Coronavirus

[Badger]

I just know in my area we have 16 total cases.  Seems we only get a new every 2-3 days.  with 70-80K population.  It means only 1 in 4K or so getting it.

 

Of course, 2 neighboring counties have just gotten their 1st cases, in the last week or so.

 

 

At work, this week we got issued cloth masks.   (been wearing it on and off, trying to get used to it).  Apparently, if you can breathe, it is too thin to be of any use.

[TrickstaPriest]

17 minutes ago, Badger said:

I just know in my area we have 16 total cases.  Seems we only get a new every 2-3 days.  with 70-80K population.  It means only 1 in 4K or so getting it.

 

Of course, 2 neighboring counties have just gotten their 1st cases, in the last week or so.

 

 

Yes, and that's why I constructed my arguments/information that way specifically.  It doesn't construe that rural areas cannot open up - just that people are underestimating how much damage could have been prevented, and how much damage could happen.

 

My main concern is the general US approach of re-opening everything and going out everywhere, because that didn't go very well historically.  But the history of the Spanish Flu is more complicated than just "second wave was much worse" - there are complicating factors that made it so, and it's not like it was tenfold worse (the way some have said).

 

edit:  It's mostly because the science and numbers are difficult for laymen to interpret that I go on such explanations - one size does not fit all as far as re-opening goes.  I just want people to clearly understand what the numbers actually say.

 

17 minutes ago, Badger said:

At work, this week we got issued cloth masks.   (been wearing it on and off, trying to get used to it).  Apparently, if you can breathe, it is too thin to be of any use.

 

Pretty much.

[assault]

Conceivably, rural areas have been sheltered by the lockdowns in urban areas. The latter are likely to have reduced the level of transmission to the areas outside them.

 

Part of what they were supposed to do, of course.

 

It's a bit like how Australia and New Zealand have been "fortunate". We locked down soon enough to prevent much community transmission, with most of our cases being related to international travel.

Clusters related to cruise ships have been particularly notable, with the worst case possibly being related to political string-pulling by influential members of political parties and/or influential churches. This is being investigated, although under conditions that don't inspire confidence.

[Old Man]

[Badger]

11 minutes ago, Old Man said:

 

Wouldn't that be called irony

[TrickstaPriest]

3 hours ago, assault said:

Conceivably, rural areas have been sheltered by the lockdowns in urban areas. The latter are likely to have reduced the level of transmission to the areas outside them.

 

Part of what they were supposed to do, of course.

 

It's a bit like how Australia and New Zealand have been "fortunate". We locked down soon enough to prevent much community transmission, with most of our cases being related to international travel.

Clusters related to cruise ships have been particularly notable, with the worst case possibly being related to political string-pulling by influential members of political parties and/or influential churches. This is being investigated, although under conditions that don't inspire confidence.

 

Possibly.  I'm not sure how well we can actually contain this.  I'm not morally opposed to re-opening parts of the country that are relatively safe, but I had to step in and talk about the numbers because of how wildly-swinging the numbers being given are.

 

We aren't likely to have a million dead at this rate, unless something really wildly bad happens.  We also can't say how much of the 'second/third/etc' waves of Spanish Flu was caused by mutation or just the relaxing of restrictions.  But I also wanted to stress that the population clusters that have been seriously hit by this appear to have taken more death than ever in living memory - and that taking even a single week too slow probably cost us a quarter of the lives we've lost.

[Badger]

5 hours ago, TrickstaPriest said:

 

Yes, and that's why I constructed my arguments/information that way specifically.  It doesn't construe that rural areas cannot open up - just that people are underestimating how much damage could have been prevented, and how much damage could happen.

 

My main concern is the general US approach of re-opening everything and going out everywhere, because that didn't go very well historically.  But the history of the Spanish Flu is more complicated than just "second wave was much worse" - there are complicating factors that made it so, and it's not like it was tenfold worse (the way some have said).

 

edit:  It's mostly because the science and numbers are difficult for laymen to interpret that I go on such explanations - one size does not fit all as far as re-opening goes.  I just want people to clearly understand what the numbers actually say.

 

 

Pretty much.

 

Yeah, several others did go with some plastic facemask type (looks like a clear "welder" mask).  Not really feasible, for me,  I realized in my mind quick, I would probably in my job whack one hand or another on it about 15 times an hour.  THe cloth mask does seem to be quasi-helpful during disinfecting duty......in lessening my exposure to breathing that  (I have occasionally had to go get a little fresh air, maybe I am just more sensitive to it, I don't know)

 

Of course, with my large head, I can barely get those straps around my ears.  

