Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[Cancer]

I suppose Putin is too canny to say that Ukraine is ruled by a secret cabal of satanist cannibalistic pedophiles and he's going after those.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, archer said:

 

 

Putin said western sanctions on Russia were akin to a declaration of war, reports Reuters.

 

 

 

I’m thinking I’ve seen where he said something similar fairly recently. Though unless he backs it up with something egregiously stupid, it’s just posturing. 
 

Attacking a NATO country, or pretty much any other country, doesn’t make a whole lot of sense when he apparently has his hands full militarily with Ukraine. 
 

I’m in the camp that suspects he’s just trying to convince everybody else that he just might be crazy enough to do the unthinkable if he’s pushed too far and maybe we shouldn’t be too enthusiastic with the implementation of sanctions. 
 

Hopefully I’m just not trying to reassure myself that Putin hasn’t really gone crazy and he’s trying to convince himself (and the people who would have to actually push the buttons) that he’s justified in trying to destroy world in self-defense. 

[Old Man]

 

Visa and Mastercard cut payment services to Russia.  These account for 84% of retail transactions in Russia.

 

Russian soldiers enter the elevator of a high-rise to shoot Ukrainians from the roof; superintendent promptly cuts power to the elevator:

 

Spoiler

 

Stinger versus low flying Russian helicopter gunship.  NSFW, note that at least two Russians would have been killed in this video.

 

Just one of thousands of innocent Ukrainian victims of Russian artillery.  NSFL, trigger warning for violence against children.

 

 

[Lord Liaden]

13 minutes ago, Old Man said:

 

Russian soldiers enter the elevator of a high-rise to shoot Ukrainians from the roof; superintendent promptly cuts power to the elevator:

 

  Hide contents

 

 

You fight with the weapons you have.

 

I have to say, as many dumb moves as the Russians have made during this invasion, the Ukrainians are making as many smart ones.

[archer]

39 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

 

You fight with the weapons you have.

 

I have to say, as many dumb moves as the Russians have made during this invasion, the Ukrainians are making as many smart ones.

 

When the Ukrainians screw up, there's not a bunch of Russian civilians around to post videos about it.  

[Lord Liaden]

4 hours ago, archer said:

 

When the Ukrainians screw up, there's not a bunch of Russian civilians around to post videos about it.  

 

Granted; but with the huge advantage in military resources the Russians have over the Ukrainians, there's no way the situation should be this bad for them unless they're performing much worse than expected, and the Ukrainians much better. Out of what we have been seeing and hearing, there's been a lot of smart on the Ukrainian side, and a lot of dumb from the Russian.

[archer]

Zelensky held a Zoom call with US Senators yesterday. Afterward, a Democrat Senator came onto MSNBC saying that NATO countries are holding out on their supply of Soviet era MiG-29's. And particularly mentioned Poland not handing them over. (Four of the senators eventually going on the record calling out Poland.)

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/05/white-house-deal-fighter-jets-ukraine-00014424

 

That didn't sound right to me so I started digging.

 

The numbers that have been given over according to the EU were

 

16 MiG-29s from Bulgaria and 14 Su-25s (it's a close air support craft aka as Frogfoot)
12 MiG-29s from Slovakia
28 MiG-29 from Poland

 

Now before the EU decided to do that, Janes Defense (the best source available to civilians) said, "the Polish Air Force fields 21 single-seat and six twin-seat MiG-29s; the Bulgarian Air Force fields 11 single-seat and three twin-seat MiG-29s; while the Slovak Air Force fields nine single-seat and two twin-seat MiG-29 aircraft (although only a small number is thought to still be in an airworthy condition). The Bulgarian Air Force also fields six single-seat and two twin-seat Su-25s."

 

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/ukraine-conflict-eu-to-supply-kyiv-with-fighter-aircraft

 

So either

 

1) Janes is completely wrong, which is highly unlikely

2) the sources quoting the EU are wrong and not all those aircraft have been given over yet (though still promised).

3) or those NATO countries scrapped the bottom of the barrel to give over that number of aircraft...because the number listed by the EU is more than the number which their air forces still had in active service.

 

I supposed some of those Mig-29's are trainers which are typically unarmed and they're having to be fitted with weapons and attachment points for rockets before giving them over to the Ukrainians. Or had been stripped for parts and are having to be restored before being put back into flying condition before they can be flown to Ukraine.

 

But there's not more MiG-29's in NATO countries which haven't been given (or at least promised).

 

 

Now what does exist of old Soviet era aircraft or other aircraft which Ukraine uses that's still within NATO countries?

