Coronavirus

[Cygnia]

[Cygnia]

[ScottishFox]

Recent testing in New York has suggested that over 20% of the people already have Covid-19 antibodies.  Statewide the rate is around 13.9%.

Cuomo said if the 13.9% statewide infection rate holds true, that would suggest a total amount of infections of around 2.7 million statewide, with a 0.5% death rate.

 

Full Article: https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/04/23/coronavirus-survey-reveals-13-9-percent-in-new-york-have-covid-19-antibodies-cuomo-says/  (100% NewsGuard rating).

 

Currently in Texas we're looking at 651 deaths and we'd have to reach 20,155 deaths to match New York's numbers (assuming 13.9% infection rate and 0.5% mortality rate).

Sweden, which is intentionally going for herd immunity, would have to reach 7,110 deaths using the same rates.  They are currently at 2,274.

 

My suspicion that we were doing more harm than good with the lock downs is growing.

 

 

 

 

[Cygnia]

[megaplayboy]

17 minutes ago, ScottishFox said:

Recent testing in New York has suggested that over 20% of the people already have Covid-19 antibodies.  Statewide the rate is around 13.9%.

Cuomo said if the 13.9% statewide infection rate holds true, that would suggest a total amount of infections of around 2.7 million statewide, with a 0.5% death rate.

 

Full Article: https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/04/23/coronavirus-survey-reveals-13-9-percent-in-new-york-have-covid-19-antibodies-cuomo-says/  (100% NewsGuard rating).

 

Currently in Texas we're looking at 651 deaths and we'd have to reach 20,155 deaths to match New York's numbers (assuming 13.9% infection rate and 0.5% mortality rate).

Sweden, which is intentionally going for herd immunity, would have to reach 7,110 deaths using the same rates.  They are currently at 2,274.

 

My suspicion that we were doing more harm than good with the lock downs is growing.

 

 

 

 

2 things:

"Herd immunity" involves having about 70% of the population previously exposed and effectively immune, so they can't pass it on and the rate of spread diminishes.

The WHO has stated that it's "not yet proven" that previous infections of COVID confer immunity to subsequent infection.  Until that's proven, herd immunity isn't even a thing.  

 

So we're far short of the infection levels necessary for herd immunity, and there's not even definitive proof we can achieve it yet.  A 0.5% Infection fatality rate would mean a million deaths if 70% of our population were infected.  Even 0.1 would mean 200k deaths.

[Ragitsu]

[assault]

1 hour ago, ScottishFox said:

Currently in Texas we're looking at 651 deaths and we'd have to reach 20,155 deaths to match New York's numbers (assuming 13.9% infection rate and 0.5% mortality rate).

Sweden, which is intentionally going for herd immunity, would have to reach 7,110 deaths using the same rates.  They are currently at 2,274.

 

My suspicion that we were doing more harm than good with the lock downs is growing.

 

The population of Australia is only slightly smaller than that of Texas.

 

We have what is probably a more intensive lockdown than Texas.

 

Our current number of deaths: 83.

[Michael Hopcroft]

In positive news, I will probably be receiving my check this week, possibly as early as today (the check was scheduled to be mailed last Friday, and my tax refund took three days between mailing and arrival over a weekend).

 

Unlike a lot of people who will be receiving one, I am in a position where my bills get paid with the money I have coming in and I have not lost that money to the plague (how well it will hold up politically I don't know -- this is the first time I have heard proposals that would essentially defund Social Security). So I have funds to take care of things that have been sitting idle -- but not all of them.

 

But this leaves me to wonder how much of the check I should keep. I need to pay tithing on it, and I can use some of it on back tithing and a generous charity offering. But I'm trying to figure out which of my wants are needs. And I'm remided that for everybody else their needs will not be met at all by this check.

 

 

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, megaplayboy said:

2 things:

"Herd immunity" involves having about 70% of the population previously exposed and effectively immune, so they can't pass it on and the rate of spread diminishes.

