Coronavirus

[megaplayboy]

I do worry a bit about the fate of brick-and-mortar "nerd" specialty shops--comics, video games, fantasy/sci-fi bookstores, tabletop gaming stores, etc.  If they're shut down for 2-6 months, some of them, already operating at very marginal profits, may never reopen. 

[Old Man]

It doesn't help that Diamond shut down, either.

[unclevlad]

27 minutes ago, megaplayboy said:

I do worry a bit about the fate of brick-and-mortar "nerd" specialty shops--comics, video games, fantasy/sci-fi bookstores, tabletop gaming stores, etc.  If they're shut down for 2-6 months, some of them, already operating at very marginal profits, may never reopen. 

 

Sad to say...probably a high percentage won't be able to.

 

Worse to say....this is probably true for every small, local, non-essential business.  Most are at risk, and many won't survive, regardless of the nature of the business.  Some weeks ago as NYC was shutting down, the point was made by, IIRC, a restaurant association spokesman, that perhaps as many as 75% of local restaurants won't survive, as they are notoriously undercapitalized.  

 

 

[Old Man]

If you guys know any FLGS store proprietors, that link I posted earlier includes information about small business assistance for payroll and operating expenses. 

 

The one thing stores have going for them is that in a shutdown, their expenses should be mostly limited to rent.  Comics and games won't get stale on the shelf.

[Ragitsu]

Whether we are going to be in this mess (specifically: the worst of the virus itself as opposed to the ensuing economic turmoil) for two years, one year, three months, a decade, etc*, I recommend expanding the interval of your news assimilation from daily to weekly. At the very least, if you must scope out a news outlet, ensure that it focuses on sober delivery of verified developments and not sensationalism that caters to the angry and/or fearful.

 

* I choose to adopt optimism; a vaccine is likely to crop up sooner rather than later.

[unclevlad]

And Worldometer's calendar clicked forward.

 

End of the day...Spain, 748 deaths.  USA, 748 deaths.  Please note that you may see slightly different counts on US sites, because their "day" is very likely midnight Easter to midnight Eastern, and worldometers uses midnight GMT.

 

If the numbers follow the same trajectories........the US will pass Italy tomorrow for most deaths that day.  

[Badger]

1 hour ago, Ragitsu said:

Whether we are going to be in this mess (specifically: the worst of the virus itself as opposed to the ensuing economic turmoil) for two years, one year, three months, a decade, etc*, I recommend expanding the interval of your news assimilation from daily to weekly. At the very least, if you must scope out a news outlet, ensure that it focuses on sober delivery of verified developments and not sensationalism that caters to the angry and/or fearful.

 

* I choose to adopt optimism; a vaccine is likely to crop up sooner rather than later.

 

No, TV news then.

[Old Man]

Look at this projection from today's press conference.  Christ on a stick.  They're projecting 200,000 deaths with shelter in place.

 

[Iuz the Evil]

2 minutes ago, Old Man said:

Look at this projection from today's press conference.  Christ on a stick.  They're projecting 200,000 deaths with shelter in place.

 

Seems about right. We are getting ready for some pretty grim times. 

[Old Man]

Pretty grim. 

[Michael Hopcroft]

17 minutes ago, Old Man said:

Look at this projection from today's press conference.  Christ on a stick.  They're projecting 200,000 deaths with shelter in place.

 

And, as I am reminded, that is an optimistic estimate compared to the 2.2 million that would have been projected had we done nothing.

 

My upstairs neighbor Kyle told me he had run all the way downtown and back today. I found that alarming -- because it's almost like he's asking for infection. He's semi-demented, so nothing I can tell him about sheltering in place is going to sink in. Sort of literally locking him in his apartment, nobody can really compel him to stay. Making matters worse, he has a history of pneumonia that makes him especially vulnerable to COVID-19 infection. Since he doesn't check things like this, he may not find out he has it, if he does, unless he gets gravely ill -- which is not a good sign in an overwhelmed hospital system where the providers are getting sick at an even higher rate than the patients.

 

We do not know what will emerge at the other side of the pandemic. I am reminded of that basic fact all the time now.

[Ragitsu]

4 minutes ago, Old Man said:

Pretty grim. 

 

A hot gothic lady?

[Iuz the Evil]

Human beings do not comply with direction for the most part. The shelter in place has gone remarkably well, all things considered. I do wonder how long it can be sustained... it's a very unnatural state for most people.

 

The increasingly dire medical reality might actually be helpful for compliance purposes. 

