Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[archer]

French President Macron announced he's worked out a deal with Greece and Turkey (two traditional enemies) to launch an "exceptional humanitarian operation" to rescue the people still trapped in Mariupol.

 

He said he was discussing it with (or notifying) Putin shortly.

60 

Some reports imply that he's notifying Putin that it's going to happen while others seem to say that it's something he's going to discuss with Putin. So take your pick. I don't speak French and I don't know whether the ambiguity is intentional or not.

 

The first round of the French presidential election is April 10th so it could just be a publicity stunt to make it look like he's trying. France has does less militarily to help Ukraine than many other NATO countries and Macron has caught heat from that decision.

 

But if it's real, that combination of countries suggest it could be a seaborn expedition. 

 

France has an aircraft carrier leading a NATO carrier group in the area around Cyprus at the moment. A couple of weeks ago I knew the number and kind of ships and names of the ships in that task force but that information has slipped away from me.

 

France several times has used its three Mistral class amphibious assault ships in relief missions, evacuations, and such. Those ships come with a 69 bed hospital, 16 helicopters, up to four landing barges, and can carry up to 70 vehicles (or 16 of the French main battle tanks). It can accommodate 400 passengers easily and up to 900 for a short period. 

 

If there's a relief mission by sea, I'd expect the Mistral class to be an essential part.

 

Of course there's supposed to be 100,000+ civilians still in Mariupol plus an unknown number of Ukrainian soldiers and resistance fighters.

 

And the seas around Mariupol have supposedly been heavily mined.

 

And a large part of the Russian navy is now in the Black Sea between any rescue mission resources and the city.

 

I'm reminded of the Chinese blessing: "May you live in interesting times."

[archer]

I don't think this is as current as what I had earlier about the French-led carrier strike group but this was the planned deployment that was originally supposed to be from Feb 1st through April. It was scheduled to be conducting exercises with the Italian navy and the US's Truman carrier strike group before the Russian invasion of Ukraine happened...

 

Task Force 473 is built around aircraft carrier FS Charles de Gaulle (R 91) and includes European Union, NATO and French partner nations during the deployment. French Navy ships in the task group along with Charles de Gaulle are destroyer FS Forbin (D620), frigates FS Alsace (D656) and FS Normandie (D651), replenishment ship FS Marne (A630) and a nuclear attack submarine. Partner ships integrated into the group are U.S. Navy destroyer USS Ross (DDG-71), Spanish Navy frigate ESPS Juan de Borbon (F102), Hellenic Navy frigate HS Adrias (F459) and Royal Moroccan Navy corvette Sultan Moulay Ismail (614). A Hellenic Navy submarine will join the task force on Feb. 7.

 

The embarked air group aboard Charles De Gaulle includes 20 Rafale F3R fighters of Flottilles 12F and 17F, two E-2C Hawkeyes Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEWC) aircraft of Flottille 4F, 1 Dauphin helicopter and 1 Panther helicopter of Flottille 35F and 36F, respectively, and a NH90 NFH Caïman anti-submarine warfare helicopter of Flottille 31F. A Belgian Air Component NH90 helicopter is embarked on Forbin. Land-based fixed wing aircraft supporting the deployment are a French Navy Atlantique 2 maritime patrol aircraft and a U.S Navy P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft.

 

https://news.usni.org/2022/02/01/french-carrier-charles-de-gaulle-leaves-for-2022-deployment

[Iuz the Evil]

Given the events of the last month, it’s apparent that Putin grossly miscalculated. Humanitarian and economic interests aside, he did not read his Sun Tzu.

 

Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.

 

Russia has and will continue to pay a terrible price for this invasion, and has appeared to alienate themselves from the rest of the world. It has strengthened NATO as an alliance, and pushed several non-NATO nations to closer ties. Not to mention the economic apocalypse it’s unleashed.

 

 The juice was not worth the squeeze.

[Sociotard]

I've been reading about the Belarusian volunteer militia, the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Battalion, that just joined on the Ukrainian side. Sometimes this feels more like a civil war; there's a good chance Belarus itself will join soon.

[unclevlad]

It feels like a civil war in other ways, too;  the active opposition inside Russia may be small overall but it's still significant.

[Lord Liaden]

Since Putin's vision is of a "pan-Russian" people including Belarus and Ukraine, and that many of the people in all three countries think of themselves as brother Slavs, I suppose "civil war" is not a completely inappropriate characterization. But brothers don't always agree, or live under the same roof. And most brothers don't like it if one of them bosses the others around.

