Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[Pattern Ghost]

8 hours ago, DShomshak said:

One reason why I think NATO *should* be giving Ukraine tanks as fast as they can be delivered.

 

Russia's already doing that for them:

 

The Ukrainian Army Has More Tanks Now Than When The War Began -- Because It Keeps Capturing Them From Russia

 

[Lord Liaden]

7 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

Putin has much of Russia believing that Ukraine is populated by Nazis and that his "special military operation" is going swimmingly.  Spin isn't going to be a problem until the sanctions literally cause widespread starvation in Russia.

 

Except that all those Russian troops who witnessed and experienced what really happened will be coming home eventually. Putin may be able to enforce a ban on any public statements, but he can't stop them talking to their families and friends. The word is going to spread.

[Old Man]

3 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

 

Except that all those Russian troops who witnessed and experienced what really happened will be coming home eventually. Putin may be able to enforce a ban on any public statements, but he can't stop them talking to their families and friends. The word is going to spread.

 

There are endless stories of Russians straight up calling their Ukrainian relatives liars, when the Ukrainian relatives are literally Facetiming them from the ruins of their homes.  Media bubbles are strong.  One would hope that as Russian troops return home (or, more likely, vanish) and sanctions cause widespread shortages, the blinders will come off.  But it's not a foregone conclusion.

[Hugh Neilson]

8 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

There are endless stories of Russians straight up calling their Ukrainian relatives liars, when the Ukrainian relatives are literally Facetiming them from the ruins of their homes.  Media bubbles are strong.  One would hope that as Russian troops return home (or, more likely, vanish) and sanctions cause widespread shortages, the blinders will come off.  But it's not a foregone conclusion.

 

"it's not a real pandemic." 

 

"The election was stolen."

 

Why is the same human behaviour overseas so surprising?

[Cygnia]

https://crimereads.com/tyrants-and-propaganda-or-the-totalitarian-need-for-total-information-control/

[Sociotard]

These videos are long but recommended. Evidently, his channel is normally dedicated to video games, but he seems to be well informed in his analysis.

 

 

 

 

[unclevlad]

Just watched the tank video.  No expert, but yeah, from some things I do know, this guy is largely spot-on.

 

Here's a point about the logistics angle.  A US tank platoon is 4 M1A1's.  They each burn 1.67 gallons per mile...yeah, not miles per gallon, gallons per mile.  So to cover 60 miles?  400 gallons total.  For one platoon.  Heck, they burn 10 gallons per hour idling...I presume that means all systems up and operating, but not moving.  This starts talking to why there've been so many abandoned tanks.

 

On the flip side, tho, the Irag War showed some of the problems with lighter vehicles:  they can be vulnerable to IEDs and RPGs.  Strykers were particularly vulnerable to IEDs because the undercarriage wasn't well protected.  OK, well, adding armor there increases the weight, therefore slowing the vehicle, increasing fuel consumption, and potentially reducing the terrain it can cross before it gets bogged down.

 

 

[Cygnia]

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/03/donald-trump-missing-phone-logs-capitol-attack

[BNakagawa]

Apparently the Russians are resorting to mounting weapons on civilian vehicles now.

 

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2022/02/russias-military-technical-solution-for-ukraine

 

I guess they get better gas mileage than their military vehicles, but now you don't even need more than small arms fire to take them out.

[Chris Goodwin]

2 hours ago, BNakagawa said:

Apparently the Russians are resorting to mounting weapons on civilian vehicles now.

 

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2022/02/russias-military-technical-solution-for-ukraine

 

I guess they get better gas mileage than their military vehicles, but now you don't even need more than small arms fire to take them out.

 

I didn't see anything in the article referring to mounting weapons on civilian vehicles.  I assume you're referring to "technicals" that were used in Somalia and elsewhere?

[Sociotard]

Yes

 

[Lord Liaden]

"Technicals" are normally a resort taken by irregular forces or insurgents without access to proper military vehicles, who have to improvise. That the regular Russian army is using them is one more profound embarrassment for them, and a sign of how severe their situation has become.

[pinecone]

It would be funny, if it was not so sad.

[Chris Goodwin]

Sure, but the article @BNakagawa linked had nothing at all to do with those sorts of technicals.  

[Lawnmower Boy]

I'm going to guess that the "technicals" are intended as anti-drone escort. Modern drone warfare seems to present serious challenges in the screening and security role. It is going to be interesting to see how a real armed forces goes about it. 

