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Steve

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Denmark invents Omicron variant that is even contagiouser than Omicron, which itself was five times as contagious as Delta which was three times as contagious as wild type

 

The plot at https://hub.gke2.mybinder.org/user/corneliusroemer-pectrum-jupyter-ehhcyvvp/voila/render/plots.ipynb?token=22dIF_P5RniZLa-T0Xd1zQ shows that BA.2 has grown to account for 50% of all Omicron variants in Denmark within the last 30 days.  Fortunately it appears to be no more severe than the other Omicrons.

 

Thanks, Denmark.

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On 1/21/2022 at 7:54 PM, Cygnia said:

Found out earlier this week that a woman I saw & gamed regularly at Origins got COVID.  Apparently, she refuses to get vaxx'ed because she's suspicious of what's in it.  She's not a healthy woman to begin with.

 

Oh, but she'll be at Origins this year, you betcha! 😕

So? I know people at work that had the shot AND the booster and still out for Covid. 

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On 1/13/2022 at 12:18 AM, Old Man said:


I’m in the same boat. I have several relatives of advanced age and one who caught stage 4 cancer. I don’t live with them but I do have to help them out now and then. 
 

Meanwhile my kids are still going to in person school, with substitute teachers since the regulars all have COVID. I’m doomed. 
 

The good news is that the latest Pfizer study has Omicron as 1/10 as lethal as Delta. So unclevlad’s 1.2M cases will only result in 1200 dead, not 12,000. Hooray…

But what is the death rate for other diseases such as the Flu? What is the death  rate compared to accidents? Heart disease? (Which I’m a bigger candidate for)? Why is Covid singled out?

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1 hour ago, Ninja-Bear said:

But what is the death rate for other diseases such as the Flu? What is the death  rate compared to accidents? Heart disease? (Which I’m a bigger candidate for)? Why is Covid singled out?

 

Covid is singled out because it is ten times as contagious as the flu and infinitely more contagious than accidents or heart disease.

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Also, death is not the only significant potential outcome from catching COVID. Its symptoms can persist for months, even in young healthy people, impairing their functioning. The virus can also have permanent effects on not only the lungs but other organs, including heart, kidneys, brain, and nervous system, leading to chronic breathing difficulties, heart disease, kidney failure, even paralysis.

 

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351

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2 hours ago, Cygnia said:

You're making sense, Old Man...that's not allowed on the internet!

 

My bad.  Let me try again: Influenza killed 61,000 Americans between October 2017 and February 2018, a five month period widely regarded as an unusually severe flu season.  Covid has killed 40,000 Americans in January, and January isn't over.

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2 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

My bad.  Let me try again: Influenza killed 61,000 Americans between October 2017 and February 2018, a five month period widely regarded as an unusually severe flu season.  Covid has killed 40,000 Americans in January, and January isn't over.

 

With all the precautions taken by the American public in 2020/21 against COVID, deaths due to influenza that season totaled 646. That includes ONE death of a person under age 18, compared to 195 the previous year.

 

https://hive.rochesterregional.org/2020/01/flu-season-2020

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4 hours ago, Lord Liaden said:

Also, death is not the only significant potential outcome from catching COVID. Its symptoms can persist for months, even in young healthy people, impairing their functioning. The virus can also have permanent effects on not only the lungs but other organs, including heart, kidneys, brain, and nervous system, leading to chronic breathing difficulties, heart disease, kidney failure, even paralysis.

 

 

tl; dr - unlike D&D, you are not either dead, dying or fully functional.  Diseases can have significant, long-term adverse effects.

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And even if you completely recover, unless you've got VERY good insurance, your share of a 2 week stay in the ICU is likely to be PAINFUL.  And the stress for you, your family, your friends....while the resistance of the anti-vaxers is boggling generally, I am utterly flabbergasted when they have kids.  What...a hospital trip for one of your kids doesn't *terrify* you?  

