Sociotard Posted June 24, 2023 Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 The thing is, I can't bring myself to hope for a Russian civil war. The war in Ukraine is bad. A Russian civil war would be worse. A civil war in a nuclear power compounded by several bordering states? That's a bad situation for the whole world. Meanwhile, Wagner is definitely passing through Rostov. Here's a gas station. Unconfirmed reports that Wagner shot down a Russian helicopter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iuz the Evil Posted June 24, 2023 Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 I don’t disagree with the risks and problems associated with civil war in Russia. I do not see any likelihood that there’s another probable outcome however, since Russia has managed a semi-Democratic transfer of power like once in their entire history. And Ukraine is never going to bend the knee at this point, they’re tired but they are all in and have every expectation of wearing Russia down. They should be hoping for maximum disarray in the invading nation, and hopefully take advantage of that. It’s a difficult situation, but under no circumstances should Russia be allowed to benefit from their aggression. The risks of an emboldened Russia seeking to subjugate former Soviet bloc states is at least as great. On a positive note, the opposite has happened. NATO was strengthened, Sweden/Finland applied for membership, their military was absolutely exposed by a much smaller regional nation, and they’re facing geopolitical isolation. Whatever the narrative, one would hope this will discourage future adventurism. Hermit, L. Marcus and wcw43921 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man Posted June 24, 2023 Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 32 minutes ago, Sociotard said: The thing is, I can't bring myself to hope for a Russian civil war. The war in Ukraine is bad. A Russian civil war would be worse. A civil war in a nuclear power compounded by several bordering states? That's a bad situation for the whole world. I agree but Russian civil war was almost inevitable. There's almost no way a strongman like Putin stays in power after committing a land-war-in-Asia scale blunder like invading Ukraine and promptly losing. And there's no mechanism for an orderly transfer of power, on purpose. Iuz the Evil 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sociotard Posted June 24, 2023 Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 Remember when Zelensky said "I need ammunition, no a ride" and then stayed in Kyiv during the entire siege? Yeah? What a man. Putin urgently leaves Moscow for bunker in Valdai – Ukrainian intelligence Putin's special Il96-300PU (Control Point) aircraft departed Moscow for St Petersburg at 14:16 (Moscow time), according to FlightRadar data. The destination of the aircraft is not indicated, and it disappeared from the tracking system over the Tver area. One of Putin's residences is located in Tver Oblast. Equipment for the control of the Russian Armed Forces is installed on this aircraft. Tom Cowan, Iuz the Evil and Hermit 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hermit Posted June 24, 2023 Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Sociotard said: Remember when Zelensky said "I need ammunition, no a ride" and then stayed in Kyiv during the entire siege? Yeah? What a man. Putin urgently leaves Moscow for bunker in Valdai – Ukrainian intelligence Putin's special Il96-300PU (Control Point) aircraft departed Moscow for St Petersburg at 14:16 (Moscow time), according to FlightRadar data. The destination of the aircraft is not indicated, and it disappeared from the tracking system over the Tver area. One of Putin's residences is located in Tver Oblast. Equipment for the control of the Russian Armed Forces is installed on this aircraft. Does anyone know what Ukrainian forces are doing during this, if it's changed their plans for advance? I mean, retaking Crimea sooner rather than later might be possible? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sociotard Posted June 24, 2023 Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Hermit said: Does anyone know what Ukrainian forces are doing during this, if it's changed their plans for advance? I mean, retaking Crimea sooner rather than later might be possible? The coup hasn't really changed the front line situation, at least not yet. Russia is using their version of the national guard to stop him, as well as asking very nicely for Wagner to detain their boss. Russia has not pulled back troops to stop Prigozhin, so the Ukrainian forces aren't enjoying lesser resistance. There is one thing they are doing on the front line: L. Marcus, Tom Cowan, Grailknight and 3 others 1 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iuz the Evil Posted June 24, 2023 Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 And also… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L. Marcus Posted June 24, 2023 Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 Hey, he's had a shave! Iuz the Evil 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hermit Posted June 24, 2023 Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 It is scary how fast Wagner is moving. I remember how Putin planned to race forward in a three day sprint to Kyiv and take over. Obviously that failed, spectacularly. However, Prigozhin's Wagner might just take Moscow in that time. Mind boggling and oddly ironic. EDIT: Well, that was anti climatic Tom Cowan and archer 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L. Marcus Posted June 24, 2023 Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 Has barely been twelve hours, and Wagner is already two-thirds of the way there. archer 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted June 24, 2023 Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 Russian forces are likely totally out of position to even slow Wagner down...especially considering they were a significant component. Russia's military incompetence is playing a role as well, or multiple roles even. What *can* they call up to move into position, how bad is *their* state of readiness, given the terrible state we've seen from the troops in Ukraine? Another question is, what will the republics like Chechnya and Dagestan do? Is it possible that unrest could spread to Belarus? This is going to be a nervous summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted June 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 In regards to Russia/Wagner: things are going to be unfolding quickly, so I'd urge people to use caution in posts. This is not a site for "you read it here first" news....and in situations like this anything else may be dated and incorrect by the time