[Iuz the Evil]

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-36-summary/

[archer]

Two Ukrainian helicopters apparently had a good night blowing up a fuel depot in Belgorod, Russia. That's about 25 miles north of the Ukrainian border, maybe 75 miles from Kharkiv, Ukraine. 

 

Emergency services there report that 8 tanks with fuel are now burning, there is a threat of the fire spreading to 8 more.

 

 

 

[Old Man]

8 hours ago, Lawnmower Boy said:

I'm going to guess that the "technicals" are intended as anti-drone escort. Modern drone warfare seems to present serious challenges in the screening and security role. It is going to be interesting to see how a real armed forces goes about it. 

Not sure the Russian army still counts as a real armed force after their performance of the last month. 

[Sociotard]

They are, they just weren't built for invasion. All the problems they've had go away in a defensive war. Low morale/lack of motivation? Fixed in a snap if Russia is really defending itself. Can't extend supply lines? Not an issue fighting within Russia. Massive nuclear arsenal useless in this context? It's perfect for keeping the NATO bugaboo away.

[archer]

39 minutes ago, Sociotard said:

They are, they just weren't built for invasion. All the problems they've had go away in a defensive war. Low morale/lack of motivation? Fixed in a snap if Russia is really defending itself. Can't extend supply lines? Not an issue fighting within Russia. Massive nuclear arsenal useless in this context? It's perfect for keeping the NATO bugaboo away.

 

Garry Kasperov put out something on social media a few days ago...

 

 

One Russian to another:

 

- What's the news?

 

- We're at war with NATO!

 

- How's it going?

 

- We've lost 15,000 soldiers, 100 aircraft, and 600 tanks.

 

- How about NATO?

 

- Oh, they haven't started fighting yet.

 

 

[DShomshak]

13 hours ago, archer said:

Two Ukrainian helicopters apparently had a good night blowing up a fuel depot in Belgorod, Russia. That's about 25 miles north of the Ukrainian border, maybe 75 miles from Kharkiv, Ukraine. 

 

Emergency services there report that 8 tanks with fuel are now burning, there is a threat of the fire spreading to 8 more.

 

 

 

BBC  World Service discussed this just now. The situation may be, well, muddled. Ukraine's government neither confirms nor denies the strike in Belgorod. A Ukrainian MP opined it was more likely a Russian "False Flag" attack -- see, Ukraine is attacking Russia, we're just defending ourselves. For Ukrainian troops to cross the border and attack a target in Russia, he said, would play into Russian hands.

 

But other observers suggest the Russian announcement seems unusually muted, compared to the usual hysterical bombast of Russian accusations. Whether Ukraine did it or Russia did it, where are the accusations of genocide? Possibly the ?Russian authorities are in shock that anyone actually managed to strike into Russia. He also suggested such an attack might be illegal.

 

Or, someone suggested that oil depots have been known to catch fire by accident. It seems not totally implausible to me that a Russian depot manager might try to cover up an accoident by saying that Ukrainian helicopters did it.

 

It's a downside -- for Russia as well as the wider world -- of Russia's policy of constant lying. No claim can be trusted.

 

Dean Shomshak

[Old Man]

1 hour ago, DShomshak said:

BBC  World Service discussed this just now. The situation may be, well, muddled. Ukraine's government neither confirms nor denies the strike in Belgorod. A Ukrainian MP opined it was more likely a Russian "False Flag" attack -- see, Ukraine is attacking Russia, we're just defending ourselves. For Ukrainian troops to cross the border and attack a target in Russia, he said, would play into Russian hands.

 

The Ukrainians did it and are plausibly denying it in order to not offend Western handwringers who are terrified of "escalation".  But the denial is with a heavy wink given that they're literally using the same wording the Russians used in their disinformation.  The Russians can't call them on it because it would require admitting the Ukrainians owned them on their turf.

[Iuz the Evil]

 

There’s various footage of the helicopters shooting at the facility. I cannot speak to whether they’re Ukrainians of course, but it seems likely.

[DShomshak]

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/01/1089990539/climate-change-politics

 

A disturbing story from All Things Considered about the environmental movement's deep roots in white supremacist/nativist/far right/alt-right politics -- and there's still considerable overlap today.

 

Dean Shomshak

[Lord Liaden]

5 hours ago, DShomshak said:

He also suggested such an attack might be illegal.

 

Yeah, that one gets me. Striking back into the territory of the country that invaded you unprovoked? "Legality" left that discussion back in February.