 

====

 

Poland hasn't given over any of their air force's 18 Sukhoi-22 fighter bombers. There's an additional 14 of those in Poland which have been given over to technical schools, put on display in museums, or stripped for parts since they were taken out of service around 2015. Plus another couple of Sukhoi-20's were given to museums.

 

Now the Ukrainian air force hasn't flown the Sukhoi-22 (or -20) specifically but it does fly the -25, -25, and -27, which is likely close enough in an emergency.

 

Poland also has 11 Mil-Mi8 transport helicopters purchased from Russia around 2010.

 

Poland has contracted to buy 24 of those Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkey. The first four were to be delivered this year. No idea whether they've been delivered yet but those could be easily diverted to Ukraine. Probably better used blowing up Russian armor now than being held to blow up Russian armor in the future.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/poland-signs-bayraktar-tb2-contract-with-turkey

 

====

 

Bulgaria has 6 Soviet era Mil-Mi24 attack helicopters and 5 Mil-Mi17 transport helicopters. Not exactly what Ukraine flies but the same manufacturer from the same era.

 

====

 

Slovakia has 13 Mil-Mi17 transport helicopters.

 

It previously flew a lot of Soviet aircraft but no idea what happened to the rest of it over the decades.

 

====

 

The Czech Republic has 19 Mil-Mi8 helicopters which is exactly what Ukraine flies. No idea whether the Czech copters rigged for transport only or for being a gunship.

 

15 Mil Mi-24 attack helicopters

 

====

 

Hungary has a close relationship with Putin but has

 

15 Mil-Mi24 attack helicopters

5 Mil Mi-17 transport helicopters

 

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Romania has

23-28 MiG-21 fighters. That's a few generations earlier than what Ukraine flies and was first produced in the mid-1950's.

 

====

 

Croatia has

12 MiG-21 fighters. That's a few generations earlier than what Ukraine flies and was first produced in the mid-1950's.

25 Mil Mi-17 transport helicopters, at least some of which are rigged for search and rescue.

 

====

 

Montenegro had

4 Mil Mi-8 transport helicopters which were retired in 2012. Not sure what happened to them.

 

====

 

North Macedonia has

12 Mil Mi-24 attack helicopters

 4 Mil Mi-17 transport helicopters

 

And that's their entire "air force" despite being a NATO member.

 

====

 

That's a depressingly thin list.

[archer]

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham signed a bill to extend free college tuition to most New Mexico residents. 

 

Two and four year degrees or career training certificates.

 

https://www.lcsun-news.com/story/news/local/new-mexico/2022/03/04/new-mexico-free-college-tuition-bill-signed-michelle-lujan-grisham-wnmu/9376293002/

[Cygnia]

 

[archer]

War new roundup

 

====

 

Mastercard shuts down in Russia, including such cards issued in partnership through Russian banks.

 

Visa "in coming days" will be shutting down cards issued from foreign banks from working in Russia and from Russian banks from working outside Russia. But not cards issued from Russian banks from working inside Russia.

 

(Russia, on the other hand, claims card will continue to work inside Russia because their banking system doesn't necessarily have to connect with Visa/Mastercard in order to authorize transactions. Though that seems, if true, open to widespread credit card fraud.)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/05/visa-and-mastercard-will-both-suspend-operations-in-russia

 

That was one thing Zelenskiy specifically asked for when speaking to US senators yesterday and it appears both companies responded (at least to some extent).

 

====

 

Russia detains an additional 2575 protesters Sunday bringing the total number of people arrested since protests began to over 10,000.

 

Approximately 800 protesters in Moscow and 750 in St. Petersburg managed to protest and avoid being arrested (presumably because the protesters outnumbered the policemen significantly).

 

Police used cattle prods and beat protesters with batons. I saw no reports suggesting protesters were being violent.

 

====

 

The Red Cross confirmed that Russia isn't honoring the "humanitarian corridors" in Mariupol and continue shelling the city while preventing civilians from evacuating. And preventing medicine, food, and water from coming into the city.

 

====

 

South Korea will implement export controls against Belarus for “effectively supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine”, Seoul’s foreign ministry said on Sunday, Reuters reports.

 

====

 

The Ukrainian military is reporting that Russia has suffered losses of more than 11,000 military personnel since the invasion began. A total of 285 Russian tanks and 985 armored combat vehicles were also reported to have been destroyed as well as 109 artillery systems, 44 aircraft and 48 helicopters

 

(A day or two ago, US officials said they trusted the Ukrainian numbers when it came to their announced Russian loss numbers.)

