Coronavirus

[Old Man]

1 hour ago, unclevlad said:

Oh...****.

 

2 hours to go...a tick under 59,000 cases today.  Which means we'll very likely pass 60,000.  That's back-to-back days with significant spikes, and numbers not seen since early August.

 

That translates to around 600 Americans who will be dead in two weeks. One wonders what that total would be if we didn’t have the restrictions we currently have. 

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, archer said:

Italy makes wearing masks outdoors compulsory because their infection rates are back up to what they were in April.

 

Also ordered compulsory testing on travelers from the United Kingdom, Belgium, the Netherlands and Czech Republic.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8823393/Italy-makes-mask-wearing-compulsory-OUTDOORS.html

Oooh...I failed to realize.  Czechoslovakia has the *worst* rate in the world right now.  WorldOMeters listed it as "Czechia" and my brain didn't connect.  Their new case rate is slightly worse than 1 per 2000 people.  But, yes, those four countries have the worst surges in Europe right now.

 

And ScottishFox...is that what you want?  15,000 new cases a day in Texas rather than 5000?  Maybe 25,000?  It might not be that bad elsewhere, but Texas has far too large a stubborn, no one can tell ME what to do streak, which is largely why they were so slow in the first place.  

[Badger]

1 hour ago, unclevlad said:

Oooh...I failed to realize.  Czechoslovakia has the *worst* rate in the world right now.  WorldOMeters listed it as "Czechia" and my brain didn't connect.  Their new case rate is slightly worse than 1 per 2000 people.  But, yes, those four countries have the worst surges in Europe right now.

 

And ScottishFox...is that what you want?  15,000 new cases a day in Texas rather than 5000?  Maybe 25,000?  It might not be that bad elsewhere, but Texas has far too large a stubborn, no one can tell ME what to do streak, which is largely why they were so slow in the first place.  

Czechoslovakia  split a while ago into Slovakia and Czech Republic, probably talking about latter, though never heard Czechia actually used.

[archer]

2 hours ago, Badger said:

Czechoslovakia  split a while ago into Slovakia and Czech Republic, probably talking about latter, though never heard Czechia actually used.

 

I usually hear it as Czech Republic in the US media. 

 

Czechia is used more informally...and probably in places which are more familiar with it and which are much closer to it than the US.

 

[pinecone]

Well, during a seizure I broke one or more teeth, so I will have to go to the dentist to get them pulled, or put back together. I am not looking forward to going outside . I gave up driving when I started having seizures, so I will have to take a cab. I am already thinking about the exposure. Dang 2020, can't yah just stop?

[ScottishFox]

5 hours ago, unclevlad said:

And ScottishFox...is that what you want?  15,000 new cases a day in Texas rather than 5000?  Maybe 25,000?  It might not be that bad elsewhere, but Texas has far too large a stubborn, no one can tell ME what to do streak, which is largely why they were so slow in the first place.  

 

I'd like 0.  But I'm not convinced that we've contained it - at all.  Every day I see a good chunk of mask wearers with their nose or mouth exposed so they can breathe.  Schools have been back in session for about 4 weeks now and the case load hasn't moved much.

 

Given the amount of exposure already happening at grocery stores, gas stations, costco, etc., I think we could re-open with about the same numbers were seeing now.

[archer]

6 hours ago, pinecone said:

Well, during a seizure I broke one or more teeth, so I will have to go to the dentist to get them pulled, or put back together. I am not looking forward to going outside . I gave up driving when I started having seizures, so I will have to take a cab. I am already thinking about the exposure. Dang 2020, can't yah just stop?

 

I could probably harass a relative volunteer to come take you but considering they think the virus is a hoax and masks are even worse than that, you'd be MUCH better off in a completely unconscious in a cab.

 

Sorry to hear about that. My remaining teeth will ache in sympathy for the next several days.

[Pattern Ghost]

10,000 mink are dead in Covid-19 outbreaks at US fur farms

[Badger]

23 hours ago, archer said:

 

I usually hear it as Czech Republic in the US media. 

 

Czechia is used more informally...and probably in places which are more familiar with it and which are much closer to it than the US.

 

I had used it inside my head before because I am lazy. But, I wasn't even sure that was official or even acknowledged as a thing.

[unclevlad]

Ugh.

 

We're now at 4 consecutive days with notably higher new-case totals, relative to the last several weeks.  The last 4 Sundays have been quite consistent...a bit below 34,000.  With over 3 hours to go...it's over 40,000 today.

 

I've been conservative, myself, in calling this an upswing rather than random fluctuations, but this is too convincing.

 

EDIT:  with final numbers in....new cases, 7 day moving average broke 50,000.  Highest in about 7 weeks.

[Old Man]

Expert Forecasts of COVID-19 Vaccine Development Timelines

 

 

"Best Guess" is next September for most of us.  Happy Monday!

[pinecone]

On 10/10/2020 at 7:25 AM, archer said:

 

I could probably harass a relative volunteer to come take you but considering they think the virus is a hoax and masks are even worse than that, you'd be MUCH better off in a completely unconscious in a cab.

 

Sorry to hear about that. My remaining teeth will ache in sympathy for the next several days.