The WHO has stated that it's "not yet proven" that previous infections of COVID confer immunity to subsequent infection.  Until that's proven, herd immunity isn't even a thing.  

 

So we're far short of the infection levels necessary for herd immunity, and there's not even definitive proof we can achieve it yet.  A 0.5% Infection fatality rate would mean a million deaths if 70% of our population were infected.  Even 0.1 would mean 200k deaths.

 

And as we've pointed out...5 to 10 times that number requiring ICU beds.  Which would run out, and without the higher level of support...what's the death rate going to be like?  What would the indirect death rate be...because every ICU bed is filled with CV patients, and others who would need them to survive can't get in?

 

The core, first point is that social distancing is an attempt to flatten the curve.  NOT to reduce the overall numbers, but simply spread them out.

 

A problem with easing the restrictions is, people are bloody damn idiots.  They'll not limit themselves to just returning to the workplace;  they'll hit the parks, the churches, the beaches...in too-crowded ways, with less efforts to try to contain the spread.  Yes, it's going to have to be done.  We can't remain in near-stasis for very long.  I'd prefer a slow approach, tho.

 

 

[Cancer]

I had my blood drawn for a COVID-19 test this morning.  We'll see.

[death tribble]

And a nation began to feel nervous.....

 

as Boris Johnson returned to work.......

[Steve]

8 minutes ago, Cancer said:

I had my blood drawn for a COVID-19 test this morning.  We'll see.

 

How much did they take? I’ve heard it was just a pinprick’s worth.

[Cygnia]

 

I Can’t Tell if It’s a Bad Idea to Have Sex in My COVID-19 Hospital Unit

[Old Man]

4 Myths About Antibody Surveys Like the Recent Ones in New York

 

Tl;dr:

1. Myth: Antibodies Equal Immunity

2. Myth: Infection Rate Must Be Higher Than We Thought

3. Myth: We Can Reopen Everything Now

4. Myth: Reinfection Risks Are Known

 

This article doesn't even touch on the bias problems with the New York and Santa Clara surveys.

[Pariah]

Free downloadable PSA posters!

 

Some of the best examples:

      

[Iuz the Evil]

There is really no option to not ease restrictions from current levels over the next 12 to 18 months. That is literally impossible and will not happen, for many reasons including but not limited to things like current absence of preventative health care and dentistry, lack of political will, public compliance, and ongoing economic impact. A measured approach, with ongoing social distancing, mask requirements and so forth is inevitable. We are already planning for it. 

 

It needs to be thoughtful, measured and with ongoing case monitoring and tracking. There may need to be restrictions that ease then later tighten up. This has always been about managing surge and ICU impact, mitigation and not full prevention. 

 

California's governor will be providing a press conference at noon on what needs to be in place. (There are 6 factors we need in place and all aren't there yet)

[Old Man]

1M cases.

[Cygnia]

My father-in-law's dealing with shortness of breath.  He's at the doctor's now, getting tested.

[Matt the Bruins]

I'm just glad my mother is both retired and sensible. She's practicing social distancing with the few people she interacts with in person, and letting my cousin and me deliver her groceries. And we can keep this going as long as need be, until there's a vaccine or an effective treatment that staves off ICU stays in the elderly.

[Cancer]

3 hours ago, Steve said:

 

How much did they take? I’ve heard it was just a pinprick’s worth.

 

Several CCs.  More'n one, less than five.  I am squeamish enough I don't look at it while it's going on.

[Old Man]

Ha, I do that too.  And I get irritated when the phlebotomist is all "Are you feeling okay?  Are you feeling okay?!"  FFS lady I'm not gonna pass out, it just hurts less if I don't watch the needle go in.

[Old Man]

[Cygnia]

All we need now are the right proportions...

[Bazza]

[Cygnia]

Top E.R. Doctor Who Treated Virus Patients Dies by Suicide