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Simon

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1 hour ago, GM Joe said:

Looks like the Supreme Court ruling on abortion wasn't the Republican electoral disaster the pundits told us it would be. 😞

I think it was, actually. Democratic polling went up in direct response to that issue. It’s just not the only issue on the minds of the electorate, and is fading as time progresses.

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It's still a good idea.  Polls still think the Dems will hold onto the Senate.  There are races where the extreme Trumpers are not doing well.  

 

Locally, in the governor's race, the Republican attack ads have gotten more vicious and more personal...which generally suggests, their boy's losing.  And inflation's an obvious, unfortunate issue that's very easy to sell.  

 

Fortunately, this extended nightmare will end soon.  Let's just hope a far graver one doesn't take its place.

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There's a saying I once heard: "The candidate who promises to rob Peter to pay Paul can always count on Paul's vote."

 

The GQP has framed pretty much everything in this election as a zero-sum game. Namely, that any advances in rights or opportunities for immigrants, people of color, LGBTQ, or any other minority group must necessarily mean that Conservative white folks somehow have less. 

 

There are still enough Conservative white folks who buy into this line of reasoning to support the strategy. Which is why the January 6th Party still uses it.

 

Honestly, I don't know what the correct strategy for opposing this is. Education sounds like a good idea, but you can't teach anybody anything if they think they already know everything. You especially can't teach people anything if they've been conditioned to see educated people as elitists and/or the enemy. Isaac Asimov's old bit about the cult of ignorance grows more relevant every moment.

 

Appealing to emotion sounds like it should work. But the fact is you can't generate an emotional response powerful enough to overcome the hatred, isolation, and mistrust they've been force-fed for the past X number of years. 

 

Beyond trying to take care of my health so that I can live long enough for most of them to die off and let the people whe replace them actually get some things done, I'm not sure what kind of strategy I have left.

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/betting-markets-are-treating-the-midterm-elections-like-its-a-presidential-election/amp/
 

Vegas thinks the Senate is a push right now. That’s not great, but the DNC is in a better shape than they might otherwise be without the abortion issue.

 

 I’ll cross my fingers that they only lose the House.

 

 As to the impact of demographics. Well I’ve been hearing that for decades. Here’s an article on the subject.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/05/04/us/census-news-republicans-democrats.amp.html

 

 Non Hispanic White Voters are going to be an absolutely huge demographic block for the rest of all of our lives. Currently nationally 57.8% or 191 million people. And people of color are not exactly a monolithic voting block. It will be interesting to see the changes that come from shifting demographics, but I wouldn’t personally be willing to wait for demographics to result in a political sea change. That’ll take many, many years if it happens at all.

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8 hours ago, Ternaugh said:

I'm getting 2 to 10 pieces of political mail per day now, almost all of it is concerned with the Nevada Senate race. I wouldn't mind so much, but it's all on glossy cardstock, which doesn't recycle or compost easily. It seems like such a waste to just throw it away, unread, in the bin I keep next to the door.

 

Not quite that many, but we don't have a Senate race.  

--Governor:  some, but not many.  This has largely been TV ads, mostly subsidized by the national Governor's PACs

--House:  a few more, but again, mostly TV ads, heavily subsidized by the national Congressional PACs

--State hous:  TONS.  ALLLL of them, I think, smears against the Democratic incumbent.  I actually had to look up the name just now of the Republican...it's been brought up THAT rarely.  This might well be a relatively non-competitive race, tho, or at least one the Republicans have little expectation to win.  

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1 hour ago, Ragitsu said:

 

Simple demographics growth.


I ask because I’ve been waiting for “inevitable” demographics growth to defeat the GOP for three decades and it still hasn’t happened yet. Nor will it if people blindly assume that minorities will vote against the GOP.  Many minority voters are socially conservative enough to vote for a party that would deport them at the earliest possible opportunity. 

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https://www.huffpost.com/entry/fbi-email-jan-6-rioter-sympathy_n_634ad223e4b03e8038d495d7

 

Quote

In the message, the sender referred to an unnamed retired senior FBI analyst who had packed his Facebook page with “Stop the Steal” propaganda, referring to former President Donald Trump’s baseless claims that the election he lost was rigged.

 

The email noted that several agents insisted the violence at the Capitol was little different than Black Lives Matter protests. Still, Capitol rioters were being singled out because of “political correctness.”

Violence was far more significant at the Capitol riot that apparently involved a bid to disrupt the U.S. government. Nearly 900 people have been arrested and charged with crimes for involvement in the insurrection.

The writer recounted “literally” having to “explain” to a fellow agent the difference between “opportunists burning and looting during [Black Lives Matter] protests that stemmed [from] legitimate grievance to police brutality vs. an insurgent mob whose purpose was to the execution of democratic processes at the behest of a sitting president. One is a smattering of criminals; the other is an organized group of domestic terrorists,” the message added.

The divide on law and order enforcement — often impacted by racism — is so pronounced in the bureau that the email author claimed Black agents were afraid to join SWAT teams for fear their co-workers would not protect them.

 

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54 minutes ago, csyphrett said:

A report came out the Fox News is the worst as far as any standard. The writers of the report said MSNBC and CNN have to mention the same things in an effort to debunk Fox's reporting

CES

 

Do you have a link to that report?  Because there's also this report showing that Fox News is directly responsible for killing its viewers during the pandemic.

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