[Old Man]

2 hours ago, Sociotard said:

I've been reading about the Belarusian volunteer militia, the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Battalion, that just joined on the Ukrainian side. Sometimes this feels more like a civil war; there's a good chance Belarus itself will join soon.

 

If they haven't joined a month in, they're not gonna.  Lukoshenko may be stupid, but he's not stupid.  He's obviously been stalling the entire time. 

 

Furthermore, if the Russian army is how it currently is, is the Belarusian army going to be any better?

[Lord Liaden]

What's interesting is that the Russian offensive against Kyiv isn't trying to advance any more. They not only never entered the city, they never even finished encircling it. Ukrainian military have taken the offensive, and appear to be attempting to encircle the Russians. If they can do that, that Russian force will have lost. Ukraine will then be able to send troops south to support Mariupol, maybe break the siege there.

 

If this stays a conventional war, there's a good chance Ukraine can not only survive, but actually defeat the Russian invaders.

[Sociotard]

2 hours ago, Old Man said:

Furthermore, if the Russian army is how it currently is, is the Belarusian army going to be any better?

 

The Belarusians can go in with morale intact (mostly), with their own fresh supplies and no frostbite, with no loss of confidence in their leadership from having bumbled around with no plan. After a month, they may even have a plan.

 

Given the current state of the Russian force, a surge of fresh troops may break through.

[Ragitsu]

We are witnessing the strength of a global community...an interconnected world.

[Old Man]

1 hour ago, Sociotard said:

 

The Belarusians can go in with morale intact (mostly), with their own fresh supplies and no frostbite, with no loss of confidence in their leadership from having bumbled around with no plan. After a month, they may even have a plan.

 

Given the current state of the Russian force, a surge of fresh troops may break through.

Maybe. Or maybe the Belarusian army is even worse off than the Russians, and Lukashenko needs them in Belarus to keep his citizens under control. 

[wcw43921]

1 hour ago, Ragitsu said:

We are witnessing the strength of a global community...an interconnected world.

 

But how do we keep it going after this war is over?  How do we keep from falling back into nationalism and petty squabbling after the Russian troops leave Ukraine and Putin, one way or another leaves office?  Those are the questions we need to answer.

[pinecone]

5 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

If they haven't joined a month in, they're not gonna.  Lukoshenko may be stupid, but he's not stupid.  He's obviously been stalling the entire time. 

 

Furthermore, if the Russian army is how it currently is, is the Belarusian army going to be any better?

I think he fears that if the army is not present, his future will be threatened.

56 minutes ago, wcw43921 said:

 

But how do we keep it going after this war is over?  How do we keep from falling back into nationalism and petty squabbling after the Russian troops leave Ukraine and Putin, one way or another leaves office?  Those are the questions we need to answer.

Indeed...what would Kanye do?

[Cygnia]

4 hours ago, pinecone said:

 

Indeed...what would Kanye do?

Stalk & harass his ex?

[Pariah]

2 minutes ago, Cygnia said:

Stalk & harass his ex?

 

So, basically the same thing Russia is doing to Ukraine right now?

[Hugh Neilson]

6 hours ago, wcw43921 said:

 

But how do we keep it going after this war is over?  How do we keep from falling back into nationalism and petty squabbling after the Russian troops leave Ukraine and Putin, one way or another leaves office?  Those are the questions we need to answer.

**sigh**  I recall, early in the pandemic, watching the squabbling political parties in my own government actually work together to take rapid action to implement benefits to get people through the inability to work, and help businesses survive.  [Perfect?  Far from it - but programs that should take months or years to develop had to be designed over a weekend and rolled out immediately.]

 

Within 6 months, we were still in a pandemic, but back to partisan politics and divisive infighting.  It seems like we prefer mudslinging and squabbling to working together, bringing different viewpoints to the table and working out real solutions.  Certainly, it isn't the latter that wins elections.

[Sociotard]

"The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished," Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian General Staff's Main Operational Directorate, said in a speech.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-first-phase-ukraine-operation-mostly-complete-focus-now-donbass-2022-03-25/

 

Wow. The Nobel Prize in Medicine may just go to the Russian spin doctors.

[BoloOfEarth]

Why is it that every time I see the mention of Donbass in regards to the Russian invasion, that my brain automatically replaces "on" with "um"?

[Hermit]

IMO if Russia walks away with  Donetsk,  Luhansk on top of Crimea, I hate to say it, but they can claim success. Not the success they wanted mind you.