 

I will admit to being too self-centered, thus never married, never have had a kid.  But even I get that much.  

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You know what's probably the worst side-effect of really suffering through COVID-19 (well, nothing is quite as bad as either death or living in a crippled state brought on by hubris)? Anyhow, if you were against vaccines while running around with a like-minded crowd and then you change your stance on vaccines following your bout of debilitation...would those same people be sympathetic to you? Are you now distanced from those who shared in that unanimity of feeling? Are you the Cylon to their mankind?

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11 hours ago, Ragitsu said:

You know what's probably the worst side-effect of really suffering through COVID-19 (well, nothing is quite as bad as either death or living in a crippled state brought on by hubris)? Anyhow, if you were against vaccines while running around with a like-minded crowd and then you change your stance on vaccines following your bout of debilitation...would those same people be sympathetic to you? Are you now distanced from those who shared in that unanimity of feeling? Are you the Cylon to their mankind?

I was never against vaccines, but they have nonetheless introduced divisions that I didn't know existed before.  From my Saturday night gaming group, a high school classmate of mine and his dad were both hospitalized for Covid in December.  I learned that neither of them had gotten the jab, which made me the fool.  I had met with that group for many Saturdays assuming that all were vaccinated.  (They are getting their jabs now, which helps).  I don't think this has created a permanent rift in our relationship, but I have decided not to attend Saturday games until case counts in Minnesota at least start trending down.  For me, that really hurts.  My better half enjoys not going out, but for me, that's been one of the hardest parts of the last two years.  I've even attended our Scout troop's virtual meetings just to hear people's voices (and see the faces of those who, unlike me, are not too cheap to buy a webcam).

 

From the sound of it, both my classmate and his dad are recovering nicely, or as nicely as one does recover.  Strangely, this doesn't surprise me with the dad, as he is north of 80 but a tough old cuss, and his mind remains tack-sharp.  I just hope we can gather a few more times before he decides he's had enough of this world (somehow, I suspect that that's how he'll leave this world, when he's darn good and ready).

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On 1/25/2022 at 9:04 AM, Old Man said:

 

Covid is singled out because it is ten times as contagious as the flu and infinitely more contagious than accidents or heart disease.

Actually, I think traffic accidents can have some useful comparisons to Covid.

 

Consider: We are told to do various things to make driving safer. Speed limits, traffic lights, seat belts, etc. They do not guarantee you will never have a traffic accident, but make them less likely to happen, and less likely to kill you when they occur.

 

Traffic accidents are also "contagious" in that one person's bad luck or bad judgement can harm other people, too.

 

Suppose 20%, or whatever, of drivers refused to go along with these safety measures. They think accidents can't happen to them. Nobody they know died in a traffic accident, it must be all a hoax. Traffic laws are intolerable, tyrannical assaults on their FREEDOM!!! Or other narcissistic fantasies. They don't wear seat belts, they drive 100 mph, don't signal, etc. Accidents will go up. A lot. And they won't be the only ones who die.

 

Because that's the nub: In traffic and in public health, there's a limit to what you can do to protect yourself. You can never say, "Ha, I'm safe, screw the rest of you." What people around you do matters at least as much as what you, personally, do. It's a social contract: You follow the rules to protect everyone else, and they follow the rules to protect you. It's no guarantee, but everyone's odds get better.

 

So get your jab. Wear your mask. Avoid crowds when possible. Encourage the people around you to do the same. The life they save may be yours.

 

Thus endeth the sermon.

 

Dean Shomshak

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Speaking of sermons...

 

I looked up one of the most famous phrases about human interdependence and found it came from a sermon. I thought it was a poem, but it was a sermon by one of England's greatest poets. The subject was Christian faith, not public health, but it still fits as a rebuke to narcissism.

“No man is an island entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main; if a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as any manner of thy friends or of thine own were; any man’s death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind. And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.”

-- John Donne

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