unclevlad Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 13 minutes ago, Cancer said: I can't post a screen capture as I would like, so in words.... Go to Washington State Dept of Health COVID-19 Data Dashboard. Dial up Confirmed Case Counts. Whitman County, WA. Prior to August 14, the largest case count reported on any single day was 6. Over the interval Aug 19-Aug 31 (and all this is within the nominal "possible incomplete reporting" interval), the smallest new daily case count was 18. Whitman County is where Pullman is, the main campus of Washington State University. First day of classes there was Aug 24. BUT, that also means the case rise started before classes. OK, you'll have quite a few students coming back a few days early, but that feels like it's too soon for this bump. I'm not saying you're wrong; https://247sports.com/college/washington-state/Article/WSU-Pullman-suddenly-a-covid-hot-spot-No-6-in-nation-for-new-cases-150959080/ reports students getting fined for violating the gathering rules. I'd like a deeper dive into the numbers, tho. Still: there will be a sizable minority of morons. It's college, for one thing; then there's that hard-core group of (insert extensive NSFW diatribe here) that feel an obligation to NOT wear masks or do any distancing. I suspect the former group is actually larger than the latter; remember spring break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 It’ll be funny if it turns out there was a summer lull and things are about to take off for real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottishFox Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 CovidTracking.com numbers are OK, but not as good as I was hoping. Texas numbers should explode in about 10 days (most schools opened up for in person this week or will next week on Sept 8th.). I think even the most stubborn people will have to admit this is much worse than the seasonal flu and its still going. But it's not as bad as the 1917-18 flu which would have killed 16.5 million Americans based on today's population. Though, that number would probably be reduced by massive improvements in health care. National: Texas: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cancer Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, unclevlad said: BUT, that also means the case rise started before classes. OK, you'll have quite a few students coming back a few days early, but that feels like it's too soon for this bump. I'm not saying you're wrong; https://247sports.com/college/washington-state/Article/WSU-Pullman-suddenly-a-covid-hot-spot-No-6-in-nation-for-new-cases-150959080/ reports students getting fined for violating the gathering rules. I'd like a deeper dive into the numbers, tho. Still: there will be a sizable minority of morons. It's college, for one thing; then there's that hard-core group of (insert extensive NSFW diatribe here) that feel an obligation to NOT wear masks or do any distancing. I suspect the former group is actually larger than the latter; remember spring break. Well, some students do arrive early, especially participants in the fraternity/sorority system. (Personal info: I was faculty there for four years in the terminal 1990s.) So in fact, this is exactly as I would have expected had I been pressed to predict back, say, about Aug 1. Tom Cowan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 20 minutes ago, ScottishFox said: I think even the most stubborn people will have to admit this is much worse than the seasonal flu and its still going. But it's not as bad as the 1917-18 flu which would have killed 16.5 million Americans based on today's population. Though, that number would probably be reduced by massive improvements in health care. On your top point: sadly, no. There is still a component that doesn't believe. On your bottom point...you have absolutely no basis for this statement, because the situations are totally different. OF COURSE an epidemic with almost no mediation techniques applied, with almost no therapy available, and which lasted MUCH, MUCH longer (18 months compared to 6) is going to yield a higher per capita death count. SO WHAT??? AND as has been pointed out: death rates are not the be-all and end-all. Even most serious (but not fatal) flu infections resolve to no long-term damage. With the coronavirus, the litany of organs damaged (long term or *permanently*) is extensive. On EVERY measure of epidemic severity, the Spanish flu rates out as about a bobcat...whereas the coronavirus rates out as a tiger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, Cancer said: Well, some students do arrive early, especially participants in the fraternity/sorority system. (Personal info: I was faculty there for four years in the terminal 1990s.) So in fact, this is exactly as I would have expected had I been pressed to predict back, say, about Aug 1. And we have heard of a few cases where frats and sororities completely disregarded the rules. Not saying it's not possible; I just like a deeper dive when I see something that doesn't look quite right. It might not take that much, because certainly, the major rise was after classes kicked in. If even 1 party became a seeder event, then the ongoing mingling as more people returned does provide a totally plausible hypothesis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnia Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Pariah, Oruncrest, pinecone and 3 others 1 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted September 5, 2020 Report Share Posted September 5, 2020 Ohhh....spit... It's only 1 day, but midnight GMT is about an hour away...and WorldOMeters shows ~ 53,000 new cases today. Highest since mid-August. One day is not a trend, as I said, but it's still worrisome. Oh gee, and it's Labor Day weekend. Oh, and now we've passed Sweden for per capita death rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnia Posted September 5, 2020 Report Share Posted September 5, 2020 pinecone, Matt the Bruins, Hermit and 2 others 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badger Posted September 5, 2020 Report Share Posted September 5, 2020 I saw a commercial for a neck mounted face shield, looks less comfortable than a dog neck cone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