 

 

====

 

the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington has said 3,000 US volunteers responded to the Ukraine’s appeal for foreigners to join the “international legion” to help fight the war.

 

A few days ago, Ukraine estimated 16,000 foreigners had already signed up,  mostly from former Soviet Block countries (where it's easier to cross borders and get to Ukraine quickly).

 

====

 

A prominent member of the Brazilian right, Arthur do Val, a São Paulo congressman  and former supporter of Brazil’s rightwing president, is facing calls to resign after he was exposed in leaked offensive audio messages about the Ukrainian refugees.

 

In one recording, the politician says:

Spoiler

“I’ve just crossed the border on foot between Ukraine and Slovakia. Bro, I swear to you … I’ve never seen anything like it in terms of beautiful girls. The refugee queue … it’s like 200metres-long or more of just total goddesses … It’s some incredible shit … The queue outside Brazil’s best nightclub … doesn’t come close to the refugee queue here.”

In a second excerpt Do Val says: “Let me tell you, they’re easy because they’re poor.”

 

====

 

Moody's downgraded Russia's credit rating again from "junk" to "pre-default".

 

It's unknown at this point whether Russia can make the upcoming March 16th interest payment on their national debt which is owed to foreigners. Or if they'd be willing to pay if they could.

https://dcweekly.org/2022/03/06/moodys-downgrades-russias-credit-ratings-to-pre-default/

 

====

 

Some people are posting photos of extensive flooding of an urban area saying that it is Kiev and was a deliberate flooding from a nearby reservoir designed to keep Russian trucks and armor from being able to advance. No independent confirmation that the photos are real. But likely an effective tactic if true.

 

It's been three days since US government sources first characterized the convoy as "stalled".

 

 

====

 

 

This could be simple self-preservation. The Ukrainians claimed to have killed the commanders of three of the four sections the Russian army has as their command structure for the invasion.

 

====

 

Japan plans to supply Ukraine with defense equipment, such as bulletproof vests, gloves, tents and helmets (all things listed on Ukraine's wish list supplied to the EU).

 

Japan has long banned exports of all defense equipment.

 

This is in addition to the recent $100 million in humanitarian assistance and $100 million in loans for military use.

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14563974

 

 

 

[archer]

Javelin antitank missiles, the American-made weapons that can destroy Russian tanks, are stacked in steel racks awaiting quick shipment into Ukraine. A giant C-17 transport is parked on a nearby runway.

 

This is what American and NATO support for Ukraine looks like. Every day, 14 widebody jets are landing here to deliver Javelins, Stinger antiaircraft missiles and other weapons for the Ukrainians. A half-dozen of these daily arrivals are American planes.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/04/milley-ukraine-russia-weapons/

 

====

 

First, a short video showing Russians sending civilian vehicles to the front (everything from minivans to dump trucks) all already marked with the letter Z showing which Russian army group they're to become part of. (They have groups Z, V, O, and I forget the fourth one.)

 

 

Next a very long Twitter thread talking about the Russian military and their inability to function far from a working railroad (which was my understanding for years but I couldn't find a great source online doing more than mentioning it in passing).

 

A lack of vehicles means that their army can't function effectively...

 

 

 

====

 

Cyprus this week banned five Russian warships from mooring despite an agreement with Russia to grant it access to ships from the island nation's ports. They were frigates and auxiliary boats that would have moored for refueling. 

 

https://translate.yandex.com/translate?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcensor.net%2Fua%2Fnews%2F3321869%2Fkipr_zaboronyv_pyaty_viyiskovym_korablyam_rf_dostup_do_svogo_portu_zmi&lang=uk-en

 

Remember, Turkey has denied Russia the ability to move their ships from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea so they can't go home to refuel. These ships are part of the group of missile frigates which the Russians were using to menace a US carrier group.

[Lord Liaden]

All of this graphically illustrates why it's essential for any nation that wants to project its power beyond its own borders, to have friends and allies in the global community. It pains me to think how frustrating it must have been for his defense and security advisors to try to explain that to Donald Trump.

[archer]

The Russian Ministry of Defense said Saturday night it would resume its offensive in Mariupol and Volnovakha.

In a statement carried by Russian news agency TASS, the defense ministry said that "not a single civilian was able to leave Mariupol and Volnovakha along the announced security corridors."

 

Russia is blaming this on Ukrainians not stopping firing on Russian troops outside of those "humanitarian corridors"...despite there not being a ceasefire outside of those corridors.

 

The Russians also not cooperating on the humanitarian corridor out of Kiev or Kherson. In fact, I've not read any stories about the agreed-to humanitarian corridors actually working out anywhere.

