Coronavirus

[Hugh Neilson]

13 hours ago, Old Man said:

I'd be stressed out too if I was expected to work at, for example, a meat packing plant full of infected coworkers, or else lose my job and my health insurance and not qualify for unemployment.

 

If only there were a large national organization that could send relief funds to citizens on a monthly basis, like in many Western democracies. 

 

Canada is now grappling with those relief funds creating a disincentive for some to return to work.  There is a balance to be struck.

 

How long would we last if no one from the meat packing plant through to the grocery stores showed up for work?

[ScottishFox]

46 minutes ago, Hugh Neilson said:

How long would we last if no one from the meat packing plant through to the grocery stores showed up for work?

 

Once food stops showing up at grocery stores you're going to see some real chaos.

 

Essential work has got to keep moving forward.  Doctors and nurses aren't going to be the only superheroes in this mess.  The men and women keeping food on the shelves (meat packing plants, truck drivers, auto maintenance, etc., etc.) are also going to have to put on their capes and take some risks.

 

I'm doing what little I can here by continuing to patronize local restaurants and small businesses (like the local comic store) because I don't want them going out of business despite the fact I'm on 50% hours.

[Joe Walsh]

At the same time, essential workers should be paid accordingly and given every reasonable protection.

[Old Man]

2 hours ago, Hugh Neilson said:

 

How long would we last if no one from the meat packing plant through to the grocery stores showed up for work?

For almost minimum wage, no less. And the $2/hr “hazard pay” that was being paid  to a few of these workers by a handful of companies is already being rescinded. 

[unclevlad]

2 hours ago, ScottishFox said:

Once food stops showing up at grocery stores you're going to see some real chaos.

 

 

Before then.

 

Did my now-regular, extended grocery run...6 days' worth at a time.  The Sprouts was short on a few things here and there, but the sticker shock on meat was significant.  That store sells sealed packs of flank, skirt, and flat iron steaks.  Each up about $2 or $3 a pound from a couple weeks ago.  Which is about 20%.  I think all the beef was similarly up.  That's gonna raise the pain level.

[Old Man]

[Cancer]

From Science: About superspreaders

[Starlord]

6 minutes ago, Cancer said:

From Science: About superspreaders

 

Please tell me someone invented a device that perfectly spreads jelly and cold butter.

 

That would be awesome.

 

[Old Man]

5 minutes ago, Starlord said:

 

Please tell me someone invented a device that perfectly spreads jelly and cold butter.

 

That would be awesome.

 

 

I don't know about that, but a couple of years ago I found a long spreader that was specifically designed to reach all the way into a peanut butter jar, allowing me to get all the peanut butter out without getting it all over my hand.  It was awesome.

[Old Man]

Free night at the Venetian for expendable I mean essential workers, because if you're going to be unemployed and homeless anyway, why not do it in style?

 

Seriously it's a decent deal and their definition of "essential worker" is pretty broad, check it out:

 

First Responders and other essential workers include, but are not limited to, employees from the below services & sectors. Please contact Resort Services at 866.275.9040 and mention offer code JEAGET to see if you qualify.

• Fire services, law enforcement agencies, emergency medical services & public safety agencies
• Healthcare services
• Businesses or organizations that provide food, shelter, or critical social services for disadvantaged populations
• Public utilities
• Trash collection
• Home maintenance/repair services
• Auto repair services & trucking service centers
• Grocery stores, supermarkets, hardware stores, convenience & discount stores
• Pharmacies, healthcare operations, & biomedical facilities
• Post offices & shipping outlets
• Gas stations & truck stops
• Banks & financial institutions
• Veterinary services & pet stores
• Laundromats & dry cleaners
• Food processing
• Agriculture, livestock & feed mills
• Logistics & Supply Chain Operations: Warehousing, storage, distribution, and supply-chain related operations
• Public transportation
• Air transportation
• Essential stays in hotels, commercial lodging, dormitories, shelters, and homeless encampments
• Educators, childcare centers and daycares

[Joe Walsh]

Another good sign, via an AP poll out today:

Quote

The poll finds that 83% of Americans are at least somewhat concerned that lifting restrictions in their area will lead to additional infections, with 54% saying they are very or extremely concerned that such steps will result in a spike of COVID-19 cases.

https://apnews.com/3562b5a082a27221e532075de509a36c

 

Also, most Americans support wearing facemasks....including most Republicans....according to this huffpost/yougov poll.

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5ec584fcc5b642a7d150e103#comments

 

Both polls are consistent with what I've been seeing right along.

 

Common sense survives!

[death tribble]

The death rate is still on a downward trend in Spain, Italy and France

 

The situation in Britain is not so certain but it looks promising.

[Iuz the Evil]

Just called around a bit. Most restaurants I'm talking to have reservations only for seating, starting Friday with reduced internal capacity (50%). Staff wear face masks and gloves. 6' distancing for dining.

