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I'm afraid he might be right....

 

Mitt Romney says Trump will be reelected, but not because he’s popular

 

“I can tell you I think it’s likely he will get reelected, not because he’s highly popular, but because I think the Democrats are not going to nominate someone who’ll be a very effective competitor.”

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1 hour ago, Pariah said:


Trump will be re-elected because he no longer has any reason to not cheat. In fact, re-election is his only chance to avoid prosecution once he leaves office. I don’t think people understand how ugly it’s going to get between now and November. 

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And I think it will probably be worse after he's re-elected. Right now, the only thing providing even a modicum of control for him is that he still has to get reelected. Once his second term starts, any pretense at accountability is right out the window.

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I've never quite understood the visceral hatred the DNC has for Sanders.  Polls show him beating Trump in every swing state but Wisconsin, and he's still tied with Biden there for best Democratic candidate showing.  This is why I was pro-Sanders four years ago--Sanders polled better against Trump than Hillary did.  He is literally the most electable Democratic candidate.

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5 hours ago, Old Man said:

I've never quite understood the visceral hatred the DNC has for Sanders.  Polls show him beating Trump in every swing state but Wisconsin, and he's still tied with Biden there for best Democratic candidate showing.  This is why I was pro-Sanders four years ago--Sanders polled better against Trump than Hillary did.  He is literally the most electable Democratic candidate.

He was mean to me once.

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12 hours ago, Badger said:

The DNC is going to have to get creative in stopping Sanders.

 

Like the GOP managed to stop Trump in 2016?

 

I'm certainly not a fan of Sanders, but I strongly suspect he's tapping into the same vein that got us Trump in the first place.

 

People aren't happy with the way things have been and offering "more of the same" isn't going to be a strong contender.  Almost the standard rule of advertising, you have to be offering "NEW! and IMPROVED!" or you're just background noise.

 

Trump is guaranteed neither defeat or victory in 2020, but if the Democrats want to win they're going to have to offer more than "I'm not Donald Trump" as their central campaign theme.  Not being a registered member of either party, I'm just waiting for the Dems to stop playing musical chairs so we can move on to the main event.

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9 hours ago, Old Man said:

I've never quite understood the visceral hatred the DNC has for Sanders.  Polls show him beating Trump in every swing state but Wisconsin, and he's still tied with Biden there for best Democratic candidate showing.  This is why I was pro-Sanders four years ago--Sanders polled better against Trump than Hillary did.  He is literally the most electable Democratic candidate.

 

Clearly their prefer El Pollo Loco.  

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1 hour ago, Cassandra said:

What right does the DNC have to stop the choice of their voters?

 

The same right they had in 2016 when their nominee was Hillary Clinton, I would argue.

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

 

Like the GOP managed to stop Trump in 2016?

 

I'm certainly not a fan of Sanders, but I strongly suspect he's tapping into the same vein that got us Trump in the first place.

 

People aren't happy with the way things have been and offering "more of the same" isn't going to be a strong contender.  Almost the standard rule of advertising, you have to be offering "NEW! and IMPROVED!" or you're just background noise.

 

Trump is guaranteed neither defeat or victory in 2020, but if the Democrats want to win they're going to have to offer more than "I'm not Donald Trump" as their central campaign theme.  Not being a registered member of either party, I'm just waiting for the Dems to stop playing musical chairs so we can move on to the main event.

 

Unfortunately, that is all, the Dems can bring (or allow themselves to bring).  Since, Election night 2016, they've been consumed by hatred,  playing Captain Ahab to Trump's Moby Dick (which might be an appropriate nickname for Trump, but regardless).

 

It isn't to say like Trump, but, you have to move beyond the 2016 election, and well too many Dems decided to stay somewhere in the first 4 stages of grief.   And it is starting to hurt for them now.

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Mailed in the family's primary ballots today.  WA primary nominal date is March 10, but it's all mail-in now, and with only the presidential candidates to dismiss, might as well get 'em off the dining table.

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I have to be honest, though, I never have participated in a primary.  In VA, our state elections are off-year.  Having to vote, every single year, puts its own toll on me. Hard to pop back up 4 months later for another fun miserable dose of politics.

 

I sometimes feel guilty on that,  but the political process really does kind of wear on me.

 

Edit: For that matter, it has been a really long time since, I have had enough excitement, so early for a candidate, if ever.

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Lessons Learned.

 

1.  Money isn't everything.  Tom Steyer poured millions into Nevada and came in last.

 

2.  Experiences isn't everything.  On paper Joe Biden was the best candidate.  A U.S. Senator for over 30 years, and Vice President for 8, he should have been able to make the case he was the most electable.  He's been undercut by his personal performance and a crowded field that seems to have made him more desperate and less stable.  The result is Biden tied for second place with the former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana.

 

3.  The past comes back to haunt you.  Four years ago there was a perception that Bernie Sanders had the nomination stolen from him by party operatives who had chosen Hillary Clinton instead.  Her defeat seems to have proven their judgement wrong and now it's Sanders' turn.

 

4.  Momentum is a thing.  Sanders has won the first three contests and the perception he is unbeatable.  The opposition is divided and unless they were to unite behind a single well funded candidate for Super Tuesday that perception will the reality.

 

 

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Regardless of whether or not we are talking about the Republicans or the Democrats, there is a divide between party leadership and the rank and file party members.  Trump's initial advantage was his appeal to the disaffected party members within the Republican Party, Independents, and even some Democrats, and by doing so, he managed to beat both the Democrats and the Republicans leaderships.  Bernie speaks well to the disaffected within the Democrat Party and the party leadership feel their positions threatened.

 

That being said, I think the Democrat's best option to win disaffected voters away from Trump was actually Tulsi Gabbard, but she spoke the party line even less than does Bernie; so, she was attacked grievously by both the party leadership and the MSM.

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On 2/22/2020 at 12:55 PM, Old Man said:


Trump will be re-elected because he no longer has any reason to not cheat. In fact, re-election is his only chance to avoid prosecution once he leaves office. I don’t think people understand how ugly it’s going to get between now and November. 

 

You're right about that.  After you've been accused of wanting to give Alaska away to the Russians accusation of cheating aren't going to matter.

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1 hour ago, Anaximander said:

Regardless of whether or not we are talking about the Republicans or the Democrats, there is a divide between party leadership and the rank and file party members.  Trump's initial advantage was his appeal to the disaffected party members within the Republican Party, Independents, and even some Democrats, and by doing so, he managed to beat both the Democrats and the Republicans leaderships.  Bernie speaks well to the disaffected within the Democrat Party and the party leadership feel their positions threatened.

 

That being said, I think the Democrat's best option to win disaffected voters away from Trump was actually Tulsi Gabbard, but she spoke the party line even less than does Bernie; so, she was attacked grievously by both the party leadership and the MSM.

 

Gabbard was by far the most palatable Dem candidate for me, in a lot of ways.  

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