 

====

 

Aeroflot, Russia’s largest airline, will suspend all flights abroad from March 8 except for flights to Minsk, Belarus since it is no longer able to book flights on the SABRE computer system.

 

Rossiya and Aurora airlines will also cancel international flights.

 

====

 

Germany's armed forces (Bundeswehr) is having an increasing number of reservists contacting them about coming back to active service and civilians contacting them to sign up. Germany ended the draft and went to an all volunteer army in 2011.

 

So it looks like the manpower supply will match up well to its vastly increased defense spending.

 

====

 

If you want to get off into the weeds of what equipment has been destroyed, abandoned, or captured on each side, I highly recommend this website. It lists not only total numbers but a breakdown of what each piece of equipment is and who manufactured it.

 

And as the website points out "Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered." So this is a list of what happened when the equipment was first identified and classified, not necessarily what happened to it eventually after a Ukrainian farmer hooked it up to the back of his tractor and hauled it away.

 

So you're looking at a snapshot.

 

But at the moment, the raw totals of what's been lost looks like this:

 

Russia - 799, of which: destroyed: 316, damaged: 10, abandoned: 147, captured by the enemy (or enemy farmers): 326

 

Ukraine - 245, of which: destroyed: 92, damaged: 4, abandoned: 44, captured by the enemy: 103

 

...so it's a heck of a snapshot.

 

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

 

 

[Old Man]

19 minutes ago, archer said:

 

But at the moment, the raw totals of what's been lost looks like this:

 

Russia - 799, of which: destroyed: 316, damaged: 10, abandoned: 147, captured by the enemy (or enemy farmers): 326

 

Ukraine - 245, of which: destroyed: 92, damaged: 4, abandoned: 44, captured by the enemy: 103

 

 

 

On another board I frequent, it was pointed out yesterday that the Russians are providing a net contribution of vehicles to the Ukrainian army (and farmers).

[archer]

24 minutes ago, Old Man said:

 

On another board I frequent, it was pointed out yesterday that the Russians are providing a net contribution of vehicles to the Ukrainian army (and farmers).

 

At least the farmers won't have to pay taxes on the captured equipment.  

[Old Man]

1 hour ago, archer said:

 

At least the farmers won't have to pay taxes on the captured equipment.  

I always wanted a T-90 tank back when I was commuting every day. 

[Pariah]

Talk about defensive driving...

[archer]

34 minutes ago, Pariah said:

Talk about defensive driving...

 

The right of way goes to the biggest guns, if I recall correctly.

[Pariah]

The version I've heard is "Incoming fire has the right of way."

[archer]

34 minutes ago, Pariah said:

The version I've heard is "Incoming fire has the right of way."

 

I never saw that one printed on the cover. But it makes sense.

[unclevlad]

11 hours ago, archer said:

====

 

Moody's downgraded Russia's credit rating again from "junk" to "pre-default".

 

It's unknown at this point whether Russia can make the upcoming March 16th interest payment on their national debt which is owed to foreigners. Or if they'd be willing to pay if they could.

https://dcweekly.org/2022/03/06/moodys-downgrades-russias-credit-ratings-to-pre-default/

 

 

And this is a big factor in wny I'm worried there may be a worldwide recession...along with the basically complete removal of Russia from world trade and finance.

[Lord Liaden]

Lyndon Johnson's "guns and butter" approach to war was never practical. Wars are messy and costly, in every sense. The wider the conflict, the more people suffer. That's why the only people who want war are those who don't believe they'll personally suffer for it, and don't care who else does.

[tkdguy]

 

[archer]

News roundup

 

 

Russia threatens to cut off LNG supply from Nord Stream 1

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/08/russia-ukraine-news-war-live-putin-peace-nato-latest/

 

I don't think they could take the financial hit from doing that but it shows where their heads are at.

 

====

 

Ukraine's navy used rockets to sink Russian patrol boat Vasily Bykov (roughly 94 m long and displaces 1500 tons). It was one of the newest ships in the Russian navy and the first of its class of ship. 

 

"Yesterday, this missile-armed colossus, which exceeds in its combat potential everything that is available in terms of the surface forces of the Ukrainian Navy, came under attack by Ukrainian naval rocket artillery. It happened in the Odessa region. The ship sank today. There is no information about the fate of the crew."