death tribble Posted September 5, 2020 Report Share Posted September 5, 2020 Brazil and India now have over 4 million cases apiece. And younger members of my country act like idiots and hey presto more cases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrickstaPriest Posted September 5, 2020 Report Share Posted September 5, 2020 21 hours ago, ScottishFox said: But it's not as bad as the 1917-18 flu which would have killed 16.5 million Americans based on today's population. Though, that number would probably be reduced by massive improvements in health care. 0.0075 * 330 million = 2.475 million by today's standards. There was already about 101 million during the 1917s from what I saw, and it killed roughly 750k, give or take. So any number beyond 3 times that is unlikely. 1916 101,961,000 1.41% ScottishFox 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man Posted September 6, 2020 Report Share Posted September 6, 2020 Paradise Lost: How Hawaii Went from COVID Star to Cautionary Tale Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottishFox Posted September 6, 2020 Report Share Posted September 6, 2020 11 hours ago, TrickstaPriest said: 0.0075 * 330 million = 2.475 million by today's standards. There was already about 101 million during the 1917s from what I saw, and it killed roughly 750k, give or take. So any number beyond 3 times that is unlikely. 1916 101,961,000 1.41% You're correct. I was basing my napkin math on the virus taking out 3-5% of the population of the world, but the death rate in America was MUCH lower (675k-750k). Good catch! Thanks. TrickstaPriest 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man Posted September 6, 2020 Report Share Posted September 6, 2020 COVID effects on cardiac tissue seems like a popular topic so here's another study, in kids this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrickstaPriest Posted September 6, 2020 Report Share Posted September 6, 2020 13 hours ago, ScottishFox said: You're correct. I was basing my napkin math on the virus taking out 3-5% of the population of the world, but the death rate in America was MUCH lower (675k-750k). Thanks for the reply on this! I appreciate the callout, I was wholly like "I thought I posted this calculation like four times now!" but patience is a virtue, and I figured later that you may have been using whole-world fatality rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnia Posted September 6, 2020 Report Share Posted September 6, 2020 Old Man and Lawnmower Boy 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted September 6, 2020 Report Share Posted September 6, 2020 I wish the sense of impending doom left while I slept.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man Posted September 6, 2020 Report Share Posted September 6, 2020 Yeah it usually visits me at about three in the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
death tribble Posted September 6, 2020 Report Share Posted September 6, 2020 Reed Richards has suffered from impending Doom ever since college tkdguy and pinecone 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnia Posted September 8, 2020 Report Share Posted September 8, 2020 Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Is Now Linked to More Than 250,000 Coronavirus Cases Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarretWallace Posted September 8, 2020 Report Share Posted September 8, 2020 What is a good place to go for reliable Covid data now? My first instinct always used to be CDC, but with the recent...meddling, I'm looking for other options too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unclevlad Posted September 8, 2020 Report Share Posted September 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, BarretWallace said: What is a good place to go for reliable Covid data now? My first instinct always used to be CDC, but with the recent...meddling, I'm looking for other options too. I use WorldOMeters; I think some others use OurWorldInData. Johns Hopkins also maintains a good site. That said, I'm not sure how independent any of these are from federal sources. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnia Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 Oh, this ain't good... AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine study put on hold due to suspected adverse reaction in participant in the U.K. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tjack Posted September 9, 2020 Report Share Posted September 9, 2020 I thought of something last night...when was the last time you heard of somebody having a cold? Nobody in my family’s had one all summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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