[ScottishFox]

Well, the Texas Grand Opening could be off to an interesting start.  We haven't even opened yet and 4/30/2020 plunked in a big spike in cases.  I've been tracking the trend line in ye olde Excel and...

 

 

that's the direction that says we shouldn't open.  It'll be interesting to see what they do.

 

Death count is at 812, but we've had flu seasons that have gone as high as 3500 so I'm not sure how compelling this will be for the Governor.

 

I suspect this will get ignored and the re-opening will continue until the mid-May re-evaluation.

 

On a related note - the meat shortage appears to be a real thing.  Costco is generally flush with food - especially the butcher shop and the pork and chicken were all but gone.  Like big areas of blank white refrigerator.

 

 

 

[Doc Democracy]

8 hours ago, Badger said:

I just know in my area we have 16 total cases.  Seems we only get a new every 2-3 days.  with 70-80K population.  It means only 1 in 4K or so getting it.

 

Of course, 2 neighboring counties have just gotten their 1st cases, in the last week or so.

 

As a microbiologist, my worry is that there are such cases appearing.  Where are they coming from? 

 

It probably means there are significantly more than 1 in 4K getting it, there are obviously folk with minor or no symptoms transmitting the virus and it is only those with serious enough symptoms that are being recorded.

 

This would be an ideal time for your area to test and contact trace - there are probably few enough that you could find everyone with the virus and stop even the small amount of spread being reported.  And then noone would need the masks.

 

Problem is that when the impact is so small, there is little incentive to spend the cash to stamp it out completely but when the incentive is big enough, it is too big to stamp out completely...

[Starlord]

Case spikes can sometimes be misconstrued.  Last week or so in Ohio we had a massive one day case spike and found out a couple days later that they had gotten around to full inmate testing and posted all the results that day.

[megaplayboy]

5 hours ago, ScottishFox said:

Well, the Texas Grand Opening could be off to an interesting start.  We haven't even opened yet and 4/30/2020 plunked in a big spike in cases.  I've been tracking the trend line in ye olde Excel and...

 

 

that's the direction that says we shouldn't open.  It'll be interesting to see what they do.

 

Death count is at 812, but we've had flu seasons that have gone as high as 3500 so I'm not sure how compelling this will be for the Governor.

 

I suspect this will get ignored and the re-opening will continue until the mid-May re-evaluation.

 

On a related note - the meat shortage appears to be a real thing.  Costco is generally flush with food - especially the butcher shop and the pork and chicken were all but gone.  Like big areas of blank white refrigerator.

 

 

 

Flu season is 8 months.  The first US case of COVID was about 100 days ago.  Those 800 deaths have mostly happened over the last 30 days.  3500 deaths over 8 months is about 400 per month.  

[Cygnia]

[Cygnia]

[Badger]

9 hours ago, Doc Democracy said:

 

As a microbiologist, my worry is that there are such cases appearing.  Where are they coming from? 

 

It probably means there are significantly more than 1 in 4K getting it, there are obviously folk with minor or no symptoms transmitting the virus and it is only those with serious enough symptoms that are being recorded.

 

This would be an ideal time for your area to test and contact trace - there are probably few enough that you could find everyone with the virus and stop even the small amount of spread being reported.  And then noone would need the masks.

 

Problem is that when the impact is so small, there is little incentive to spend the cash to stamp it out completely but when the incentive is big enough, it is too big to stamp out completely...

 

As far as possibilities of where they can come from.  I had a cousin who was working in Asia when it hit (Vietnam, but I never can remember).  I think he was quarantined for a couple days when he got back.  (I think one person on flight had some telltale signs, so they needed to test him first, but I cant remember all the details.  It was about a month ago)

 

So, an isolated case of that or 2, could probably get a place started.

 

Note: and my cousin, 60 years old, and a heavy smoker until he got pneumonia a few years ago.  So, he dodged a bullet, I'd say.

[Ragitsu]

 

... ... ...

 

 

[unclevlad]

The US now has the 9th highest death rate per capita in the world, among the nations with large populations.  For this purpose, I take out San Marino, Andorra, Sint Maarten, Isle of Man, the Channel Islands, and Montserrat;  they have higher rates than the US, but the largest of these is the Channel Islands with ~ 175,000 population.  Of the countries left in (in order of highest to lowest rates:  Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France, Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland, Switzerland, then USA) the smallest population is ~ 5M.  So the small countries become potential outliers.

 

 

[ScottishFox]

2 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

The US now has the 9th highest death rate per capita in the world, among the nations with large populations.  For this purpose, I take out San Marino, Andorra, Sint Maarten, Isle of Man, the Channel Islands, and Montserrat;  they have higher rates than the US, but the largest of these is the Channel Islands with ~ 175,000 population.  Of the countries left in (in order of highest to lowest rates:  Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France, Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland, Switzerland, then USA) the smallest population is ~ 5M.  So the small countries become potential outliers.

