to be minimax -- minimize your maximum possible losses -- because they don't want to inflict pain on their own people, whether in the form of body bags or just higher gas prices.

 

But minimax is not a strategy to win. It is just a strategy to avoid losing big. Against a patient opponent who can predict your responses, it may be just be a strategy for losing by inches. Putin is such an opponent, and the democratic West is losing.

 

Rationally, I am not in a position to make intelligent suggestions of strategy in dealing with Putin. But I hope Western leaders are ready to be audacious, and irreversible. No more hedging. No more "off ramps." The Cold War has been back on for years, from Russia's side. It's past time Western leaders accepted it and began behaving appropriately.

 

Dean Shomshak

[archer]

The US embassy in Kiev responded to Putin's claim that Ukraine has always been part of Russia.

 

 

[Lord Liaden]

You get that kind of sentiment routinely from Chinese who proclaim that Tibet and Taiwan have always been part of China, so that's the natural order of things. It's a sort of manifest-destiny dogma that isn't subject to reason or compromise.

[TrickstaPriest]

Divine right of kings.  Which is just the way to tell the peasantry "I belong up top" regardless of how many of their cohorts whacked each other for them to get there.

[archer]

Germany PULLS PLUG on Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10538807/Germany-PULLS-PLUG-Nord-Stream-2-gas-pipeline-pressure-builds-Biden-tougher-Putin.html

 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced Tuesday morning in his stunning reversal of previously standing behind the natural gas pipeline: 'The situation has fundamentally changed.' 

Scholz has long resisted including the Russia-to-Germany $10 billion natural gas pipeline as a potential sanction if Russia invaded Ukraine.

[TrickstaPriest]

17 minutes ago, archer said:

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced Tuesday morning in his stunning reversal of previously standing behind the natural gas pipeline: 'The situation has fundamentally changed.' 

 

 

If that follows through, I may put Germany again on 'places I could move to'

[archer]

Putin says the Minsk agreements are dead.

 

https://translate.yandex.com/translate?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pravda.com.ua%2Fnews%2F2022%2F02%2F22%2F7325005%2F&lang=uk-en

 

(original site translated from the original Russian at https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/02/22/7325005/)

 

Among the parts of the Minsk agreement is that neither side would put artillery within 15 km of the border, which would create a 30 km buffer zone. And no foreign military aircraft.

 

Now the separatists have been violating that agreement liberally in recent weeks and shelling Ukrainian towns and military positions. But Putin is basically saying, "Screw the agreements we signed, I'm going to do whatever I want."

 

[archer]

Dmitry Medvedev
@MedvedevRussia

Official (Russia)
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz instructed to stop the certification of the Nord Stream–2 gas pipeline. Well, welcome to a new world in which Europeans will soon be paying 2,000 euros for a thousand cubic meters of gas!

 

 

[archer]

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says Ukraine has no right to sovereignty (on Russia's Channel 24 on February 22).

 

https://translate.yandex.com/translate?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.interfax.ru%2Frussia%2F823676&lang=ru-en

 

translated from https://www.interfax.ru/russia/823676

[DShomshak]

4 hours ago, archer said:

Dmitry Medvedev
@MedvedevRussia

Official (Russia)
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz instructed to stop the certification of the Nord Stream–2 gas pipeline. Well, welcome to a new world in which Europeans will soon be paying 2,000 euros for a thousand cubic meters of gas!

 

 

Today's All Things Considered had an interesting interview with historian Timothy Snyder (specialist in both Eastern Europe and fascism) on on the Russian government's near-constant sarcasm -- a highly undiplomatic approach to diplomacy. He describes it as a sort of post-modern cynical pose, for multiple purposes: to show that Russia is so powerful it doesn't care what anyone else thinks; just to irritate the other side, since it can be hard to think straight when you're angry; and to confuse, since it's not always clear what the speaker really believes.

 

Rhetorically, it bespeaks a contempt for facts. As LL has said elsewhere, you use sarcasm when facts and logic are against you. It projects a worldview where "Nothing is true and everything is possible," and nothing matters except what side you're on and who has the power. According to stories on BBC, ATC, On the Media and others, Russian state-controlled television delivers a constant barrage of such disinformation chaos, with hefty doses of aggrieved outrage how everyone is against Great Mother Russia. (One may note similar rhetorical strategies on Fox "News," suggesting what sort of government and culture Fox's backers want.)

 

Dean Shomshak

[Dr. MID-Nite]

20 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

I was listening to a theory by a YouTube political commentator, that Putin may be trying out a new strategy to create a buffer zone between Russia and NATO-aligned countries. Rather than overthrowing whole nations on his borders, he may attempt to foment rebellion in regions of countries with separatist leanings, particularly having locally dominant Russian populations; then recognizing their "independence" and moving troops in to "support" them, thereby carving off chunks of other countries' territory.

 

Buffer zones in modern warfare are largely an outdated concept. Mechanized and distance warfare like missiles makes it so that occupying enemy territory is not the sole way to defeat opposing forces.

[Lord Liaden]

26 minutes ago, Dr. MID-Nite said:

 

Buffer zones in modern warfare are largely an outdated concept. Mechanized and distance warfare like missiles makes it so that occupying enemy territory is not the sole way to defeat opposing forces.

 

To defeat opposing forces, no. But to take and hold territory, there is no substitute for boots on the ground. We've seen multiple examples of that in conflicts over the past twenty years. Making those boots go through someone else before they can get to your heartland can still be an advantage. Moreover, Russia has the military capability to significantly interdict or degrade the effectiveness of those distance warfare options from any possible attacker, forcing them to add ground assault to the mix.

 

The biggest danger, though, is that the international community will permit Russia to succeed in its expansionism without severe consequences. Don't doubt that China in particular is watching how these events unfold with keen interest.