it's posted. Pause, breathe, and read actual news sites if you want to keep up on this. Pattern Ghost, Lord Liaden, Sociotard and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Liaden Posted June 24, 2023 Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 That is good advice, but it's hard not to get excited. We're probably watching significant history being made, in real time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted June 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 Either way this unfolds, that is almost certainly true, but folks are trying to interpret this through the very literal fog of war. There are reports in major media of a ceasefire...depending on what you read, attributing it to a full backdown of Wagner, to a temporary pause to prevent unnecessary casualties, to a strategic pause for effect. Even the major journalism outlets are getting it wrong right now - let's not compound that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted June 24, 2023 Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 Then, may I suggest we pause posting on this for the time being? No matter what actually happens, it's probably better to let the facts emerge, and many of us are probably following things to some degree anyway. Lord Liaden and Simon 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sociotard Posted June 24, 2023 Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) Wagner took Voronezh. That puts them very close to able seize some nukes. Not able to use them, but I still don't like it. Makes my popcorn a little too salty. Let's hope they don't actually do that and just proceed to Moscow. Although it would be a little funny if they seized the nukes and Putin petitioned NATO for help to secure them. http://wikimapia.org/13694446/Borisoglebsk-national-level-nuclear-weapons-storage-facility-Voronezh-45 Okay okay I won't post on this again. Edited June 24, 2023 by Sociotard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cancer Posted June 24, 2023 Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 4 hours ago, Lord Liaden said: That is good advice, but it's hard not to get excited. We're probably watching significant history being made, in real time. Kind of like how January 6, 2021 felt, though I was lecturing in the classroom during part of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sociotard Posted June 24, 2023 Report Share Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) And like Jan 6, this coup was quite a fizzle. Lukashenko negotiated an end. Prigozhin will live in Belarus, Shoigu gets fired, amnesty for all Wagner soldiers. https://thehill.com/opinion/4066116-yevgeny-prigozhins-strange-march-to-moscow-and-back/ Edited June 24, 2023 by Sociotard Lawnmower Boy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Liaden Posted June 25, 2023 Report Share Posted June 25, 2023 It's possible Prigozhin was looking for support among the leadership cabal of Russia, which never came. He probably understood that the number of troops he had could never control a city as enormous as Moscow. But he gets to keep his private army, has safe haven in another country, and made himself a household name in Russia. The government and Russian military didn't stop him, he stopped himself. He made them, and Putin, look weak and ineffectual. And his stated motivation was to avoid shedding Russian blood, like a true patriot. If this just ended up as a PR stunt, it's a very effective one. I agree with the author of that linked article, we haven't seen the last of Prigozhin. In the meantime, does this mean Wagner troops will or won't be returning to the front lines? Without them Russia's defense will be significantly weakened against the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iuz the Evil Posted June 25, 2023 Report Share Posted June 25, 2023 It is far too early to assess the impact of this on Russia’s military efforts in Ukraine. This didn’t unfold in more extreme outcomes, or widespread civil war, but it did result in major logistical disruption and undermined morale in State media and other ways. It’s not a good outcome for Russia, it’s just a better outcome than full blown military insurrection. We will have to wait and see what unfolds from this. Definitely was not a good event for the Russian side in the current conflict. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted June 25, 2023 Report Share Posted June 25, 2023 Also can't be considered a win for Putin. If nothing else, he lost a LOT of face. I wouldn't be remotely surprised if there's a vial of polonium with Prigozhin's name on it already. archer 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranxerox Posted June 25, 2023 Report Share Posted June 25, 2023 41 minutes ago, unclevlad said: Also can't be considered a win for Putin. If nothing else, he lost a LOT of face. I wouldn't be remotely surprised if there's a vial of polonium with Prigozhin's name on it already. Yeah, I was thinking that about Prigozhin. To paraphrase Emerson, if you are going to shoot the king don't miss. Well, having seconds thoughts after if you pull your gun probably isn't too good for your health either. Sociotard 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnia Posted June 25, 2023 Report Share Posted June 25, 2023 Time to avoid all windows if at all possible... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
death tribble Posted June 25, 2023 Report Share Posted June 25, 2023 If this was Czechia or Czechoslovakia then yes, I would agree with you but dissidents have a way of being poisoned abroad especially in Britain like Litvinenko and Georgi Markov. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DShomshak Posted June 25, 2023 Report Share Posted June 25, 2023 22 hours ago, Simon said: Either way this unfolds, that is almost certainly true, but folks are trying to interpret this through the very literal fog of war. There are reports in major media of a ceasefire...depending on what you read, attributing it to a full backdown of Wagner, to a temporary pause to prevent unnecessary casualties, to a strategic pause for effect. Even the major journalism outlets are getting it wrong right now - let's not compound that. Wise words. As a longtime gamer I'm prone to try, well, guessing the movie from a clip of the first scene, but I'll try not to. Also remembering those occasions when major media breathlessly reported on fast-breaking stories and had to eat their words later, like naming the wrong person as the Newtown shooter. At least All Things Considered was fairly upfront on Saturday. Their coverage amounted pretty much to, "Um, what just happened?" Dean Shomshak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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