[DShomshak]

Unfortunately, yes. One reason why I think NATO *should* be giving Ukraine tanks as fast as they can be delivered. For the safety of the rest of the world, this has to be an unmitigated debacle for Putin.

 

I accept the arguments that NATO should not try imposing the no fly zone Ukraine wants, as presenting too great an escalation. (No way to do it without striking anti-aircraft systems inside Russia itself.) But international relations expert, former diplomat and public raedio talking head Ivo Daalder argues that Russia's invasion has largely been a ground war anyway, so keeping Russian planes out of Ukrainian airspace wouldn't do that much to help beleaguered cities. A few hundred tanks, though, might make a difference. (If they can be fueled, and don't get bogged down.) Maybe even enough to take back Donetsh and Luhansk.

 

Dean Shomshak

[pinecone]

This week will be decisive. If Ukraine can sustain counter attacks the Russian army may well fold up. If that happens Crimea becomes a real target for recapture. If Russia can break the counter attack (Russian doctrine is to fall back and dig in, the "rope a dope") Then they will get a stalemate, and can negotiate for a return to pre invasion status, and get it, as Zelensky does not want his troops to die for several more years.

 

I think what might come out is "Keep the Crimea" (for now) "and get out of Ukraine, including the break away areas." I think both side would agree to that. Putin may fall, but that will depend on how he can "spin" the story to the Russian People.

[Lord Liaden]

1 hour ago, DShomshak said:

Unfortunately, yes. One reason why I think NATO *should* be giving Ukraine tanks as fast as they can be delivered. For the safety of the rest of the world, this has to be an unmitigated debacle for Putin.

 

I accept the arguments that NATO should not try imposing the no fly zone Ukraine wants, as presenting too great an escalation. (No way to do it without striking anti-aircraft systems inside Russia itself.) But international relations expert, former diplomat and public raedio talking head Ivo Daalder argues that Russia's invasion has largely been a ground war anyway, so keeping Russian planes out of Ukrainian airspace wouldn't do that much to help beleaguered cities. A few hundred tanks, though, might make a difference. (If they can be fueled, and don't get bogged down.) Maybe even enough to take back Donetsh and Luhansk.

 

Dean Shomshak

 

NATO -- more specifically the US -- should reconsider that delivery of Polish MiGs to the Ukraine, ASAP. Right now the Ukrainian AF has near air parity with Russia over their own skies. If they can match or surpass Russia locally in that area, they can really support their ground offensive.

 

 

43 minutes ago, pinecone said:

This week will be decisive. If Ukraine can sustain counter attacks the Russian army may well fold up. If that happens Crimea becomes a real target for recapture. If Russia can break the counter attack (Russian doctrine is to fall back and dig in, the "rope a dope") Then they will get a stalemate, and can negotiate for a return to pre invasion status, and get it, as Zelensky does not want his troops to die for several more years.

 

I think what might come out is "Keep the Crimea" (for now) "and get out of Ukraine, including the break away areas." I think both side would agree to that. Putin may fall, but that will depend on how he can "spin" the story to the Russian People.

 

IMHO Putin will draw the line at retaining control of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as Crimea. Protecting ethnic Russians in those regions has been his rationale for intervention for years. I don't think he could sell anything less as a victory to his people, particularly after Russian soldiers come home and start telling what really happened. Plus, Putin has long claimed that NATO proximity to Russia's borders is a threat. Those regions will give him a buffer zone, or at least the appearance of one. That might be an acceptable trade-off for the remainder of Ukraine to join NATO.

 

Neither side will be happy with that arrangement, but at this point they haven't much choice but to take whatever they can stomach. Even if Ukraine proves capable of forcing Russia out of all those territories militarily -- and that's a big "if" -- that only delays the threat of a new Russian offensive.

[pinecone]

He can "spin" that "all the Natzis have been punched, so the regions can safely be returned". If it be believed, is a sepperite issue. If the Russian army folds, Moscow is in danger. So stopping Ukraine at the border is paramount. Like I said, this week (and next) will likely decide the whole thing.

[Old Man]

1 hour ago, pinecone said:

I think what might come out is "Keep the Crimea" (for now) "and get out of Ukraine, including the break away areas." I think both side would agree to that. Putin may fall, but that will depend on how he can "spin" the story to the Russian People.

 

Putin has much of Russia believing that Ukraine is populated by Nazis and that his "special military operation" is going swimmingly.  Spin isn't going to be a problem until the sanctions literally cause widespread starvation in Russia.

[archer]

Some things Putin can spin. Other things are tougher.