Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[Nolgroth]

I actually see Trump taking such a call. The siren song of deal making and the subsequent "Look ma, No Nukes" self-congratulatory campaign would be too much to resist.

 

But do you seriously think that someone who executes his very own family with such gleeful abandon would make such a call?

[Michael Hopcroft]

I actually see Trump taking such a call. The siren song of deal making and the subsequent "Look ma, No Nukes" self-congratulatory campaign would be too much to resist.

 

But do you seriously think that someone who executes his very own family with such gleeful abandon would make such a call?

If there's one thing he Kim Jong Un values, it's his own neck. If he believes the only alternative to not making up with the West is his own imminent death, he'll be torn between his pride and self-preservation.

 

That works against peace, too. If he stands down, the Army will probably overthrow and assassinate him because it will be the moment the generals are waiting for -- the moment he shows weakness. They want war even less than most Americans do, but that means they will probably think they can get a better deal with that fat fool out of the way.

[megaplayboy]

I know that Trump has no shame, but the same can't be said for the entire group of people who voted for him. At some point when the ship is taking on water, you start thinking about getting to the lifeboats.

[Doc Shadow]

Did Jim Jones's followers think about getting in the lifeboats?  No! Trump's are exactly the same. Maybe not all of them but his hardcore base, absolutely!

[Doc Shadow]

I'm sorry but as things spiral out of control I'm getting more, and more pessimistic.  

 

For the first time in my life I'm not sure if I'm going to see my next birthday. 

 

My next birthday is 33 days away.

[Nolgroth]

I have no fear that I will live a very long life. In fact, I expect that I will be a burden for my children and perhaps even my grandchildren before I die blissfully ignorant of my own name.

 

This whole North Korea thing is not nearly the bugaboo for me as it is for others. I suppose I could be wrong, but I have literally spent more time worrying about China's response to us putting down their mad dog than I have been about the dog biting us. China's support for sanctions tells me that they are starting to realize that a mad dog can lash out at anybody, including them. I am not worried anymore.

 

I think that Li'l Kim is about to be taken on a one-way trip to the vet, no matter how this plays out.

[Tech priest support]

If I had to deal with NK and my people were telling me the best Intel said there was a danger of that maniac actually launching a nuke, I think I would go for a massive conventional strike at all major government and military installations plus communication facilities.

 

Also I would, as soon as I believed most of their anti air power was neutralized, use massive high altitude cargo planes to drop huge amounts of packaged basic food on the population centers of NK. those poor plops have been starving for decades, it's become a way of life to them. They may not understand that there are alternatives. They may not believe anything else is possible. Also they've been told the west is evil incarnate.

 

Most of them have had no contact with the world outside NK. If we make the first contact they have with the world food literally dropping down from heaven onto them in packages labeled in Korean and claiming it to be aid from South Korea, it might create an unstoppable paradigm shift in the people's view. "Hey people! There are alternatives to lifelong hunger! The rest of the world does not hate you! You have been lied to, started and abused for decades! Have some bread already!"

 

They say to win a war against tyranny you need to win the hearts and minds of the people. Maybe in NK we should start with the people's stomachs and let the rest come around.

 

We won ww2 by sending bombs to the people of Germany and Japan. We won the cold war by sending food and aid to them. Let's see if that model still works.

[Doc Shadow]

Worth a shot. But I doubt 45 will even consider it. He really wants to use those nukes. At his security briefs back in December he kept asking why can't he use the nukes. Given an excuse to launch them, he will.

[Sociotard]

My proposal for North Korea is radical and unpopular, but then so am I.

 

Do-Si-Do with China.

 

South Korea, Japan, and our other allies remain under our nuclear umbrella, but give a few of our South Korean bases to China, under treaty, with intelligence sharing.

 

 

I'm not even saying all the bases. Just the eight closest to the border.  I see this as wins all around.

 

China is happy because one less US base in East Asia is one less base in East Asia. Besides, they do $131 billion in trade with SK, compared with $2 billion with North Korea. They don't want NK to attack.

 

The US is happy because they're paying for fewer bases. Yay, peace dividend. Also, no war. The US doesn't have a big stomach for war. The US is a little sad to see its influence diminish a bit, but it still has many bases in the region, and again, even some still in South Korea. The US interest in the region is continued access to trade, and that will be maintained. The US talks a big game about an interest in human rights violations, but we sure are friends with China and the Philippines. We don't need to keep rattling sabers at NK over their violations.

 

North Korea is Conflicted.  On the one hand, for the first time in sixty years, they won't look south to see the guys that tried to wipe them off the map once. They'll see their Chinese allies. They can play up the "we chased 'em off" card. On the other hand, they need the US there for propaganda purposes.  The US is the bugaboo that keeps the people supporting the government.

 

South Korea  . . . I'm not sure. But it isn't a war, and that has to be good. Again, this would take lots of reassurance that we are still in their corner, if a little more distantly.

[Old Man]

A good idea, but one of the big reasons North Korea exists is that China doesn't want a liberal democracy on its border and South Korea doesn't want a ginormous Communist autocracy on its border.  I'm not sure either would be comfortable with Chinese bases in SK.

[Lord Liaden]

I agree with Old Man. A Chinese military presence on the South Korean side of the border, would probably be as welcome as American soldiers on the North side.

 

I wonder if it would be helpful to turn security at the border entirely over to an international peace keeping force? It's worked in other parts of the world, to keep the forces of rival parties from rubbing up against each other.

[DShomshak]

This whole North Korea thing is not nearly the bugaboo for me as it is for others. I suppose I could be wrong, but I have literally spent more time worrying about China's response to us putting down their mad dog than I have been about the dog biting us. China's support for sanctions tells me that they are starting to realize that a mad dog can lash out at anybody, including them. I am not worried anymore.