 

https://translate.yandex.com/translate?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdumskaya.net%2Fnews%2Fpodvig-ukrainskih-moryakov-pod-udar-rszo-rossiys-160920%2F&lang=ru-en

 

====

 

US supplied 17,000 Javelin Anti-Tank Weapons in 6 Days during the last week and 2000 Stingers. - NY Times and CNN

 

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The value of a ruble over the last few days has dropped from being worth one cent each to being worth 2/3rds of a cent each....which might explain this story:

 

The Russian Central Bank has asked banks to stop publishing their financial performance records

https://see.news/russias-central-bank-asks-financial-institutions-not-to-publish-records/

 

====

 

Russia to implement limits on individual purchases of essential goods to prevent potential shortages caused by hoarding (or by people spending their rubles before they become completely worthless)

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-04/card/russia-imposes-antihoarding-price-control-measures-YRKE3kS4E3EeEk34cXAU

 

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Russia has committed virtually 100% of its assembled forces to the fight inside Ukraine. Basically no identifiable units still outside Ukraine and no strategic reserve to shift to trouble spots.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-has-deployed-nearly-100-pct-pre-staged-forces-into-ukraine-us-official-2022-03-07/?taid=6226589218c5730001d501ff&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

 

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A senior Defense official says the US has corroborated reports that the Russians are trying to recruit Syrians to fight in Ukraine. Earlier it had been alleged the Russians were offering Syrians the equivalent of a $300 bonus to come fight in Ukraine. (I would suppose that's a lot of money to a Syrian?)

 

====

 

Crowdsourcing Ukrainian defense

http://supportukraine.cz/en.html

 

Also noteworthy: A few days ago Netherlands had a fundraiser for Ukrainian defense and raised an amount which was more than $10 per person in their country's population.

 

====

 

Ukraine military is showing footage of its claims of destroying 30 Russian helicopters on ground at Chernobayivka airport near Kherson (an occupied city in southern Ukraine). That'd be the biggest single day loss of aircraft by either side of the war.

 

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I don't remember if I mentioned it but Ukraine is offering to pay money and provide amnesty to Russian soldiers who surrender.

 

Ukraine has also significantly increased the pay of their country's soldiers, twice, since the war began.

 

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Anonymous is hacking into Russian TV stations and streaming services to share war news and video footage.

 

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Russia has instructed all state-owned websites and services to switch to the Russian domain name system by 11 March, according to Russian state media outlets. Perhaps a sign that Russia is beginning active preparations for disconnection from the global internet.

 

====

 

Japan to ban oil refining equipment exports to Russia. Plus extends sanctions to an additional 32 Russian and Belarusian government officials and business magnates, along with 12 entities including military-related companies.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Japan-to-ban-exports-of-oil-refining-equipment-to-Russia

 

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The blizzard is starting to hit Ukraine, and is expected to hit Russia much harder. This will either grind Russia to a halt because they have no fuel and ammo. Or the Russians have stored up enough fuel and ammo to take advantage of the weather to go on a major offensive. I'd bet on the "grind to a halt"...but I haven't been infallible since my anti-megalomania drugs started kicking in.

 

====

 

Russia is still shelling cities and the "humanitarian corridors" to agreed to set up. But their latest twist is that they're saying they're going to open evacuation corridors so the citizens of Ukraine can go to Russia or Belarus. Presumably they'd be hostages there, if current Russian behavior is any guide. Ukraine is objecting to this strenuously.

 

====

 

United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand called on Interpol to implement an immediate suspension of Russia's access to its systems.

 

Interpol issues what are known as Red Notices to request the location and arrest of an individual pending their extradition. - CNN

 

Russia's main "contribution" to Interpol for years has been to request Red Notices on opposition figures, protesters, journalists, etc. to have someone else pay to keep tabs on them and harass them.

 

====

 

Despite huge donations of humanitarian aid from various governments and a hefty amount of private donations there's only a small fraction of the money allocated which would be needed to take care of the 1.7 million Ukrainian refugees who've already left that country. And if the war goes on another two weeks, the number of refugees could easily double.

 

This is going to dwarf the flood of Syrian refugees which came to Europe a couple of years ago.

 

If I were the practical type, I'd send them to western Canada, get them as much farm equipment and wheat seed as possible, and put them to work building up cities and doing agri-business. At least until they can go home....

[Pattern Ghost]

3 hours ago, archer said:

This will either grind Russia to a halt because they have no fuel and ammo. Or the Russians have stored up enough fuel and ammo to take advantage of the weather to go on a major offensive. I'd bet on the "grind to a halt"...but I haven't been infallible since my anti-megalomania drugs started kicking in.

 

An analyst I saw the other day stated that the satellite imaging that was shared earlier on had shown no signs of fuel or ammo dumps established by the Russians. Their logistics seem to be a complete failure.