 

This will be interesting. No stand alone bars, but if you serve alcohol and food you still can. 

[TrickstaPriest]

9 hours ago, GM Joe said:

Which, again, isn't to say people aren't hurting. It's outrageous how small businesses are being treated by the federal government, for example. And social isolation is seriously damaging to some, particularly seniors.

 

It's particularly the government's inability to prepare for this problem, and its apparent lack of support for small businesses and people, that has me livid.

 

The distance/space being discussed, keep in mind, is the 'gap' between not an increase in coronavirus spread and social dissolution, but the gap between the 'explosive growth' of coronavirus spread and social dissolution.

 

The world 'exponential' and 'explosive growth' is said a lot.  It's wholly important because the general argument for 'reopening' re-frames it as an 'increase' in coronavirus deaths.  It's not.  It's comparable to a small trend and then a sudden wall.

 

Essentially we aren't computing a steady increase as a risk, we are playing hot potato with a grenade.  It's not a kind analogy, but once it spikes it will take an incredible amount of time (loss of blood?) in order for it to go down.  edit:  The two week lag in particular makes this task very difficult.  That's why testing availability is important, otherwise it's impossible to judge the actual state of 'said grenade'.

 

The worst alternative is not much better.  A complete societal dissolution is a very bad result, much in the same way - it will increase in badness largely linearly, then suddenly collapse.

 

I do think we have much more 'give' on stress -if- we are organized about it, but that doesn't mean 100% lockdown is the way forwards.  In a lot of areas, such a thing hasn't existed since the start of this regardless.  This is especially true given the political motivations in publishing bad data, where it seems weighted against reporting real numbers (which is common, as political 'cya' is much, much more common and extensive than the alternative)

 

Unfortunately our organizational track record is terrible, so I have no faith on success on either front.  edit:  Not in providing support and organization to manage that stress, or in actual honest interest in managing and mitigating the pandemic.

[TrickstaPriest]

In hindsight, my rant illustrates that it's not a simple mechanism to determine how far you can go in opening while managing a higher risk of coronavirus.  Interesting and notable.

[unclevlad]

3 hours ago, Cancer said:

From Science: About superspreaders

 

Admittedly anecdotal, but the counties in NW New Mexico had extremely serious outbreaks...rates 20x higher.  

 

And it makes any deliberate effort to conceal case numbers just that much more of a criminal act.

[Pariah]

On 5/19/2020 at 2:33 AM, Old Man said:

Here's the latest tactic from Vanilla Isis:

 

 

Needless to say, HIPAA and the ADA do not apply to face masks.

 

Sounds like someone in my area was trying this b******t in a store that reopened this week.

 

Business Stands By Policy After Maskless Customer Asked To Leave

[Lord Liaden]

China’s New Outbreak Shows Signs the Virus Could Be Changing

 

Please take serious note of the word, "could."  The article describes the other factors that could explain this data, and that even if it's true it need not be disastrous.

[unclevlad]

2 hours ago, Pariah said:

 

Sounds like someone in my area was trying this b******t in a store that reopened this week.

 

Business Stands By Policy After Maskless Customer Asked To Leave

 

That's a great story...not particularly positive, but to me it just shows the degree of self-centered thinking.  And I particularly like the discussion about the nuances of the ADA.

[Old Man]

Found some updated excess death data from ft.com:

 

 

 

 

Note that data is a few weeks old on some of these. 

 

Might want to put off your South American vacation for a while.

[Old Man]

The U.S. is on track to hit 100000 dead by Sunday.  That's thirty three 9/11s, and the same as the 1968 Hong Kong flu killed in a year.

 

The next milestone is 116516, the U.S. death toll from two years of brutal trench warfare in World War I.  Should be there by the first week of June.

[tkdguy]

https://www.gocomics.com/candorville/2020/05/20

 

 

[Joe Walsh]

14 hours ago, TrickstaPriest said:

It's particularly the government's inability to prepare for this problem, and its apparent lack of support for small businesses and people, that has me livid.

 

Me, too. And it's remarkable to me that there have been terrible failures of leadership in both parties. De Blasio telling people to go out on the town one last time before lockdown. Cuomo cutting medicaid during a pandemic. Democrats in the House not using their leverage to make the Senate bill better. And on and on.

 

Maybe we're just not very good at picking leaders.

[Cygnia]

[Matt the Bruins]

On 5/19/2020 at 1:28 PM, ScottishFox said:

I also wonder how many people we've saved with the shutdowns (I assume at least 50-100k) and how that will stack up against the massive upswing in suicide, drug overdoses, domestic violence and the one I just heard about today - a potentially 20% higher death rate for new cancer patients as their initial diagnosis are delayed for months.

I can't speak to the accuracy, but last night I read that without any response to the pandemic the death toll would be about 250,000 at present, so roughly 150,000 saved. Conversely, if we'd begun widespread shutdowns a week earlier the estimate was we'd have saved another 35,000.