 

 

 

I wonder why our rate is so high (possibly because so many of us are fat, hypertensive, diabetic, etc.) and why the rates vary so massively place to place.

I'd love to hear some science behind those differences because at first glance something looks off. 

Even within the state of New York the rates vary considerably.

 

New York State death rate:  123.59 per 100k

New York City: 219 per 100k  ( This is the only one beating out the traditional winners of heart disease, cancer, etc.  This is catastrophically bad.).

Texas: 2.89 per 100k 

California: 5.34 per 100k 

South Dakota: 2.37 per 100k 

 

Those are differences of more than 40 to 1 vs. New York State and almost 100 to 1 vs. New York City.

 

 

 

 

[Cygnia]

[unclevlad]

55 minutes ago, ScottishFox said:

 

I wonder why our rate is so high (possibly because so many of us are fat, hypertensive, diabetic, etc.) and why the rates vary so massively place to place.

I'd love to hear some science behind those differences because at first glance something looks off. 

Even within the state of New York the rates vary considerably.

 

New York State death rate:  123.59 per 100k

New York City: 219 per 100k  ( This is the only one beating out the traditional winners of heart disease, cancer, etc.  This is catastrophically bad.).

Texas: 2.89 per 100k 

California: 5.34 per 100k 

South Dakota: 2.37 per 100k 

 

Those are differences of more than 40 to 1 vs. New York State and almost 100 to 1 vs. New York City.

 

Welcome to random variables with very high variance.  Some places will get crushed, while others dodge the bullet.  But there's more bullets out there.

Look at Nebraska.  Go back to early April...very few cases.  Last 10 days?  Looks like 4 days with 300+ new cases that day, in that period.  Even within Nebraska, using the NY Times county-level data, you've got Dakota and Seline Counties that had nothing, it looks like, until 7-10 days ago.  Douglas County has 700 now.  Even narrower?  Nebraska's health people have put some work in:

 

https://dogis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/21bec056a9a6449abcca89a329868fd6  and

https://dogis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/21bec056a9a6449abcca89a329868fd6

 

The X axis labeling is done badly;  it's too long.  But expanding across a couple monitors...the left edge is March 6th;  the major ticks represent a week.  So on March 27th, about 40 cases.  in 5 weeks, about 17x that.  The case total doubled between April 3rd and Aprl 17th...but between April 17th and today, May 1st...it's 2.5x higher.  That's not good....but that is the coronavirus.  I mean, to paraphrase Allen Funt...

 

Don't be surprised if sometime, somewhere, someplace when you least expect it, someone steps up to you and says.... 'Smile, you've got a major Covid-19 'outbreak in your area.' 

 

[Badger]

well, I have heard stories with the Black Plague, where some village disappeared from the map as the population got completely wiped out.  while other villages (perhaps even not too far away from a former) never knew there was a plague going on.

[csyphrett]

Here in Forsyth, most of the cases seem to be tied to Tyson Chicken for some reason. 56+ for employees and friends of employees

CES 

[Old Man]

2 hours ago, csyphrett said:

Here in Forsyth, most of the cases seem to be tied to Tyson Chicken for some reason. 56+ for employees and friends of employees

CES 

 

That's because Tyson Foods insists its employees keep working in close quarters.  But they're mostly minorities so you can multiply cases by 0.3.  /s

 

I'm also tired of seeing people online compare three months of coronavirus deaths with annual death rates for flu, cancer, or auto accidents.  Fortunately Hero gamers are good at math so I'm sure that doesn't happen here.

[Ternaugh]

Las Vegas had another round of layoffs yesterday, as the casinos are trying to deal with not opening in the near future, and conserving cash reserves. My company announced layoffs, as well as a staggered schedule to reopen some properties, once the go-ahead is given. They are paying wages through May 15, and health benefit premiums through September 30 for those affected. My co-worker and several other folks I know were laid off, but I'm still employed and being paid at least through the end of May.

[csyphrett]

51 minutes ago, Ternaugh said:

Las Vegas had another round of layoffs yesterday, as the casinos are trying to deal with not opening in the near future, and conserving cash reserves. My company announced layoffs, as well as a staggered schedule to reopen some properties, once the go-ahead is given. They are paying wages through May 15, and health benefit premiums through September 30 for those affected. My co-worker and several other folks I know were laid off, but I'm still employed and being paid at least through the end of May.

Good luck with this Ternaugh

CES

[Iuz the Evil]