Well the follow up, broke one, cracked one. The dentist gave some silly song and dance, and in a week I will come back for a reconstruction, and a "bridge". All things considered, not to bad. Though my head is made out of broken glass and explosions till then. I do not seem to be sick, so wearing gloves, and using alchohol wipes did the trick (or I was lucky)

[BarretWallace]

6 hours ago, Old Man said:

Expert Forecasts of COVID-19 Vaccine Development Timelines

 

 

 

"Best Guess" is next September for most of us.  Happy Monday!

For my part, I still find some comfort in this.  At least it's a timeline of some kind.  Although it can (and probably will) change, it sure beats being totally in the dark.

[Michael Hopcroft]

Although I shudder to think what would happen if a.) we never get a vaccine after all, and b.) we get one, slap ourselves on the back and say "Well done!", and become totally complacent and are totally unprepared for COVID-21.

[death tribble]

8 Million cases in America and Britain is over 600,000. France is heading to 750,000 while Spain is heading towards 900,000

[Cygnia]

[archer]

15 hours ago, Old Man said:

Expert Forecasts of COVID-19 Vaccine Development Timelines

 

 

"Best Guess" is next September for most of us.  Happy Monday!

 

Frankly, I wasn't expecting a vaccine to be widely available until next fall so September is a slight improvement.

 

Not that I see this administration attempting to build storage facilities in communities around the country to house millions of doses of a vaccine which has to be kept at -110 degrees F up until the time it is administered so I'm still skeptical about September.

[Badger]

5 hours ago, Michael Hopcroft said:

Although I shudder to think what would happen if a.) we never get a vaccine after all, and b.) we get one, slap ourselves on the back and say "Well done!", and become totally complacent and are totally unprepared for COVID-21.

 

Well, I have been asking  about the former, so far no one willing to answer

[unclevlad]

Can we give Cygnia a dozen upvotes for that pic???

 

The biggest takeaway from that timeline is, of course, the utter inanity that Trump thinks he can have one by Election Day...

I am not worried that a vaccine can't be developed, as there is no basis whatsoever to expect it can't be done.  It's simply meaningless;  it WILL happen, by everything we know about biology and medicine.  A more real fear is...what if we can't develop it until, say, summer 2023?  I think we'll figure out how to function at some reasonable level, with distancing.  I think the penalties for failing to follow distancing LAWS...yes, the underlying authority would become more codified...would be much, much harsher...something like DUI laws.  First offense, not too bad;  second offense, let's go with mandatory public service;  throwing thousands in jail won't help.  After the first million die, this'll be a lot easier to sell.

 

[Cygnia]

13-year-old infects 11 family members with COVID-19 after testing negative

Quote

A 13-year-old girl is responsible for infecting at least 11 people in her family across four state lines with coronavirus, according to the CDC.

Fourteen family members, including the 13-year-old, stayed at the same vacation house for a timespan ranging between eight to 25 days, per the report.

No one wore masks or practiced social distancing. Eleven out of the 14 members tested positive for coronavirus shortly after.

 

[archer]

Scientists confirm Nevada 25-year-old got coronavirus twice, second case was more severe

 

researchers sequenced the RNA from both virus samples and found they were two different strains, making it a true reinfection... The Nevada case marks the fifth case globally of reinfection

 

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/520702-scientists-confirm-nevada-25-year-old-got-coronavirus-twice-second-case-was

 

 

[Matt the Bruins]

Is it ridiculously pollyanna-ish that I'm somewhat reassured there have ONLY been 5 verified cases of reinfection worldwide since this thing started out of almost 38 million people infected? At least that seems to imply it's an unlikely enough occurrence that the virus isn't going to just inevitably chew up and spit out the whole population until we're all isolated or dead.

[Badger]

49 minutes ago, Matt the Bruins said:

Is it ridiculously pollyanna-ish that I'm somewhat reassured there have ONLY been 5 verified cases of reinfection worldwide since this thing started out of almost 38 million people infected? At least that seems to imply it's an unlikely enough occurrence that the virus isn't going to just inevitably chew up and spit out the whole population until we're all isolated or dead.

I did get chicken pox twice as a kid, although most people only get it once and are immune.

 

Though, the first was very minor at age 4. Bad the 2nd time at age 8. (Though not nearly as bad as others in my class that year). So, I kind of wonder for those who get it twice, maybe one or both were relatively minor.

[Old Man]

57 minutes ago, Matt the Bruins said:

Is it ridiculously pollyanna-ish that I'm somewhat reassured there have ONLY been 5 verified cases of reinfection worldwide since this thing started out of almost 38 million people infected? At least that seems to imply it's an unlikely enough occurrence that the virus isn't going to just inevitably chew up and spit out the whole population until we're all isolated or dead.

 

It does, but OTOH reinfection doesn't happen with flu or measles, so the question is why it happens at all.  Is COVID immunity temporary and these folks' immunity was a little more temporary than most?  Is the virus mutating enough to circumvent immunity?  Were they never completely over it in the first place?  The reinfection phenomenon raises some really uncomfortable questions, despite its apparent rarity.

 

Meanwhile, I'd put this in another post but the damn board software would just merge it anyway, so: Excess deaths: Go ahead and raise the US death toll by another 75000

[unclevlad]

We fully expected that deaths from other causes would increase because Covid-19 consumed more resources than Thor could at Utgard-Loki's table...but the count is scary.