 

I think that Li'l Kim is about to be taken on a one-way trip to the vet, no matter how this plays out.

From your mouth (well, keyboard) to the ear of whatever gods there may be.

 

I will say, the last two days I've been hearing Learned Experts interviewed on the BBC and All Things Considered have been saying similar things about China. Latest was that the Chinese government specifically said it would *not* back North Korea if it struck first.

 

Earlier, I've heard news stories that the Chinese people feel contempt for the Kim dynasty. Public opinion is not as strong a force in the PRC as it is in the US, but I would not totally count it out. At least, it suggests the Chinese leadership will not be making its decisions with an eye to pleasing a large pro-NK constituency.

 

Dean Shomshak

[Lord Liaden]

The Chinese regime has made a great show of demonstrating to its people that it's unforgiving of government corruption. The Kim dynasty is as corrupt as dictatorships get. So I can believe that there's no love lost for them in China.

 

It's like the United States propping up the Saudi monarchy. Politics makes strange bedfellows.

[Michael Hopcroft]

The Chinese regime has made a great show of demonstrating to its people that it's unforgiving of government corruption. The Kim dynasty is as corrupt as dictatorships get. So I can believe that there's no love lost for them in China.

 

It's like the United States propping up the Saudi monarchy. Politics makes strange bedfellows.

To be fair, though, their show of being anti-corruption is just that -- a show. In between political favors, nusinesses buying advantage, and organized crime, Beijing is as corrupt as any regime in that part of the world.

 

Of course, now that Vladimir Putin has made kleptocracy hip and cool everyone is doing it. Not the least the businesses who invested so much into putting the Republicans in power in the US so they could get rid of those pesky regulations.

[megaplayboy]

From your mouth (well, keyboard) to the ear of whatever gods there may be.

 

I will say, the last two days I've been hearing Learned Experts interviewed on the BBC and All Things Considered have been saying similar things about China. Latest was that the Chinese government specifically said it would *not* back North Korea if it struck first.

 

Earlier, I've heard news stories that the Chinese people feel contempt for the Kim dynasty. Public opinion is not as strong a force in the PRC as it is in the US, but I would not totally count it out. At least, it suggests the Chinese leadership will not be making its decisions with an eye to pleasing a large pro-NK constituency.

 

Dean Shomshak

They won't back NK if it strikes first, but if we strike first, they will defend NK.  Making the pre-emptive strike idea even worse.  

[Pariah]

Stolen from Facebook:

 

"I fully support our President's desire to go to war with North Korea. Not our military, of course. Just the President."

[Twilight]

They won't back NK if it strikes first, but if we strike first, they will defend NK.  Making the pre-emptive strike idea even worse.  

I actually don't think so.  The US and it's allies are big trading partners for China now, even though Trump likely doesn't like it, I don't see China throwing that away on behalf of the Kims.  There'd be nothing in it for them.

[megaplayboy]

I actually don't think so.  The US and it's allies are big trading partners for China now, even though Trump likely doesn't like it, I don't see China throwing that away on behalf of the Kims.  There'd be nothing in it for them.

You would be wrong.  If NK falls, the net result will be a unified Korea, allied with us, directly on the border with China.  If we strike first, that will be perceived as a "regime change" move.  The PRC will not tolerate that.  

[Pattern Ghost]

I'm not so sure SK wants to absorb NK and reunify German-style. I don't have a current source, but read a lengthy article a while back that stated various reasons, not the least of which being fear of the economic impact.

[Twilight]

You would be wrong.  If NK falls, the net result will be a unified Korea, allied with us, directly on the border with China.  If we strike first, that will be perceived as a "regime change" move.  The PRC will not tolerate that.  

Let's just agree to disagree then.

[Lord Liaden]

To be fair, though, their show of being anti-corruption is just that -- a show. In between political favors, nusinesses buying advantage, and organized crime, Beijing is as corrupt as any regime in that part of the world.

 

I don't doubt it. But it's all about appearances. "Face" is very important in that part of the world, too.

[Lord Liaden]

Megaplayboy, Twilight, Pattern Ghost... you're all probably right. The opposing issues surrounding North Korea are numerous and tangled, which is why it's so tough to define a good course of action, let alone the "right" one. And why I wish we didn't have this particular orange-headed bull charging through this particular china shop.

[Pattern Ghost]

IMO, we should encourage China to install a better-behaved puppet government.

[Tech priest support]

God don't get me started on China. I swear the Chinese people would be better off in a communist country. China isn't communist in any way. It is, IMO, the ultimate capitalist country. It is pure, total and absolute capitalism unfettered by the tiniest trace of humanity.

 

In China most people live as essentially slave labor working in conditions so horrible factories have to install suicide prevention nets around the prison block like dorms workers are forced to live in. Workers make very little and most of it goes right back to their employers, or owners, for food and rent. It's like old company shanty towns in early 20th century America.

 

The government essentially are the CEOs of a national corporation that views most human beings as resources to be used for the maximum profit of the corporation. It is a pure capitalist state with no hint of "communism' in it. Marx, Engles and Lenin would spit on china for calling itself commumist.

 

Even human organs are just a commodity to be harvested from those labeled dissidents a d sold on the open market. Of all the governments on earth today I call china the vilest.

[megaplayboy]

Charlottesville, Virginia is about a 2 hour drive from where I live, and the home of one of the campuses of University of Virginia.  Imagine how I feel about 1000+ people who are, if not actual Nazis, Nazi-adjacent, marching with torches, chanting "blood and soil", "one people, one nation, end immigration" and "we won't be replaced" and encircling a statue of Thomas Jefferson.