[Ragitsu]

1 minute ago, Iuz the Evil said:

Human beings do not comply with direction for the most part. The shelter in place has gone remarkably well, all things considered. I do wonder how long it can be sustained... it's a very unnatural state for most people.

 

The increasingly dire medical reality might actually be helpful for compliance purposes.

 

The oft-cherished United States arrogance could use a good thrashing.

[Iuz the Evil]

48 minutes ago, Ragitsu said:

 

The oft-cherished United States arrogance could use a good thrashing.

Unlikely. More likely will be #rise or #strong after this event unfolds with much discussion of the grit and steadfast determination of the American spirit.

 

It's a much more palatable narrative. 

[Ternaugh]

7 minutes ago, Iuz the Evil said:

Unlikely. More likely will be #rise or #strong after this event unfolds with much discussion of the grit and steadfast determination of the American spirit.

 

It's a much more palatable narrative. 

 

It's already started on several marquees of closed casinos around town, though it's most likely a continuation of the #VegasStrong tag after the 2017 shooting event. 

[Iuz the Evil]

Just now, Ternaugh said:

 

It's already started on several marquees of closed casinos around town, though it's most likely a continuation of the #VegasStrong tag after the 2017 shooting event. 

Indeed. It's actually a pretty healthy coping mechanism. If a tad predictable. And it's self fulfilling in a way. 

 

Truth is, we will survive this. It'll be bad, but folks are pretty resilient when you get right down to it. My tired, disaster response worker snark aside, we will get through this one.

 

Most of us anyway. And that's always the job. 

[ScottishFox]

7 hours ago, Hermit said:

CDC Director is hinting at 24 months?

 

I don't see how we can sustain this for 24 months.

[Iuz the Evil]

3 minutes ago, ScottishFox said:

 

I don't see how we can sustain this for 24 months.

The current social distancing and shelter at home? We cannot. That's absolutely not going to happen.

 

I would think that's assuming it takes 18 months for a vaccine, plus distribution. Even after the current measures end, the virus will continue to be a factor. 

[Pariah]

I believe we can, and we will, if necessary, because there's really no other alternative. We'll figure it out. I don't imagine it will be pretty, but we'll figure it out.

[TrickstaPriest]

27 minutes ago, Iuz the Evil said:

The current social distancing and shelter at home? We cannot. That's absolutely not going to happen.

 

I would think that's assuming it takes 18 months for a vaccine, plus distribution. Even after the current measures end, the virus will continue to be a factor. 

 

I doubt the current model will continue for much longer.  But locations will have to 'wind things up' in a way that's slow and deliberate, otherwise it'll tip over and you'll begin to have scads of deaths after a month or two.

[Matt the Bruins]

On 3/30/2020 at 7:14 PM, unclevlad said:

 

...and I damn sure hope ALWAYS discussing the potential problems *in depth* with anyone whose symptoms aren't that severe.  (Let's face it, severe cases will grasp at straws, so the notion of informed consent is largely a non-starter.)

Based on what the severe cases are doing to people (weeks on a ventilator, then death or scarring that reduces healthy people to the lung function of geriatric emphysemics), a treatment that either works or kills you fast with a heart attack would be something I'd jump at if facing that decision.

[unclevlad]

7 minutes ago, Pariah said:

I believe we can, and we will, if necessary, because there's really no other alternative. We'll figure it out. I don't imagine it will be pretty, but we'll figure it out.

 

 

What scares me......

 

Today, the governor had a briefing, streamed live on FB.  She, the head of NM public health, head of human services, top officer of the NM National Guard (a major general), one other slipping my mind right now.  Good presentations.

 

The scary part was the comments.  Too many focused on "infringing our rights" or "tracking our cell phones they can't do that!" or other nonsense that reflect, IMO, a willful selfishness and a disregard for others.  Or an excessive distrust/paranoia regarding the government.  If even a few act irresponsibly, the consequences can cascade very quickly.  The comments also, IMO, show the chasms that exist in our culture.

 

And this is only 3 weeks in.  We "only" have 4000 deaths.  Conservative modeling is now predicting we'll hit 100,000 in the next couple weeks.  Job losses will mount;  economic hardships will increase.  

 

So my fear is, the fractures that have been spreading through us will break us apart, rather than us trying to bond together against a common threat.

My secondary fear is...ok, we do get through this...but when the time comes to start the recovery, that's going to set off another separate round of fractures.

[Bazza]

[Bazza]

Can anyone verify this?